Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Missouri, November 4 to 8, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
402 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Tuesday. Confidence is high in several inches of rain,
  with widespread totals of at least 2-5" by the end of the
  event, with localized amounts up to 6-9" confined to narrow
  corridors beneath training storms. The heaviest rainfall axis
  is expected to be along and south of a Gainesville to Salem
  line.

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) Excessive Rainfall Risk for
  Monday, and a Flood Watch is in effect for portions of SE KS
  and far S MO until 6am Tuesday due to anticipated rainfall.

- Severe Outlook Today and Tonight: Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk
  for portions of southwest Missouri and a Slight (level 2 of 5)
  Risk for most of the rest of the Missouri Ozarks. Damaging
  winds would be the primary threat with the line of storms,
  though a scenario with higher-end instability could result in
  the threat of several tornadoes, some strong, embedded within
  the line.

- There is a signal for another active period late week, with
  30-50% PoPs returning Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal (in
  the 60s) from Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

Tough forecast and busy weather for the next 24-36 hours.

Slow-moving upper-level trough remains elongated from the Canadian
Rockies through the Four Corners with a strong jet positioned
leeward of the trough axis. SGF is positioned within the right
entrance region of this jet, with very strong divergence evident on
the 00Z upper air analysis just upstream of us. 00Z ROAB clocked a
PWAT value of 1.34", which is over 200% higher than normal, and the
moisture is still riding into the Ozarks on the low-level jet from
the Gulf. A low-level warm front is clearly evident along a tight
theta-e gradient at 850mb, with frontogenesis not only ongoing but
strengthening along this axis of isentropic ascent oriented from
central Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas towards St. Louis. This
low-level warm front is where ongoing heavy rain and convection is
focused, with a trailing stratiform rain region with less efficient
precipitation rates extending back through southwest Missouri.

The leading line of precipitation will hold together (see: train) as
it slowly moves east, but the trailing stratiform region will start
breaking up and decreasing in coverage through the morning. That'll
give a couple intermittent breaks in showers and storms to the areas
behind the isentropic boundary before this afternoon convection.
However, the strengthening low-level jet is flowing right up the
boundary, which will keep storm development (and most efficient
precipitation rates/highest accumulations) constrained to the
axis of the boundary. The axis where we expect the most
precipitation from this morning's round of rain remains
consistent with previous forecasts, along and perhaps slightly
south of a roughly Gainesville to Salem line.

Increased confidence in this location has been reaffirmed by
the consistency of evening CAMs. Rainfall totals within this
corridor remain in the 2-5" range because of this, especially
because spread of precipitation totals continues to decrease and
hone in on this range. Due to the line's convective nature, the
highest totals (between 6-9") will remain within narrow,
confined bands where the most efficient updrafts form. The line
of training thunderstorms will also decrease in coverage as
they move northeast, but at a far slower rate than the trailing
stratiform rain showers behind it. Any break in the rain the
eastern Ozarks could get would be brief and begin in the late
afternoon, though this break would similarly be composed of
scattered showers rather than a complete clearing.

That said, the Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of
southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and south-central Missouri
until 6 AM Tuesday. We might be able to clear some western
counties sometime during the day today if precipitation
underperforms out west, but for now, I'm opting to keep the
Watch going out there due to the anticipated storms this
afternoon. Confidence is high that the eastern half of the Watch
is most likely to see flooding beginning this afternoon. Small
creeks are beginning to rise, and some river flooding is
possible as the runoff moves downstream.

Instability has been enough for thunder with ongoing storms but not
much else, and has highly limited how strong these overnight storms
have been able to get. This will be the continuing theme through
this morning, with future severe potential contingent on the
accessibility of instability. However, if the atmosphere can
recover behind the line/to the west of training storms and
instability can build ahead of the cold front, the severe risk
will increase this afternoon into this evening, especially
across southwestern Missouri. CAMs have been persistent in a
corridor of 60kts+ of 0-6km bulk shear and at least 40kts of
0-3km bulk shear, and concerningly, some models have starting
breaking out semi-discrete convection forming ahead of the
QLCS/cold front before merging into the line. CAMs may still be
overdoing the instability and being a little overenthusiastic
about severe storm potential, but all it would take is 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to get things popping late this afternoon.
Supercells would be a messy, mixed mode ahead of the front and
any storms that form deep updrafts would support all hazards at
first, including hail up to the size of quarters, damaging winds
up to 60-70mph, and tornadoes.

The line associated with the cold front this evening into Tuesday
morning is going to be the main event. The threat would again be
conditional, with the condition being available instability. If
potential prefrontal storms leave enough instability, there would
not only be a damaging wind potential of 60-80mph along LEWP-y bows
embedded in the line, but a very high QLCS tornado threat as well.
The high(er) instability scenario would yield several embedded
tornadoes in the line in this evening into overnight hours, and some
of those tornadoes could be strong. An Enhanced (level 3 of 5)
Severe Risk has been extended further northeast, encompassing
portions of southwest Missouri as far northeast as Lake of the
Ozarks, which also includes Springfield, Branson, and Lebanon.
Portions of this risk south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65 have been
flagged as having a conditional significant tornado risk as well.

The rain and severe storms pose an additional hazard to consider...
since rain began Saturday night, Baxter Springs KS has seen over 6"
of rain, and a large swath of accumulations of 3.5" or more extends
northeastward from Baxter Springs up to Truman Lake. These
accumulations have saturated soils, and saturated soils increase the
likelihood of tree and power line damage with any strong
thunderstorm winds, even if they remain sub-severe (below 58 mph).
As rain continues to fall, soils will only become more saturated,
making wind damage easier to come by.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

Rain will end early Tuesday afternoon as the cold front and upper-
level jet streak push east. High temperatures on Tuesday will vary
based on how fast the front moves. Generally, temperatures will span
the 60s with lowest temperatures furthest west and remaining in the
upper 60s further east. Temperatures through the end of the week
will be mild and seasonable in the 60s during the day and 40s at
night.

The upper-level pattern will remain relatively unsettled, with
guidance indicating another trough ejection into the Plains as early
as Thursday or as late as Friday night. Though timing of that upper-
level wave remains in question, PoPs begin to increase into the 20-
30% range Thursday, with widespread 40-50% PoPs by Friday evening.
Nonetheless, a similar slow-moving upper trough setup to what we're
seeing now would yield an extended period of elevated precip
chances. However, any further details would depend on timing,
location, and track of the upper trough, which will not be well-
resolved until the current system pushes out of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

The TAF period will consist of multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms of varying intensities moving into the region from
the southwest, with some storms developing in/around the
terminals (especially JLN) on Monday afternoon. South-
southeasaterly winds persist, sustained around 10-15kts with
occasional gusts up to 25-30kts tied to storms in the area.
Low-level jet continues pushing northward around the terrain,
strengthening to 50kts+ on Monday afternoon and increasing low-
level wind shear concerns. Heavy rain (rainfall rates 1-2"/hr)
within storms will significantly decrease visibilities to
IFR/LIFR at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Nov 4 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 4:

KSGF: 59/1994 		Forecast: 60

Record Precipitation:

November 4:

KSGF: 2.32/1994 	Forecast: 2.79

KJLN: 2.16/1994 	Forecast: 2.39

KVIH: 1.91/1994 	Forecast: 3.05

KUNO: 2.20/1994 	Forecast: 4.89

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ066-077-078-082-083-
     088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
745 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
745 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms across Oklahoma will move into the area
overnight. The area of concern for strong to marginally severe
storms has shifted southward to along the Missouri/Arkansas
border. If enough instability develops then storms could be
severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph and a tornado embedded
within a line.

Heavy rainfall rates could lead to flooding overnight where storms
move over the same areas. Currently areas southeast of Interstate
44 have the highest chances of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Storms will likely redevelop Monday afternoon and evening, with a
risk for severe storms if instability increases, especially in
the far southwest corner of Missouri. The primary hazards with
this severe activity would be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
a few tornadoes embedded within the squall line. Additional
locally heavy rainfall will occur with this activity, with the
highest flood risk being in the eastern Ozarks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
213 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

MOZ097-105-040900-
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
213 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OZARK AND SOUTHERN
HOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CST...

At 213 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Gainesville to 8 miles north of Fawn Park to
Ozark Regional Airport. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains, Norfork Lake, Gainesville, Bakersfield, South Fork,
Brandsville, Tecumseh, Pottersville, Caulfield, Udall, Hardenville,
Siloam Springs, White Church, Moody, and Peace Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9252 3657 9252 3679 9210 3689 9166
      3679 9166 3679 9168 3655 9167 3650 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 231DEG 46KT 3660 9240 3652 9234 3637 9244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise