High Wind in Washington, November 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
223 AM PST Mon Nov 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring widespread breezy to
locally windy conditions to the region today. Winds will create
hazardous surf conditions along the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile,
heavy mountain snow may create difficult travel conditions above
3500 feet through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are then
expected midweek before unsettled weather returns Friday and
beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A strong Pacific frontal
system will impact the Pac NW today with several impacts to
western WA including strong wind, heavy mountain snow and high
surf.

Much of region will be breezy to windy today as this system moves
into B.C. Expect gusty south winds ahead of this system early
this morning with highest winds over the coast and north interior
(Everett northward). Winds will then switch to westerly (mid
morning) and increase this afternoon and evening with a strong
push down the Strait of Juan de Fuca (impacting Admiralty inlet
area). Gusts to 50-60 MPH possible with each scenario. Elsewhere,
winds mainly gusting in the 30-45 MPH range with winds easing this
afternoon.

Up in the mountains, we're expecting snow showers in the Cascades
with heavy accumulations possible (aided by strong, westerly
upslope flow). Initially, snow levels will hover around or above
4000' but will quickly drop to 3000-3500' tonight with snow
impacting the higher Cascade passes like Stevens Pass. Expect
lesser amounts at Snoqualmie Pass.

And for the rain, up to an inch is forecast along the coast with
0.25-0.50" in the interior. The wettest period will be this
morning.

In addition, this system is generating high seas with swells
reaching +20ft leading to high surf conditions - a High Surf
Advisory is in effect for the coast.

Showers lingering into Tuesday with onshore flow and light warm
frontal precip but overall the weather will be quieter compared to
Monday. Heavy mountain snow showers will decrease by mid morning.

High pressure brings dry but cooler weather as we move into
Wednesday. Morning lows will drop into the 30s for most spots with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. 33

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...High pressure keeps the
region dry and overall quiet weather-wise through Thursday.
Temperatures will be cooler, though, with morning lows in the 30s.
The pattern changes Friday through the weekend as the flow aloft
becomes more westerly/zonal. This opens the door with additional
fronts tracking through the region for more rain, wind and
mountain snow. 33

&&

.AVIATION...Strong west to northwesterly flow aloft as an upper
level trough moves over the region. Ceilings remain a mix of VFR and
MVFR across the region, with radar beginning to show light rain
coming onshore as the cold front approaches western Washington.
Expect ceilings to gradually this morning ahead of a cold front,
with ceilings likely lowering to MVFR with locally IFR conditions
along the coast between 09-12Z and in the interior around 14z-18z.
Rain could limit visibility to 2-4SM in heavier showers at times.
Following the frontal passage Monday afternoon, expect largely VFR
conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

Southerly winds will continue to increase this morning along the
coast to 15 to 25 kts, with gusts up to 30 to 40 kts possible. Winds
across the interior will follow suit, with gusts likely up to 25-30
kts. Winds across the north interior (KPAE northward) will likely
see locally higher gusts to 35-45 kts. Strong low level winds would
elevate the risk of LLWS between around 15-19Z as the front moves
through.

KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning with rain beginning to move
into the region. Expect ceilings to lower around 16-18Z with the
frontal passage to MVFR, with occasionally IFR conditions possible.
Visibility may be limited at times to 2-5SM in heavier rain.
Ceilings will return to VFR this afternoon as early as 21Z and
remain so through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will continue to increase this morning with winds around 15 to
20 kts with potential gusts up to 25-30 kts. Winds will start
southerly then turning west/southwesterly this afternoon behind the
frontal passage. Winds will begin to decrease late tonight after
around 09Z Tuesday.

LH

&&

.MARINE...A strengthening low pressure system will continue to move
northwestward towards Haida Gwaii, with a robust cold front
approaching the area and moving through the coastal waters later
this morning. Winds are beginning to increase and will continue to
do so through the morning hours. Winds will increase to gale force
across most of the area waters, first southerly ahead of the front
then switching to westerly behind. This will send a strong push of
west winds down the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon, lingering
into this evening. Strong gales with frequent gusts reaching storm
force, up to 50 to 55 kt, with a Storm Warning in effect for the
Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. Gusts may also reach up
to 50 kt through the northern most coastal waters zones. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for most of the remaining area waters.
Puget Sound and Hood Canal remain under a Small Craft Advisory
primarily for the southerlies ahead of the front; the area looks to
be shadowed from the westerly push.

High pressure will slowly build back over the offshore waters
Tuesday into Wednesday for calmer marine conditions. A weak cold
front looks to approach the area waters Friday into next weekend.

Seas 15 to 18 ft early this morning will rapidly rise later this
morning to 18 to 23 ft, with up to 25 ft waves possible in the outer
coastal waters. Seas will peak Monday afternoon behind the frontal
passage before beginning to slowly decrease tonight into Tuesday.
Bar conditions will remain rough with another strong ebb Monday
evening nearly coinciding with the largest waves. Seas will remain
above 10 ft through at least early on Wednesday. Seas will then
hover between 5-8 ft through the remainder of the week.

LH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Warning until 2 PM PST this afternoon for North Coast-
     San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Strait of
     Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for Central Coast-
     East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Lower
     Chehalis Valley Area-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Central Coast-
     North Coast.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for West Slopes
     North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central
     Cascades and Passes.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for West Slopes
     South Central Cascades and Passes.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Tuesday
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
     10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern
     Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Puget
     Sound and Hood Canal.

&&