Multiple rounds of training heavy rain along a slow moving frontal boundary affected Southern and Eastern Missouri from the 4th through the 6th of November. Western fringes of the WFO Paducah county warning area in Carter County received 4-6 inches of rainfall in this span.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of training heavy rain along a slow moving frontal boundary affected Southern and Eastern Missouri from the 4th through the 6th of November. Western fringes of the WFO Paducah county warning area in Carter County received 4-6 inches of rainfall in this span. Many locations further west and north from West Plains to Hillsboro in Missouri reached 7 to 10 inches of rainfall. Street flooding was reported in Van Buren early on the 5th. Water levels on the Current and St. Francis Rivers surged, reaching minor flood at Van Buren and Patterson while Doniphan went well into moderate flood, causing inundation of several structures on the 7th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 5:14 AM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 514 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A risk of heavy rain continues over the western counties of southeast Missouri. Another round of heavier rain is expected across the entire region Tuesday morning and afternoon. The ground appears to have the capacity to soak in the forecast rainfall without major flooding concerns. - There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms through this afternoon across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a smaller risk across the rest of the region Tuesday morning through the afternoon. - A generally active period of weather is then forecast, with fairly high uncertainty on the details as a front washes out over the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Broad and deep troughing is very slowly moving eastward out of the Rocky Mountain region. Ahead of the trough there is a jet maxima over eastern TX/AR and IA/MN with a broadly diffluent region rounding the top of a mid Gulf of Mexico ridge. This has created a sharp height/pressure gradient in the lower atmosphere leading to a relatively uncommon overnight breeze, and fairly strong moisture and warm air advection. The southerly winds are pumping rich and deep moisture into the Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water values are about 1.7 inches which is at the maximum of the climatological record. The aforementioned area of broad diffluence appears to be responsible for the focused area of heavy showers and embedded thundershowers over southwest and central MO/IL and it will likely move over parts of our SEMO and SIL counties through this morning. This area of diffluence persists but becomes more ill- defined later this afternoon as a 120-130 kt upper jet maxima forms over KS/MO as the parent trough begins to approach. Persistent and efficient showers and embedded storms can be expected either over or near our SEMO/SIL counties with the exact axis obviously somewhat hard to define. Rainfall will be efficient and HRRR/HREF runs paint 2-5" inches of rain into parts of Carter and Ripley County, which seems reasonable. With mid-level lapse rates steepening and rich boundary layer moisture there is at least some threat of surface based convection this afternoon and favorable shear profiles may support an isolated tornado or damaging wind event over our northwesternmost counties. There is reasonable agreement in CAM guidance that convective focus then shifts to the west in the early overnight Monday before moving back over our western counties around midnight. With strong large scale ascent and boundary layer theta-e advection we should maintain roughly whatever convective instability we start the overnight with and some wind/tornado threat can't be ruled out. Heavier rain with PWATs 1.7-1.8" will also be possible and parts of Carter/Ripley/Wayne/Butler MO have 3-5 inches total rain explicitly forecast in the new QPF grids. For now though given the very dry conditions/high flash flood guidance and the separation of this morning and then tomorrow mornings activity a flash flood watch does not currently appear warranted. The surface cold front then very slowly moves through the day on Tuesday. The upper level flow is pretty much parallel to the front -leading it to stall- and the run-to-run trend has been to linger rain/thunder chances over our southeastern counties on Wednesday with an incomplete frontal passage. The ECMWF then knocks the surface front well to our south and dries it out, but the GFS and ensemble members keep a fairly weak front in vicinity. Based on the upper jet pattern I tend to think the GFS solution is more likely and the NBM pops keep 20-40% chances through much of the rest of the week. Predictability is low however with broad spread, even in GFS ensemble members. By the end of the week a fairly provocative closed low/negative tilt trough ejects over the central plains in GFS/ECMWF guidance. There are timing differences and there is the mitigating factor of potential tropical cyclone #18 possibly being in play in the central Gulf of Mexico. The verbatim timing of the systems in deterministic guidance would call for a wet Friday and especially Saturday with heavy rainfall potential in play as well as some severe potential. But predictability remains quite low in ensemble guidance and run-to-run continuity is pretty mediocre as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Rain, isolated thunderstorms and MVFR cigs will be a concern through about 16-17z in the CGI/MDH/MVN corridor and west from there. More isolated MVFR cigs are possible through the next 3-4 hours before conditions should improve. Gusty south winds 20-25 kts can be expected through much of the day and into the overnight tonight. Another round of more widespread showers and storms should begin working into the area Tuesday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 217 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-050830- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White- Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin- Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick- Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 217 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 /317 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of southeast Missouri through this afternoon. Several inches of rain will be possible but ground conditions are expected to limit flood potential. There is a marginal risk of a few severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Damaging wind is the primary hazard but a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a small risk for a strong or severe thunderstorm or two Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible area wide, but ground conditions should limit widespread flood potential. Unsettled weather with a stalled front somewhere near or over the region is then forecast through the rest of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. JGG
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 191 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:57 UTC.
3 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple roads flooded in Van Buren. Radar estimated rainfall overnight into the morning was around 1.5 to 2.5 inches.
Minor flooding occurred along the St Francis river at Patterson. The flooding was mainly of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas.
River levels on the Current River at Doniphan rose into minor flood with an initial crest during the morning hours of the 6th, with a surge of water pushing river levels well into moderate flood cresting at 21 feet early morning on the 7th. River levels dropped below flood stage by the evening hours on the 7th. Nearby streets flooding and some structures were inundated with water near Doniphan.
Minor flooding occurred along the Current River at Van Buren with mainly bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1223282, 1223428, 1223284, 1223283.