High Wind and Strong Wind in Tennessee, January 12, 2024

Name: High Wind and Strong Wind in Tennessee, January 12, 2024
Start: 2024-01-12T10:00
End: 2024-01-12T15:00
Location: Tennessee

January 12, 2024 · NWS OHX · 6 events in 5 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $180,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.

As a strong low pressure system tracked through the Great Lakes region of the country, a very strong pressure gradient and a potent low-level jet resulted in strong winds across Middle Tennessee on January 12, 2024. These winds generally ranged from 40 to 55 mph with isolated gusts over 60 mph mainly in Putnam County on the Cumberland Plateau. Numerous reports of downed trees and minor structural damage were received, particularly across counties along the Cumberland Plateau where winds were strongest.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 9:16 AM CST, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 12, 9:16 AM CST, 44 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
916 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Non-thunderstorm winds continue to be the main story today. We've
already had several wind gusts above 50 mph this morning and these
should become more widespread throughout the morning hours. The
Wind Advisory continues through midnight.

The severe potential is still looking pretty low. Does that mean
we won't get a watch at some point, maybe in our southwest? No.
However, with surface CAPE non-existent, we're really only
working off of about 200 J/Kg of elevated CAPE and about 6.5 to
7.0 deg mid-level lapse rates across the mid-state (both of which
have lead to the scattered thunder this morning). The warm sector
just doesn't look like it's going to become an issue for us. Dew
points in the upper 40s have been pretty steady and should remain
that way.

For now, the convective line that cross the Mississippi River
about an hour ago and fell apart has turned everything into just
scattered batches of thunder across the region. This trend should
continue with rains coming to an end on the Plateau before sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

The main concern in the short term forecast continues to be the
strong winds today. Gusts up to 55 mph still looks realistic with
the strongest gusts occurring from mid morning through mid
afternoon. Models have been showing the highest gusts occurring
along the plateau and that has not changed. There has been some
model guidance showing gusts in excess of 60 mph along the plateau
but with the shower coverage ahead of the surface trough when the
low level winds will be strongest, confidence in this occuring is
low. Once the surface trough moves through, there will be some
clearing to help mix down some gusts, but the low level winds
actually decrease a little bit behind the trough. In regards to
impacts from these gradient winds, scattered power outages and
downed trees will be likely. In addition, east-west driving such
as I-40 will be challenging.

A couple embedded storms just along the surface trough will be
possible, but my concern for severe storms with these still
remains low. Yes, some stronger gusts could be mixed down with
these storms but the impacts from the gradient winds will be more
widespread. Models continue to show an inversion around 850 mb
ahead of the surface trough with no more than 100 J/kg of CAPE
above that inversion. Shear values will be off the chart. In my
opinion, too far off the chart to sustain the weak updrafts thanks
to the weak CAPE values.

The moisture will pull east pretty quickly this evening with the
cold air chasing it. A few snowflakes may be seen mainly along the
plateau, but expect no accumulations. Saturday will be much colder
than today with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s along with west
winds at 10-15 mph and gusts around 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

The concerns in the long term forecast continue to be the frigid
temperatures and the potential for an accumulating snow early in
the work week. The cold cP airmass will ooze into the area on
Sunday. NBM has now picked up on the colder air moving into our
area sooner than it was yesterday. Highs pretty much across the
area are now expected to remain below freezing on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain below freezing until Thursday afternoon.
The coldest air will arrive on Monday and stick around through
Tuesday night. Tuesday night looks like the coldest night in the
forecast with lows in the single digits across the area.

As far as the accumulating snow, models continue to show QPF over
the area associated with a couple waves of upper level energy.
Unfortunately, the models also continue to be consistently
inconsistent with the timing and placement of the QPF with the
waves. Snow showers could start as early as Sunday night and
continue until as late as Tuesday. The operational models have
actually shifted the heavier QPF south of I-40 instead of over the
northwest portion of the CWA. The long range ensembles show a
decent chance (50-60%) of seeing at least an inch across the area.
It has the highest probabilities (30-40%) of seeing 2" or more
along I-40 but that same area has the highest spread among the
members. Hopefully, the models will start to come into better
agreement as we move into the weekend. Until then, we will
continue to message that there is a good chance of seeing some
accumulations across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

An active TAF period is ahead with very strong winds, widespread
rain, and MVFR ceilings. Southerly winds are already becoming
gusty at 25 to 35 knots, and those gusts will only trend up as the
day progresses. The strongest winds are most likely between 15Z
and 22Z with gusts of 35 to 45 knots. Winds will become westerly
this afternoon and remain strong through the TAF period.
Meanwhile, rain is moving into the area and will become widespread
this morning. Can't rule out a thunderstorm or two, but
confidence was not high enough in direct impacts to TAF sites at
this time. Therefore, amendments may be needed as the event
evolves. Rain will be heavy at time, producing reduced visibility
and MVFR ceilings. Rain should come to an end by 22Z, but MVFR
ceilings should persist until Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  27  43  19 / 100  10   0   0
Clarksville    56  25  40  15 / 100   0   0   0
Crossville     51  22  37  18 / 100  20   0   0
Columbia       59  26  44  18 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     53  24  39  19 / 100  20  10   0
Jamestown      52  22  37  17 / 100  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   59  26  44  20 / 100   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  24  44  18 / 100  10   0   0
Waverly        57  23  41  16 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 strong wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Strong Wind, Van Buren

When: January 12, 10:00 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Van Buren forecast zone
Measured: 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $25,000
Reported by: Social Media
Coordinates: 35.696, -85.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds with gusts up to 50 mph downed a few trees across Van Buren County, including on Captain Carter Road and Cane Creek Cumminsville Road in Spencer and Lakeside Drive near Fall Creek Falls. Power outages resulted from these downed trees. Damages are a rough estimate.

High Wind, Putnam

When: January 12, 10:14 AM CST to 12:00 PM CST
Where: Putnam forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 36.141, -85.495 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A peak wind gust of 66 mph was reported in Monterey.

Strong Wind, Putnam

When: January 12, 10:30 AM CST to 2:34 PM CST
Where: Putnam forecast zone
Measured: 48 kt (55 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 36.141, -85.495 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds across Putnam County resulted in numerous reports of downed trees. Near Cookeville, a tree fell on a house on Farmington Drive while another tree fell onto a home along Cumber Lane. A tree was also reported down on East 13th Street near the Tennessee Tech campus. Near Algood, a tree fell onto a car on Lane Avenue at Warren Avenue, and two trees fell onto a home and chicken coop in the Bangham community. Damages are a rough estimate.

Strong Wind, White

When: January 12, 11:10 AM CST to 3:00 PM CST
Where: White forecast zone
Measured: 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $75,000
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 35.926, -85.455 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds downed numerous trees across White County. In Sparta, a part of the roof of the Sparta Woodworks building was blown off. A mobile home along Swamp Road also had roof damage. Near the Upper Cumberland Regional Airport, several homes along Arlington Road and Salem Road sustained roof damage. Near Doyle, a wooden garage was blown down along Webbs Camp Road. Damages are a rough estimate.

Strong Wind, Warren

When: January 12, 12:30 PM CST
Where: Warren forecast zone
Measured: 48 kt (55 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $25,000
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 35.679, -85.778 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds in Warren County downed numerous trees with some blocking roadways. On East Main Street in McMinnville, windows were blown out of a business, and a traffic light was also blown down. Damages are a rough estimate.

Strong Wind, Rutherford

When: January 12, 12:52 PM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Rutherford forecast zone
Measured: 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 35.843, -86.417 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds in downtown Murfreesboro near the square downed a tree onto a garage. In north Murfreesboro, a 40 foot cypress tree was uprooted. Damages are a rough estimate.

What these are

Strong Wind: Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Tennessee in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Tennessee, January 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1147450, 1147451, 1147452, 1147453, 1147500, 1147454.