Small upper level impulses help to force a weakly organized mesoscale convective system during the late afternoon into early evening in East Tennessee, generating a few instances of severe straight line wind damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Small upper level impulses help to force a weakly organized mesoscale convective system during the late afternoon into early evening in East Tennessee, generating a few instances of severe straight line wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 2:15 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 315 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Key Messages: 1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a marginal damaging wind threat. 2. Quiet overnight but another round of scattered storms expected again tomorrow afternoon. Discussion: Upper heights will continue to fall across the region as an upper low over the Great Lakes deepens through the period and goes on to form a synoptic scale trough across the eastern CONUS leading into the long term period. Locally, shortwave energy is rotating through the Tennessee valley this afternoon and evening in the base of that developing trough/upper low to our north. In response, showers and thunderstorms firing along a line just coming off the Cumberland plateau area this afternoon, should continue to increase in coverage through the evening hours. Mesoanalysis shows somewhere around 1,500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE in place across much of the CWA, along with strong low level lapse rates. Shear is lacking though, with effective bulk shear of 25kt or less...and that is maximized up closer to the TN/KY border. All things considered, expect much of the convection to be your run of the mill summertime thunderstorms. However thermodynamic profiles would support an isolated damaging wind gust this afternoon so I wouldn't be surprised to see that occur. Would expect that to be more likely in the southern plateau and southern valley areas due to locally higher instability and downdraft CAPE values there. Expect convection to die off fairly quickly this evening, leaving mostly dry conditions in place. We will see increasing jet support aloft, with the forecast area lying beneath a strengthening right entrance region. Forecast soundings do show some meager elevated instability as well. As such, can't completely rule out an isolated shower or two over our northern counties tonight. But I think that's the exception to the rule though. Confidence isn't the greatest in how Saturday plays out. We'll be well ahead of a front that will push through during the long term period. So we won't have that as a forcing mechanism. Thus convection during the day tomorrow will be largely diurnally driven, with any upper level forcing being subtle shortwave activity moving through. Current PoPs reflect scattered activity tomorrow afternoon, with a relative favoring of southern areas where instability will be greatest. But lack of a distinct forcing mechanism means this is somewhat of a low confidence forecast. In terms of severe weather threats tomorrow, the threat will be a little higher. Shear will be better, more along the 30-35kt range for effective shear versus today's 20-25kt. So, a slightly better environment still favoring damaging winds, but still not a widespread severe weather type day. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Key Messages: 1. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday, with a lower chance of showers in northern sections Monday. 2. Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures expected for much of next week. Discussion: A broad cyclonic flow will be over the eastern Conus at the start of the period, with the center of a closed low over the Great Lakes. Disturbances rotating around this low will keep PoPs in the high chance to likely range for Sunday, culminating in some categorical PoPs Sunday afternoon with the passage of an upper level trough axis and a surface cold front. Instability and shear look too limited to pose a severe threat. More stable conditions develop on Monday on the back side of the trough with a NW flow pattern through the column. However, some moisture wrapping around the closed low may bring showers to northern sections. The categorical NBM PoPs for Monday look way too high for this pattern and will be cut back significantly, to chance/slight chance. A large high pressure ridge will be developing over the Plains early in the week, with the surface high having a slow eastward drift to New England through the rest of the forecast period. This pattern will favor dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Expect highs on Tuesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with dewpoints dropping into th 50s on Tuesday. A slight warming trend can be expected for the rest of the week, but remaining near to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Still expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to develop across east TN through this evening. Previous timing was a little too quick so I bumped it back to the 20z-21z timeframe. Should see a definitive break in convective activity this evening and overnight. One caveat could be KTRI where some ISOLD SHRA may redevelop before daybreak as upper support draws near, but not confident enough to include that right now. Lastly, several guidance sources show fog or low clouds developing tonight north of the I-40 corridor. Think this largely depends on mid/high clouds clearing out and whether terminals see rain. Given at least some uncertainty there, will leave that out of TAFs for now as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 70 91 / 50 60 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 70 86 / 50 40 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 69 85 / 50 40 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 66 80 / 70 20 60 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CD LONG TERM....DGS AVIATION...CD
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 243 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-171845- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 243 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 /143 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat, along with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times Saturday. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat, along with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Any reports of thunderstorm damage or flooding Friday and Saturday will be appreciated.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
TNZ042-044-161945-
Washington TN-Northwest Greene TN-
301 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST
CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tusculum, or over Greeneville, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Greeneville, Tusculum, Limestone, Davy Crockett Birthplace, Chucky,
and Telford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3611 8280 3621 8286 3635 8261 3615 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 246DEG 17KT 3617 8278
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DGSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
TNZ081-099-161945-
Sequatchie TN-Hamilton TN-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SEQUATCHIE AND
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/...
At 302 PM EDT/202 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dunlap, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Dunlap, Soddy-Daisy, Walden, Lakesite, Fairmount,
Harrison, Cartwright, Flat Top Mountain, and North Chickamauga Creek
Gorge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3520 8537 3520 8539 3522 8540 3527 8546
3527 8549 3534 8548 3537 8525 3536 8523
3538 8521 3539 8514 3514 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 263DEG 21KT 3527 8542
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DGSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
418 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
TNZ014-015-VAZ001-162100-
Claiborne TN-Hancock TN-Lee VA-
418 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN
HANCOCK AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Mary Alice to near Hutch to Fonde. Movement was
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Sneedville, Jonesville, Pennington Gap, Harrogate, Cumberland Gap,
Ewing, Arthur, Powell River Preserve, Rose Hill, and Pattonsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3677 8283 3652 8314 3650 8355 3657 8396
3659 8387 3658 8369 3662 8365 3667 8352
3667 8342 3671 8330 3674 8314 3678 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 279DEG 20KT 3678 8336 3661 8357 3659 8386
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
427 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
TNZ067-068-083-084-086-162115-
Rhea TN-Northwest Monroe TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Meigs TN-
427 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RHEA...CENTRAL
LOUDON...NORTHEASTERN MEIGS AND SOUTHERN ROANE COUNTIES THROUGH 515
PM EDT...
At 427 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockwood, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lenoir City, Kingston, Sweetwater, Rockwood, Loudon, Fairview,
Midtown, Philadelphia, Paint Rock, and Eagle Furnace.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 8482 3583 8479 3582 8478 3586 8473
3588 8472 3585 8427 3559 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 279DEG 20KT 3579 8470
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
428 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
TNZ035-036-067>069-162115-
Anderson TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Knox TN-Morgan TN-
428 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN...
NORTHEASTERN LOUDON...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX AND
NORTHEASTERN ROANE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Oliver Springs, or 9 miles north of Kingston, moving
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Lenoir City, Kingston, Farragut,
Oliver Springs, Harriman, Oakdale, and Coalfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3593 8458 3607 8453 3608 8404 3583 8412
3584 8412 3585 8413 3585 8415 3584 8414
3581 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 279DEG 20KT 3600 8446
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BWThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:53 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and powerlines blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts. Utility estimated 1300 customers without power.
Numerous trees and powerlines blown down throughout the county by severe thunderstorm wind gusts with an estimated 1400 customers without power.
Numerous trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts in the Paint Rock community. The Dollar General in the community sustained minor roof damage during the severe winds.
A tree blocked one lane on Lovell Road in Farragut, additionally a powerline was blown down by severe thunderstorm winds on nearby Kingston Pike.
Multiple reports of trees blown down by powerful thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts, bringing down powerlines and breaking electric poles at the base.
A large white pine tree, along with large limbs from other trees, were blown down by severe straight line thunderstorm wind gusts.
Two small trees were blown down on Macon Lane by severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few other scattered trees in Seymour lawns were also blown down.
Numerous trees and powerlines down across the county due to severe thunderstorm wind gusts with 4400 customers without power.
The ASOS weather station at Tri-Cities Regional Airport recorded a 59 mph gust during a severe thunderstorm.
A half dozen trees were felled by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1211318, 1211319, 1211350, 1211327, 1211320, 1211325, 1211324, 1211326, 1211321, 1211322, 1211323.