Drought in New Mexico, April 1 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1147 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024

A strong Pacific storm system will arrive tonight with scattered
rain and snow showers following a powerful cold front pushed
east, across the Borderland, by continued strong winds. Lowland
rain and mountain snow will start this evening over the Gila and
far western New Mexico and march east toward the Rio Grande
overnight towards Monday morning. We will see more strong winds,
along with lingering showers, and much cooler weather to start the
work week. Tuesday will remain cool and unsettled as the storm
system slowly exits. The rest of the week will be warmer and dry,
with increasing breezy late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Our next weather maker is a sharp Pacific trough just about to
pass over San Diego. Ahead of this, we are in the deep SW flow in
the main trough, with thick upper level, and some mid level cloud
over the region. To our west the bulk of leading precipitation is
now in progress over central AZ. That shield of showers is
tracking from SW to NE, but slowly propagating east toward the
Gila. We expect precipitation to arrive across the AZ/NM state
line early this evening. Snow levels start high, near 8kft, and
then drop overnight to 6500 ft, behind an early am cold frontal
passage after midnight. The front should be near DMN around 5am,
and to ELP around 10am. Models show the bulk of the pcpn/qpf will
be in close proximity to the advancing front, meaning most of the
rain/snow will be after midnight, through the morning hours. The
SACs could see some of their better rain/snow amounts late am into
the early afternoon hours.

The high-res models are indicating a fair amount of moisture
(>0.60" PWAT) and instability (300+ CAPE and -2 LI). This suggest
moderate precip amounts, similar to what radar is showing over AZ
this afternoon. Thus our QPF for liquid precip is a bit higher, as
is our snow amounts for above 7500 ft over the Gila/Blacks and
Sacs for tonight and Monday. We currently have our higher
elevation snow totals at 2-5 in the west and 3-7 in the Sacs. Thus
we have a 2-stage winter weather advisory for those areas with an
earlier start and end for the Gila vs the Sacs.

In addition, the winds look to continue strong for Monday. Not
necessarily a mix-down scenario, given the cooler surface
conditions, but a low-level gradient scenario due to the fropa and
associated pressure gradient. It does look like we will see
westerly winds in the range of a wind advisory for central and
eastern zones...thus we have issued one for most of Dona Ana,
Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth counties for the late morning through
early evening. Likely no dust issues with the colder surface
temps curtailing dust loft.

More energy drops down the backside of the main storm system and
keeps the trough over the region well into Tuesday. Thus we remain
cool with unsettled weather, keeping chances for isolated to
scattered showers over the region.

By Wednesday that storm will have exited to our east, with high
pressure building in from the west. This will start a period of
fair weather, with more sun, less wind, and warming temperatures.
By next Friday we could begin to see the next increases in winds,
likely breezy, as the next Pacific storm takes form and eases our
way from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Some gustiness continues for most TAF sites to begin the forecast
period. Occasional gusts last through the AM, increasing further
during the day as a cold front pushes from west to east. The front
will also bring scattered rain showers for the AM hours, earlier
for KDMN and later for KLRU and KELP. Confidence in precip is
lower for KELP as the front loses some moisture while it
progresses to the east. Threat of showers largely ends behind the
front, although KDMN has a 40 percent chance of rain during the
afternoon associated with the upper low. There's a low chance (20
percent) that CIGs drop to MVFR levels with the front's shower
activity. AWW has been issued for KELP beginning with the frontal
passage and lasting into the evening. Gusts near 30kts expected
for all TAF sites during the afternoon. Winds will decrease at
least somewhat after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Our next storm system arrives over the Gila/Blacks tonight, tracks
east across the SW NM lowlands overnight, and pushes east across
the Rio Grande Valley into the Sacs and Far West Texas Monday
morning. We have plenty of moisture streaming in on SW flow ahead
of the system, as can be seen by the thick mid and high-level
clouds. As the Pacific trough pushes in this evening we will see
scattered, and even areas of numerous, lowland rain and mountain
snow showers develop out west and shift east overnight. High
elevation snows of 2-7" are expected. RH will of course be
elevated, moderating the effects of strong SW and W winds. A cold
front will also push across the area overnight, and likely be the
focus for the best and most rain/snow areas. Winds will remain
strong on Monday with the early morning frontal passage,
especially from the Rio Grande valley and east. Temperatures will
be much cooler Monday and Tuesday behind the front.

We remain unsettled for Tuesday, with lesser winds, but still
some lingering precipitation. Wednesday that storm will be to our
east, with high pressure aloft building back in over the area.
That will mean fair weather, lighter winds, warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  51  65  45  64 /  10  60   0  20
Sierra Blanca            48  61  37  57 /  10  50   0  30
Las Cruces               46  63  39  65 /  10  70   0  20
Alamogordo               44  60  34  59 /  10  70   0  20
Cloudcroft               29  35  21  36 /  20  80  10  40
Truth or Consequences    43  60  37  60 /  20  70   0  10
Silver City              35  47  31  54 /  80  70  10  30
Deming                   40  59  36  63 /  40  80  10  20
Lordsburg                37  56  36  60 /  90  80  30  30
West El Paso Metro       48  62  41  63 /  10  60   0  20
Dell City                48  65  36  63 /   0  40   0  10
Fort Hancock             50  66  39  64 /  10  60   0  20
Loma Linda               44  56  36  56 /  10  60   0  20
Fabens                   49  65  41  64 /  10  70   0  20
Santa Teresa             45  60  38  62 /  10  70   0  20
White Sands HQ           49  60  41  62 /  10  70   0  30
Jornada Range            43  60  34  61 /  10  70   0  20
Hatch                    45  62  35  64 /  20  70   0  20
Columbus                 42  60  40  62 /  40  80  10  20
Orogrande                45  60  36  59 /  10  60   0  30
Mayhill                  38  50  29  49 /  10  60   0  30
Mescalero                35  46  26  47 /  10  80  10  40
Timberon                 32  46  25  46 /  10  70   0  30
Winston                  35  50  30  53 /  40  70   0  20
Hillsboro                39  56  33  59 /  40  70   0  20
Spaceport                42  60  33  60 /  10  70   0  20
Lake Roberts             32  47  26  54 /  80  80  10  50
Hurley                   34  52  30  56 /  70  60  10  20
Cliff                    37  55  33  61 /  90  70  10  30
Mule Creek               35  49  31  57 / 100  60  10  30
Faywood                  37  52  32  56 /  60  70  10  30
Animas                   37  56  37  60 /  90  80  30  20
Hachita                  38  57  37  61 /  80  80  20  30
Antelope Wells           39  56  36  60 /  80  80  30  30
Cloverdale               35  49  35  54 / 100  80  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>424.

NM...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for NMZ406-426.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ416-417-427.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM MDT Monday for NMZ415.

&&

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt