An upper-level trough moving across the central Great Plains with a progressive jet stream along its base produced westerly high winds across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An upper-level trough moving across the central Great Plains with a progressive jet stream along its base produced westerly high winds across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 10:46 PM CST, 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1044 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 8 PM
CST /7 PM MST/ Monday for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
- A High Wind Watch is in effect from 9 PM MST /10 PM CST/ this
evening through Monday evening.
- A cold front will intrude upon the region Monday night,
knocking temperatures back to below normal New Years Eve and New
Years Day for most locations. Precipitation chances remain nil.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
WV imagery this afternoon shows upper ridging off the coast of Baja,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest
flow aloft. At the surface, increasing southwesterly downslope
warming will combine with sunny skies/increasing thicknesses to add
7-9 F onto yesterday's highs.
Tonight, the first of a series of shortwaves will move through the
region, developing a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes and
increasing the 700mb height gradient to near 60m/200nm over the next
24 hours. This will result in increasing winds in the Guadalupes
overnight, and continuing off and on until about sundown Monday
night. This is a very marginal event at best, and 12Z model runs
have actually backed off winds some, so confidence is low in this
coming off the fence on the windier side. W/this in mind, we'll
leave the watch as is, and let the mid shift pull the trigger on a
warning if warranted. Regardless, increasing winds will maintain
mixing, keeping overnight minimums 3-4 F higher than last night's.
Monday looks to be unseasonably warm due to sunny skies, downslope
warming, and optimal thicknesses. This will easily be the warmest
day this forecast as highs plateau ~ 19-20 F above normal.
Unfortunately, this will combine with increased winds to result in
critical fire weather conditions, warranting a Red Flag Warning area-
wide. See fire wx discussion below for more details.
Monday night, a cold front will intrude upon the region, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF as early as 03Z. This will bring an abrupt
end to fire wx concerns after the wind shift, and usher in cooler
weather into the extended. Overnight lows should cool to withing 7-
9 F above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
Tuesday, a cold front will be working its way southwest through the
area, and looks to bank up against the higher terrain by sundown.
The front should take highs on the lower terrain down to around
normal, leaving the higher terrain above normal. CAA will continue
overnight and, although Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night
this forecast, lows should still come in ~ 2-4 F above climatology.
Likewise, Wednesday will be the coldest day this forecast, with
highs most locations 2-3 F below normal.
Fortunately, temperatures begin to recover into the weekend, but not
by much under bland, zonal flow aloft. By Saturday afternoon, highs
will be back to ~ 7-9 F above normal. Unfortunately, another cold
front arrives Sunday, shaving 203 F off highs for Sunday.
Unfortunately, chances of precipitation in this pattern remain slim-
to-none, so grids remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
VFR continues with gusty northwest winds developing after sunrise.
These stronger winds will diminish late in the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
A warming trend is in store for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
through Monday. This will increase ERCs area-wide, approaching the
90th percentile Stockton Plateau/lower Trans Pecos by Monday
afternoon. Relative humidity of around 10% or less will combine
with increased westerlies west of the Pecos, as well as some areas
up north, to yield RFTIs of concern starting at 3, and topping out
up to 7, with even a couple of isolated areas of 8. This looks to
be our most hazardous fire wx day in some time, w/CIPs analogs
comparing it to the 02/25/2008 Glass Fire. For these reasons, we'll
upgrade to watch to a red flag warning. Also, new PPF guidance
suggests adding the upper Colorado River Valley to the warning as
well. 20-ft winds won't be quite as strong as areas farther west,
but fuels are much more plentiful there. A cold front Monday night
will bring an end to fire wx concerns the rest of the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 47 77 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 51 77 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 51 86 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 54 82 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 46 66 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 45 73 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 41 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 49 76 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 50 76 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 45 79 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Monday for Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
Monday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower
Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County.
Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...29The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1222564, 1222563.