Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 16 to 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening

- Hot and humid Saturday with heat indices in the 105F range along
the OK State Line

- Next chance for rain will Sunday night and into Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A weak frontal system is currently draped across Central Kansas this
afternoon.  An area of convection is already moving off the high
plains and approaching the Smokey Hills.  Some of this activity is
severe and is expected to continue through the afternoon.  Low level
is shear is rather good with hodographs having a good "fish hook"
look to them.  925mb-850mb moisture is rather good in Southwest
through South Central Kansas this afternoon.  This is likely to be
the main area where thunderstorms will develop.  CAPE vales are in
the 1700-2000 J/Kg range and lapse rates are in the 5C-7C/1000ft
range. While this is decent, it is not great so it will not inhibit
thunderstorm activity but is will not really help it either. All
this said, severe thunderstorms are expected as the low level shear
and moisture thickness values can't be ignored.  300mb jet stream
winds are in the 55kt-70kt range which is better than yesterday and
will help hail development.  At this time, could see hail up to 2
1/2 inches and winds up to 75 mph with the strongest storms. South
Central Kansas also appears to have the best chances for the severe
weather during the mid to late afternoon.

Saturday will have little to no chance for rain as ridging and
subsidence builds into the region.  Winds will be light and out of
the east and southeast.  Tds look to remain in the low 70s across
the region and air temperatures in the 90s.  Areas along the
Oklahoma State line are likely to be in the upper 90s.  Given the
high air temperatures and Tds in the 70s, heat indices are likely to
be in the 103F to 108F range.  As such, a heat advisory was issued
for the Southern tier of counties for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and into Monday, a frontal system will be pushing through the
region.  Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible over much
of the region.  Timing and intensity of this activity is in doubt
but most of the ensembles at this time are pushing the main axis of
activity to the west of the region.  This will bring the
temperatures down Monday and will likely keep temperatures just a
shade below normal for this time of year through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected for this TAF period.
Thunderstorms will be possible through 06Z tonight. Some of
these storms could be severe with winds up to 70kts. That said,
do not expect the terminals to see this level of wind but also
can't rule it out. Will handle changes with AMDs. After 06Z to
08Z, the thunderstorm activity will abate and leave VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ082-083-
091>093-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
427 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
427 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening
across portions of central Kansas and near the Oklahoma border in
southern Kansas. The main risks will be damaging winds of 60 to 70
mph and hail up to around golf ball size possible. Pockets of very
heavy rainfall are possible as well, which may support localized
flooding.

Triple digit heat indices may linger in rain-free areas this evening
in southern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices up to 107 are forecast Saturday afternoon over
southern Kansas. See the latest heat advisory for details.

Periodic thunderstorm chances are possible late Saturday night
through Tuesday morning or Wednesday morning, mainly during the
nighttime through morning hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

KSZ067-082-161745-
Reno KS-Kingman KS-
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RENO AND NORTHERN
KINGMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pretty Prairie, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hutchinson, Kingman, South Hutchinson, Haven, Pretty Prairie,
Arlington, Partridge, Yoder, Cheney Lake, Kingman Airport, Cheney
State Park, and Mt Vernon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 9812 3805 9770 3774 9770 3773 9781
      3761 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 284DEG 35KT 3784 9805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

KSZ048-161945-
Ellsworth KS-
213 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ELLSWORTH COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilson, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Wilson, Kanopolis, Ellsworth Airport, Kanopolis Lake, and
Kanopolis State Park.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 206 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9793 3859 9793 3870 9849 3886 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 276DEG 38KT 3877 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LAWSON