A deep surface low moved across the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the United States through January 13. In the wake of a trailing cold front south of this low pressure system, winds gusted to over 60 MPH in Grayson and Smyth counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A deep surface low moved across the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the United States through January 13. In the wake of a trailing cold front south of this low pressure system, winds gusted to over 60 MPH in Grayson and Smyth counties. This led to over 1200 power outages in the region, with the majority of outages in Smyth County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 2:49 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
249 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move into
New England today. This system will bring strong wind gusts to
the area into this afternoon. An Arctic front arrives Sunday
leading to unseasonably cold air through much of next week. Low
pressure moves across the southeast Tuesday which could bring us
snow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Strong winds and gusts
- Up to an inch of snow western Greenbrier this morning.
Cold air advection in the wake of the departing storm system
will bring scattered snow showers to the mountains and strong
gusty winds. Some light accumulation of snow is possible in the
WV highlands otherwise little or no accumulation. Main story
today will be the wind with healthy westerly winds, similar to
what occurred with the previous storm with gusts in the 40 to 55
mph range. A Wind Advisory is in effect into this afternoon.
Decreasing clouds and winds are expected this evening. There is
a shortwave that will move over the Ohio Valley overnight,
which will bring a blanket of clouds over the mountains, maybe
light snow/flurries to western Greenbrier.
Temperatures today will only warm into the 30s across the
mountains and into the 40s east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures
will dip into the 20s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EST Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Strong winds with Arctic Front Sunday, and some mountain snow
showers
2) Light snow accumulations possible Monday into Monday Night
Arctic front pushes across Sunday. Models have a surge of winds
behind it, where gusts to 40 mph or more could happen along the
mountains. At the moment, forecast soundings show mixing up to
40kts at isolated locations, so let another run of models occur
before potentially having another wind advisory Sunday.
The other story is the very cold air piling in Sunday behind
the front as 8h temps fall from 0 to -8C early Sunday morning
prior to dawn to -4 to -14C. This will also be accompanied by
snow showers/flurries in the mountains, where a dusting to an
inch possible mainly from Mt Rogers to western Greenbrier along
higher ridges.
This shot of very cold air will moderate ever so slightly but
not much, which will lead to any precip arriving with a 135kt
upper jet Monday to be in the form of snow. Models and the
ensembles are in pretty good agreement on the location of the
jet, though the Canadian shows more qpf/stronger system Monday.
Ensemble mean and pattern does favor some light snow
accumulations Monday-Monday night across most of the forecast
area with higher amounts in the mountains where up to 3 or 4
inches is possible, with a dusting to possibly an inch in the
piedmont.
Still some time to work this out, but at the moment this is
mainly a jet induced snow event as the main front and deeper
moisture stay along the Gulf Coast. Best chance of snow looks to
be Monday afternoon-Monday night.
As for temperatures, look for steady or falling temps in the
mountains Sunday in the 30s, with 40s east. Wind chills at time
sink into the teens Sunday across the west.
Winds are going to diminish Sunday night as high pressure works
in from the northwest, and also cloud cover increases ahead of
the southern jet. This will keep temps from falling further but
lows in the teens to lower 20s will be around 5 to 8 degrees
below normal.
With clouds and snow chances Monday, am not confident that the
mountains will be getting out of the 20s for highs, but will
hedge on colder side of guidance with 20s across the higher
ridges/WV mountains to lower to mid 30s elsewhere.
Temps will drop into the teens WV mountains to 20s elsewhere
Monday night as cloud cover remains along with a chance for
snow.
Tuesday into Tuesday night, most models/ensembles take the low
further offshore this period. Will trend down on pops Tuesday
but not take them out keeping with low chance of snow. The 00z
ECMWF and most of its ensemble members have been shunting this
system south and east during this time keeping us dry and cold,
and looks like the 00z GFS Ensembles are leaning this way as
well, with some western slope snow.
The highs Tuesday will be in the 20s in the mountains to lower
30s across the New River Valley to upper 30s across the east.
The second shot of Arctic air arrives Tuesday night with lows
in the single digits to teens, and a little more wind to have
wind chills drop below zero in the mountains.
Forecast confidence is high on temperatures/sky cover and
winds, but average on snow amounts/timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EST Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Very cold temperatures for most of the week
Leaning toward colder side of guidance as airmass with be very
cold midweek, then slight moderating but still below normal to
end the week. Models this far out are in various camps on the
potential for another winter system Friday time frame. Will keep
it chance snow for now until a consensus starts to show up, but
in this pattern, not out of the question to get a system every
2-3 days.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Saturday...
A cold front and associated showers will cross the mountains
through 09Z Saturday. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible at KBLF/KLWB, possibly KBCB/KROA. Behind the front,
westerly winds will increase through the day today. Wind gusts
will be exceeding 35kts at times.
Across the foothills and piedmont, early morning fog and low
clouds will scour behind the front. VFR ceilings and
visibilities likely with breezy conditions into the afternoon.
Strong low level jet to keep some wind shear issues across the
piedmont through 10Z Sat.
VFR and light winds return to all tonight.
OUTLOOK...
The next chance of snow will be in the mountains on Monday with
the leading edge of the Arctic air. Flight conditions may
deteriorate on Tuesday and Tuesday night due to snow as a
potential storm system develops in the southeast United States.
VFR expected to return Wednesday but airmass will be Arctic-
like.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ001-018.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ002.
WV...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/RCSHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 404 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-141000- Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 404 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Some snow is possible by Tuesday. Very cold temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-018-141000- Ashe-Watauga- 404 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Accumulating snow is possible by late Monday into Tuesday. Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ002-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-141000- Alleghany NC-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 404 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Snow is possible by Tuesday. Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A personal weather station measured a wind gust of 63 MPH near Rugby.
High winds downed numerous trees and resulted in numerous power outages in Smyth County. The Red Stone area of Adwolfe and Thomas Bridge southwest of Marion suffered the most wind damage and power outages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154752, 1154755.