What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 8, 11:52 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 8, 11:52 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1152 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
Sending out forecast with updated POPs to better reflect current
radar trends. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
moving SW to NE across the western half of the CWA. 12Z LIX
sounding as well as model soundings indicate strong low level
inversion is still in place across LA and MS. Looking at soundings
further west, there's a bit more instability aloft. So makes sense
to be seeing stronger cells with deeper cores west of the MS
River. Overall forecast remains the same with coverage and storm
intensity of activity increasing, especially this afternoon and
evening.
Winds are ramping up in marine zones and should spread inland as
the inversion weakens with surface warming. Forecast is still a
little too quick with inland winds increasing but will hold off on
making changes to that portion of the forecast with nearshore wind
obs currently increasing recently.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
We don't need to go through all the variables that make severe wx
possible with this scenario. At this point a severe storm may not
even be a probability but a certainty for some areas. There will be
a lot going on through the day with this system. The polar jet alone
would cause strong to severe storms with this but the coupling of
the subtrop jet with the polar jet will provide even stronger
conditions and perfect timing for a lot of interesting variables
found with this system. One of those is the depth and amount of
moisture as PW values will be running near record values for this
time of year. A deep warm rain process will begin as the warm front
begins to lift north causing storms and training ahead of the cold
front to become an issue. The cold front will move rapidly through
and training rain rates ahead of it may be in the 3 to 5 inch per
hour range making the flood watch an obvious call. A high wind
warning is in place, which means gradient winds will be an issue and
could cause power outages in some areas alone. The reason it is easy
to say that a severe storm may not be a probability but a certainty
is due to the coupling of gradient and storm winds, which could
easily cause winds to peak at 60+mph. Southerly winds will easily
push enough water to cause coastal flooding issues as well. Only
rainfall and mainly gradient winds to be concerned with until the
sfc warm front moves over the area. Then those areas go sfc based
and storm winds and tornado development can reach the sfc. This
looks to start at the SELA coast by noon today. By 3pm today, this
line(sfc warm front) should be found from Thibodaux to Port
Sulphur, which means all areas along and south of this line could
get some type of severe storm. This line will move farther inland
from there and should be well inland along a line from near
Liberty MS to near Slidell LA by 6pm. The entire area should be
sfc based by 9pm. The cold front will then begin to move through
the area around or just before midnight with its own storm mode
issues. Most of these could fall into the QLCS category but as
strong dry air forces its way into the back side of this line, a
squall line will form making for the possibility of severe storms
along the entire line as it moves through. The front should be
east of the area by 5am Tue. But strong gradient winds will also
be found behind the front area wide, just no storms. Since most of
this activity will be evening and overnight, it would be a great
idea to know how to get your weather warnings if/when they area
issued for your area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
Once the area is rid of this cold front, high pressure will settle
bringing things to a much more relaxed situation by mid week. But
the next cold front may also move quickly through and that may be by
the end of this week so the progressive pattern will continue for
now. We will take on one system at a time and we will take a
deeper look at the next system once the current one is by us.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
Forecast is a bit more challenging with 18Z TAF package due to
limited ASOS observations at the moment. Cigs have already fallen
well into MVFR range but and will continue to lower to IFR before
sunset today. Temporary drops in CIGs and VIS expected as
scattered showers and storms pass across terminals over the next
few hours. Lightning is still more isolated at this hour but
enough so across the area to justify adding VCTS to some
locations. Expecting convective coverage and intensity to increase
as the afternoon progresses. At the same time, winds will be an
issue at all terminals today/tonight. Wind shear impacts are
expected as well. Southerly winds are currently rising in coastal
waters and will follow suit inland as time progresses. Sustained
20-25kt with gusts up to 40kt or higher especially for those along
the coast. Winds will abruptly shift with FROPA from almost due
south to WNW with close to the same speeds which occurs roughly
around midnight tonight at BTR and end for GPT around 3am Tue
morning. Strong to severe +TSRA will also be likely at one or two
sites during this event and all sites will have equal opportunity
at severe storms mainly between 3pm and FROPA. CIGs should jump up
tomorrow morning as the front races eastward. Not expecting winds
to decrease by an appreciable amount until Tuesday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
Very volatile conditions will plague the coastal waters today and
tonight. Flags for storm warning and gale warnings will remain and
storm warnings will be extended in areal extent to include all but
the tidal lakes. Once we are in the highest flagged conditions, we
will begin to time the lowering of these flags. Strong to severe
storms will also accompany this cold front while the front races
east tonight. Winds will abruptly shift from southerly to west as
the cold front passes. This will cause a very peaked confused sea
condition as this occurs. Wind speeds will gradually fall from gales
to around 25kt by Tuesday night and all marine headlines may be
lowered by mid week before the next front impacts the area starting
the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 43 52 29 / 100 100 10 0
BTR 70 46 55 33 / 100 100 0 0
ASD 70 48 57 33 / 100 100 10 0
MSY 70 50 57 37 / 100 100 10 0
GPT 67 48 58 33 / 100 100 30 0
PQL 69 49 62 33 / 100 100 40 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>060-064>071-076>090.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056-057-059-064-065-071-079-081-083-085-086-088>090.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for LAZ058-066>070-
076-078-080-082-084.
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ058-060-066>070-
076>078-080-082-084-087.
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ058-060-
066>070-076>078-080-082-084-087.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-534.
Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>085.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ087-088.
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ086>088.
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MSZ086>088.
Coastal Flood Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ534.
Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.
Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
&&
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TEIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Jan 8, 11:16 AM CST, 4 hours 26 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jan 8, 2:04 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
204 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
LAZ057>060-065-082045-
St. Charles LA-Upper Terrebonne LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
St. James LA-Upper Lafourche LA-
204 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST, SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES, WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES
AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES THROUGH 245 PM CST...
At 203 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Raceland, or 7 miles north of
Houma, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hahnville, Paradis, Des Allemands, Raceland, Boutte, Luling, South
Vacherie, Bayou Gauche, Bayou Cane, Gray, and Chackbay.
This includes Interstate 310 between mile markers 8 and 11.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 2963 9069 2965 9075 3000 9067 2992 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 203DEG 35KT 2969 9070
FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CABSpecial weather statement, Jan 8, 2:29 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
229 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
LAZ058-060-082100-
St. Charles LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
229 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST AND NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISHES THROUGH 300 PM CST...
At 229 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Paradis, or near Hahnville,
moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hahnville, Laplace, Killona, Norco, Paradis, Montz, Boutte,
Destrehan, Taft, New Sarpy, Bayou Gauche, Luling, Des Allemands, and
Edgard.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 208 and 219.
Interstate 310 between mile markers 5 and 11.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 2984 9048 2987 9050 2986 9051 2988 9053
3010 9050 3009 9033 3007 9028 2983 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 204DEG 42KT 2989 9045
FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CABSpecial weather statement, Jan 8, 2:41 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
241 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
LAZ057-058-084>086-082115-
Southern Livingston LA-Western Ascension LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
St. James LA-Eastern Ascension LA-
241 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST, SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION AND ST. JAMES PARISHES
THROUGH 315 PM CST...
At 241 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Convent, or 12 miles east of Napoleonville, moving north at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gramercy, Lutcher, Sorrento, Convent, Garyville, North Vacherie, and
Wallace.
This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 182 and
200.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3023 9089 3020 9050 2992 9079 2992 9089
2993 9089 2994 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 196DEG 42KT 2998 9083
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CABSpecial weather statement, Jan 8, 3:01 PM CST, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
301 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
MSZ077-083-084-082145-
Northern Hancock MS-Pearl River MS-Northern Harrison MS-
301 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
HARRISON, NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND EASTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM CST...
At 300 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Kiln, or 16 miles north of Diamondhead, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Harrison, northeastern Hancock and eastern Pearl River Counties.
This includes Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 22
and 42.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3100 8934 3065 8934 3065 8925 3068 8924
3068 8916 3047 8936 3055 8959 3098 8947
3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 205DEG 49KT 3062 8939
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CABSpecial weather statement, Jan 8, 3:11 PM CST, 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
311 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
LAZ046-056-057-059-065-085-082145-
Iberville LA-Upper Terrebonne LA-Western Ascension LA-Assumption LA-
St. James LA-Upper Lafourche LA-
311 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ASCENSION,
NORTHWESTERN ST. JAMES, NORTH CENTRAL TERREBONNE, SOUTHEASTERN
IBERVILLE, WESTERN LAFOURCHE AND ASSUMPTION PARISHES THROUGH 345 PM
CST...
At 311 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Belle River, moving northeast
at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Napoleonville, Supreme, Paincourtville,
Geismar, Labadieville, and Belle Rose.
This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 176 and
182.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3029 9088 2962 9094 2962 9103 2964 9106
2963 9108 2965 9111 2981 9110 2984 9113
2986 9120 2990 9121 2997 9126 3000 9126
3000 9123 3004 9122 3003 9124 3006 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 227DEG 38KT 2984 9122
FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAB