Strong Wind in Tennessee, January 8 to 9, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
914 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The rain we've been talking about is well underway this evening
and has spread across the entire area at this time. The highest
gusts reported so far are out of the Crossville airport and at
Tullahoma where they've reached 40 mph. These gusts seem most
likely to continue to occur in our highest elevations across our
eastern counties. Elsewhere gusts have been between 20 and 30 mph.
The peak time for winds is still a few hours away, so look for
these gusts to bump up slightly. As far as rainfall amounts are
concerned, radar estimates that places over western Middle TN have
seen around 0.25 to 0.5 inches, so we're still on track to see
between 0.5 to 1.25 inches total through tomorrow. Only changes
needed to the forecast were updates to the near term hourly
temperatures and winds to match up with observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

A powerful and dynamic system is enroute to the SE this afternoon.
The 993mb surface low is currently parked over extreme north Texas
with a tight gradient wrapped around it. Models continue to show
this surface low deepening, thus increasing the pressure gradient
surrounding it as the system moves NE this evening. That gradient
coupled with an impressive 70 knot low-level jet are what will be
responsible for the gusty winds tonight. Speaking of, let's hit
the high notes of this system:

Key point #1: **WIND** Starting tonight, sustained winds will be
anywhere from 20-30 mph with gusts between 35-45 mph. NOTE: In
areas of higher elevation, gusts between 50 to possibly 60 mph
will be possible. The timeframe for the highest winds will be
overnight tonight. Winds will die down a touch Tuesday morning,
but will still be breezy enough to keep the wind advisory going up
until midnight Tuesday night. Key point #2: **RAIN** Plentiful
rain is expected to move in with this system with current forecast
rainfall totals anywhere from 1 to 2 inches. With as dry as it
has been with the ongoing drought, wouldn't be surprised to see
some ponding action going on in low-lying areas. Timeframe for
the heaviest rain is also going to be overnight tonight. Key point
#3: **SNOW** As the low spins out of our area off to the NE
Tuesday afternoon, cooler air will filter in and moisture will
wrap around the low, helping to pump out some snowflakes. Looking
at the latest probabilities, the NBM gives a 40-50% chance of 0.5"
or greater of snow along the Cumberland Plateau late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The probability of 1" is 0-5%. So
any major accumulations from this system are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

We'll get a break in-between systems on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, temperatures will feel quite different on the two days
with highs Wednesday struggling to get out of the 40s and highs on
Thursday in the upper 50s. The warmer temps on Thursday are in
response to an approaching trough as we get return flow back into
the area ahead of the next system which moves in Friday. Models
have stayed fairly consistent with the placement of the upper-
level trough associated with Friday's system as the Euro,
Canadian, and GFS all have it swinging out the Plains and
negatively tilting over the SE Friday. Looking at thunderstorm
chances, there is very little instability, but enough to mention a
few rumbles of thunder for now. It's looking like this system
will also be bringing gusty winds to the area yet again if the
forecast track of the surface low stays the same. Rainfall totals
with this system are currently around 1". A very similar setup
late Friday as the system exits and cooler air moves in, wrap
around moisture could encourage some snow flurries, but nothing
currently of major consequence. Much cooler temperatures will come
in behind this system just in time for the weekend with overnight
lows this weekend in the teens. Looking at the upper-air pattern,
models are signaling at yet another trough swinging through the
area late Monday that will bring yet another chance for rain to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
We are going to see active weather the next 12-18 hours across
Middle TN as a low pressure system passes to our northwest.
Clouds will lower this evening and we will see MVFR cigs by 05z
015-025 feet. Rain will also spread in from west to east this
evening and will continue into tomorrow morning. Winds will be a
big concern and we will see them become gusty 30-45 knots,
strongest between 05 and 15z. We will also see LLWS during that
time. The cold front will push through tomorrow morning with
lingering showers throughout the day and breezy winds gusting up
to 30 knots. We will also continue to see MVFR cigs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  55  32  47 / 100  90  30   0
Clarksville    43  52  30  45 / 100  90  30   0
Crossville     39  52  27  40 / 100 100  40   0
Columbia       43  54  30  47 / 100  90  30   0
Cookeville     42  54  30  41 / 100 100  50   0
Jamestown      40  53  28  40 / 100 100  50   0
Lawrenceburg   43  54  31  46 / 100  90  30   0
Murfreesboro   42  56  30  47 / 100  90  30   0
Waverly        42  51  29  45 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for Bedford-
Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

UPDATE.......Whitehead
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller