A strong pressure gradient developed across the region in the wake of a departing surface low. An 8-millibar gradient across the Mid-South resulted in northwest winds with gusts to 45 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A strong pressure gradient developed across the region in the wake of a departing surface low. An 8-millibar gradient across the Mid-South resulted in northwest winds with gusts to 45 mph. A few trees were knocked down.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 9:43 AM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1043 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Gusty conditions continue this morning as a fairly impressive
surface pressure gradient tracks through the area. Current
observations show the highest wind gusts near 35 mph are currently
over Shelby County with similar values to the north and south of
there. With that, the wind advisory remains in effect until 5 PM
this afternoon. Rain is starting to taper off from west to east
and a gradual clearing of clouds will ensue this afternoon as precip
moves out of the area. Clear night is in store for the mid-south
region with lows getting into the 40s overnight.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off throughout the day as a
cold front pulls away. A Wind Advisory is in effect areawide until
5PM today for gusty winds behind the front. Dry weather returns
tomorrow (Friday) with slightly above normal temperatures through
the weekend. Another cold front will move through on Tuesday,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty
winds ahead of and behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
An occluded surface low is currently centered over eastern Arkansas
with an associated front trailing down to the Gulf Coast. Current
radar trends depict a broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
rotating around its center point, bringing yet another round of
rain to north Mississippi. This should be the last of several
barrages of rain associated with this system; the Flood Watch
should be able to expire as originally planned at 7AM today. The
surface low will keep churning as it ejects toward the OH River
Valley throughout the day. This will keep PoPs in the 50-70% range
through late morning, quickly tapering off from west to east in
the afternoon.
On the back side of the system, an (approximate) 8 mb gradient
will materialize across the CWA today. This tight pressure
gradient will create 20-30 MPH sustained northwesterly surface
winds with gusts up to 45 MPH. As such, a Wind Advisory is in
effect areawide until 5PM today. After the front finally pulls
away late tonight, a welcomed period of dry and quiet weather is
expected for the next several days. Persistent upper level
ridging over the Gulf Coast will keep afternoon highs slightly
above normal in the upper 70s with little to no chance of rain. As
a surface high slides over the Carolinas by early next week,
southerly flow will further contribute to a warming trend as highs
creep into the low 80s during the work week.
Though uncertainty remains fairly high this far out, a potentially
significant severe weather event looks to unfold to our west on
Monday over the central and southern Plains. The same deep trough
and associated cold front from that event will continue trekking
across the central and southern CONUS early to midweek,
subsequently increasing our rain chances to 30-40% upon its
approach. In addition, the pressure gradient associated with
this cold front may increase surface winds to near Wind Advisory
criteria on Tuesday. Tuesday evening looks the most favorable for
showers and a few strong thunderstorms, though the joint
probability of supportive CAPE and bulk shear remains fairly low
(30%) via the LREF.
A reinforcing cold front looks to move through late Wednesday
evening, once again increasing PoPs to the 30-40% range. This
front will take its time traversing the area on Thursday, finally
clearing some time on Friday. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily Monday through Thursday as these two systems
make their way across the CWA. Near normal PWATs will contribute
to total QPF values only around an inch next week.
CAD
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level low
moving into Middle Tennessee will continue for a few hours after
sunrise before ending at all sites by midday. Winds will increase
as a deepening surface low over west Tennessee strengthens the
pressure gradient across the airspace. Expect northwest winds
through the day sustained near 20kt with gusts approaching 35kts.
VFR cigs should return during the afternoon hours. Winds will
gradually taper off overnight but LLWS is expected at all sites
after sunset through 8-9Z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree fell across Interstate 40, blocking traffic.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, April 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1173010.