No change was noted in drought conditions once again for far west Texas as another dry month was recorded.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
No change was noted in drought conditions once again for far west Texas as another dry month was recorded.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 10:47 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1147 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024
A strong Pacific storm system will arrive tonight with scattered
rain and snow showers following a powerful cold front pushed
east, across the Borderland, by continued strong winds. Lowland
rain and mountain snow will start this evening over the Gila and
far western New Mexico and march east toward the Rio Grande
overnight towards Monday morning. We will see more strong winds,
along with lingering showers, and much cooler weather to start the
work week. Tuesday will remain cool and unsettled as the storm
system slowly exits. The rest of the week will be warmer and dry,
with increasing breezy late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024
Our next weather maker is a sharp Pacific trough just about to
pass over San Diego. Ahead of this, we are in the deep SW flow in
the main trough, with thick upper level, and some mid level cloud
over the region. To our west the bulk of leading precipitation is
now in progress over central AZ. That shield of showers is
tracking from SW to NE, but slowly propagating east toward the
Gila. We expect precipitation to arrive across the AZ/NM state
line early this evening. Snow levels start high, near 8kft, and
then drop overnight to 6500 ft, behind an early am cold frontal
passage after midnight. The front should be near DMN around 5am,
and to ELP around 10am. Models show the bulk of the pcpn/qpf will
be in close proximity to the advancing front, meaning most of the
rain/snow will be after midnight, through the morning hours. The
SACs could see some of their better rain/snow amounts late am into
the early afternoon hours.
The high-res models are indicating a fair amount of moisture
(>0.60" PWAT) and instability (300+ CAPE and -2 LI). This suggest
moderate precip amounts, similar to what radar is showing over AZ
this afternoon. Thus our QPF for liquid precip is a bit higher, as
is our snow amounts for above 7500 ft over the Gila/Blacks and
Sacs for tonight and Monday. We currently have our higher
elevation snow totals at 2-5 in the west and 3-7 in the Sacs. Thus
we have a 2-stage winter weather advisory for those areas with an
earlier start and end for the Gila vs the Sacs.
In addition, the winds look to continue strong for Monday. Not
necessarily a mix-down scenario, given the cooler surface
conditions, but a low-level gradient scenario due to the fropa and
associated pressure gradient. It does look like we will see
westerly winds in the range of a wind advisory for central and
eastern zones...thus we have issued one for most of Dona Ana,
Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth counties for the late morning through
early evening. Likely no dust issues with the colder surface
temps curtailing dust loft.
More energy drops down the backside of the main storm system and
keeps the trough over the region well into Tuesday. Thus we remain
cool with unsettled weather, keeping chances for isolated to
scattered showers over the region.
By Wednesday that storm will have exited to our east, with high
pressure building in from the west. This will start a period of
fair weather, with more sun, less wind, and warming temperatures.
By next Friday we could begin to see the next increases in winds,
likely breezy, as the next Pacific storm takes form and eases our
way from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024
Some gustiness continues for most TAF sites to begin the forecast
period. Occasional gusts last through the AM, increasing further
during the day as a cold front pushes from west to east. The front
will also bring scattered rain showers for the AM hours, earlier
for KDMN and later for KLRU and KELP. Confidence in precip is
lower for KELP as the front loses some moisture while it
progresses to the east. Threat of showers largely ends behind the
front, although KDMN has a 40 percent chance of rain during the
afternoon associated with the upper low. There's a low chance (20
percent) that CIGs drop to MVFR levels with the front's shower
activity. AWW has been issued for KELP beginning with the frontal
passage and lasting into the evening. Gusts near 30kts expected
for all TAF sites during the afternoon. Winds will decrease at
least somewhat after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024
Our next storm system arrives over the Gila/Blacks tonight, tracks
east across the SW NM lowlands overnight, and pushes east across
the Rio Grande Valley into the Sacs and Far West Texas Monday
morning. We have plenty of moisture streaming in on SW flow ahead
of the system, as can be seen by the thick mid and high-level
clouds. As the Pacific trough pushes in this evening we will see
scattered, and even areas of numerous, lowland rain and mountain
snow showers develop out west and shift east overnight. High
elevation snows of 2-7" are expected. RH will of course be
elevated, moderating the effects of strong SW and W winds. A cold
front will also push across the area overnight, and likely be the
focus for the best and most rain/snow areas. Winds will remain
strong on Monday with the early morning frontal passage,
especially from the Rio Grande valley and east. Temperatures will
be much cooler Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
We remain unsettled for Tuesday, with lesser winds, but still
some lingering precipitation. Wednesday that storm will be to our
east, with high pressure aloft building back in over the area.
That will mean fair weather, lighter winds, warming temperatures.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 51 65 45 64 / 10 60 0 20
Sierra Blanca 48 61 37 57 / 10 50 0 30
Las Cruces 46 63 39 65 / 10 70 0 20
Alamogordo 44 60 34 59 / 10 70 0 20
Cloudcroft 29 35 21 36 / 20 80 10 40
Truth or Consequences 43 60 37 60 / 20 70 0 10
Silver City 35 47 31 54 / 80 70 10 30
Deming 40 59 36 63 / 40 80 10 20
Lordsburg 37 56 36 60 / 90 80 30 30
West El Paso Metro 48 62 41 63 / 10 60 0 20
Dell City 48 65 36 63 / 0 40 0 10
Fort Hancock 50 66 39 64 / 10 60 0 20
Loma Linda 44 56 36 56 / 10 60 0 20
Fabens 49 65 41 64 / 10 70 0 20
Santa Teresa 45 60 38 62 / 10 70 0 20
White Sands HQ 49 60 41 62 / 10 70 0 30
Jornada Range 43 60 34 61 / 10 70 0 20
Hatch 45 62 35 64 / 20 70 0 20
Columbus 42 60 40 62 / 40 80 10 20
Orogrande 45 60 36 59 / 10 60 0 30
Mayhill 38 50 29 49 / 10 60 0 30
Mescalero 35 46 26 47 / 10 80 10 40
Timberon 32 46 25 46 / 10 70 0 30
Winston 35 50 30 53 / 40 70 0 20
Hillsboro 39 56 33 59 / 40 70 0 20
Spaceport 42 60 33 60 / 10 70 0 20
Lake Roberts 32 47 26 54 / 80 80 10 50
Hurley 34 52 30 56 / 70 60 10 20
Cliff 37 55 33 61 / 90 70 10 30
Mule Creek 35 49 31 57 / 100 60 10 30
Faywood 37 52 32 56 / 60 70 10 30
Animas 37 56 37 60 / 90 80 30 20
Hachita 38 57 37 61 / 80 80 20 30
Antelope Wells 39 56 36 60 / 80 80 30 30
Cloverdale 35 49 35 54 / 100 80 50 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>424.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for NMZ406-426.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ416-417-427.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM MDT Monday for NMZ415.
&&
FORECASTER...30-DennhardtThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The entire zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought throughout the month of April.
Extreme(D3) drought conditions remained in place through the month of April. The El Paso Airport reported 0.02 inches of precipitation which was 0.15 inches below normal.
The northern half of the zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought while the south remained in Severe(D2) drought.
The northern half of the zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought while the south remained in Severe(D2) drought.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought throughout the entire month of April.
Severe(D2) drought continued for the entire month of April. The Tornillo Cooperative Observer reported 0.04 inches of precipitation which was 0.19 inches below normal.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought during the month of April.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1169925, 1169926, 1169929, 1169930, 1169931, 1169932, 1169933.