High Wind in Texas, April 1, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

An upper-level trough continues to spin in the Southwestern US with
moderately strong upper-level flow. A surface low has developed in
southeastern Colorado in response to this favorable pattern for
cyclogenesis, and the low will continue to strengthen through the
day. There was weak relative humidity recovery overnight and warm
temperatures persisting throughout due to breezy conditions, and
this resulted in a quick warmup across the area this morning,
especially given that most of the CWA was sunny. High clouds are now
streaming across the Panhandles this afternoon. Surface winds
will continue to strengthen through the next few hours as the
surface low continues to strengthen and the pressure gradient
steepens. The main uncertainty today will be the presence of high
clouds and how much the filtered sunshine will affect mixing some
stronger gusts to the surface. Expecting sustained winds between
25 to 35 mph across the CWA, and the areas that see the least
persistent cloud cover, which is still expected to be the
northwestern combined Panhandles, is favored to be in the 30 to 35
mph range. Wind gusts will follow the same idea; 40 to 55 mph
wind gusts are possible across the area, with 45 to 55 mph wind
gusts favoring the areas with the least persistent cloud cover.
Additionally, dry air has overachieved so far today with relative
humidity values already between 10 to 15%. Have lowered dew points
to be more in line with observations, and now have widespread 10
to 13% across much of the western/central TX Panhandle and the OK
Panhandle. Some values around 9% are possible. As such, critical
fire weather conditions are still expected across much of the
western and northern combined Panhandles.

Southwesterly winds will persist through the night but generally
weaken to 5 to 15 mph. As the aforementioned upper-level trough
moves eastward toward the Panhandles, it will drag in some low-level
moisture from the Pacific tonight and through Monday morning. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist for the southeastern
half of the CWA with less cloud coverage in the northwestern half. A
surface low moves into the CWA and deepens in response to the left
exit region of an incoming jet streak. Not far to the north of the
surface low is a cold front surging south toward the Panhandles late
Monday morning/early Monday afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds
are favored ahead of the front, and breezy northerly winds are
favored behind it. Models are in generally good agreement that a
Pacific front will move in from the west, and accompanied by strong
upper-level divergence from the favorable jet streak position, a
band of showers are favored to develop in the vicinity of the
Pacific front. This activity should move from west-southwest to east-
northeast through the Texas Panhandle, ahead of the cold front,
Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively robust mid-
level moisture atop an inverted-V signature. Most guidance also
favors around 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE which supports the potential
for a few embedded thunderstorms. All considered, wind gusts up to
60 mph are possible with these showers/embedded thunderstorms across
the Texas Panhandle.

The cold front clears the Panhandles Monday evening and some
lingering precipitation is favored in the northern combined
Panhandles as the system potentially closes off while it departs.
Guidance has been back-and-forth regarding the potential for snow
somewhere in the northern combined Panhandles, and the latest
suggests up to around an inch of snow is possible primarily in the
western Oklahoma Panhandle. Winds behind the front Monday night look
breezy to potentially windy due to a steep pressure gradient and
height rises, which suggests that if there is snow, blowing snow is
possible and may reduce visibility. For now, there is a 40-70%
probability for an inch of snow for the northwestern half of the
Oklahoma Panhandle and a 10-40% probability extending into much of
the rest of the Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwestern Texas
Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

20 to 30 mph northerly winds are favored during the day Tuesday
behind the cold front. Tuesday's highs may need to be decreased some
due to the fresh cool air being brought in, but the degree to which
it may be decreased will depend upon how quick the morning stratus
deck clears out in the afternoon. Will leave NBM's highs in for now
given it's still 3 days out and there is still some uncertainty.

Otherwise, northerly winds will persist through Wednesday but
temperatures warm back into the 70s. A ridge builds over the region
as an upper-level trough moves into the Western US. Surface winds
gradually strengthen from Thursday through Saturday, and Saturday
looks to be the windiest day of the weekend. Therefore, fire
weather concerns return for Saturday as the winds turn
southwesterly once again. At least elevated fire weather
conditions are possible, and the potential for critical fire
weather conditions depends upon how much dry air is brought in.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

A weather system will bring a slew of impacts across the
panhandles today through tomorrow. This will start with higher
based showers and isolated thunderstorms across the panhandles
during the late morning and afternoon hours. These showers and
thunderstorms look to be capable of producing gusty winds through
dry downbursts. The activity then looks to increase with the
passage of a cold front during the afternoon and evening hours.
This will see the rain showers and thunderstorms produce heavier
rain and have lower cloud bases both of which can produce MVFR and
IFR conditions. Any of the thunderstorms today will have a chance
to produce hail as the air aloft is fairly cold which is
conducive for hail formation. During the overnight hours the rain
may transition over to snow which could bring even lower
visibility conditions. The precipitation will dwindle and begin
to end during the morning hours of Tuesday. This system will also
bring gusty winds to all terminals starting with a SW direction
this morning. As the cold front approaches these winds will shift
to the W and then once the cold front passes winds will shift to
the N.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  35  57  32 /  50  60  20   0
Beaver OK                  73  33  60  31 /  70  80  20   0
Boise City OK              65  30  57  31 /  80  70  10   0
Borger TX                  78  36  61  35 /  60  70  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              74  35  61  30 /  50  70  10   0
Canyon TX                  73  35  58  29 /  40  50  10   0
Clarendon TX               77  38  58  37 /  50  50  10   0
Dalhart TX                 68  31  57  29 /  70  80  10   0
Guymon OK                  70  32  59  32 /  70  80  10   0
Hereford TX                72  35  59  30 /  40  40  10   0
Lipscomb TX                77  35  59  34 /  70  80  20   0
Pampa TX                   76  35  58  35 /  60  70  20   0
Shamrock TX                78  37  59  36 /  50  50  20   0
Wellington TX              79  39  58  37 /  40  40  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
911 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
911 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon
across the Texas Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts are possible with
this activity.

Snow may mix in with rain showers later Monday night in the
northwestern combined Panhandles. There is a medium chance, around
40 to 70 percent, for an inch of snow, or slightly more, in the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may return Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions on Saturday.