A quick hitting winter storm brought around 12 hours of snow, centered over Connecticut, with the greatest amount of snow in Massachusetts falling on Cape Cod and the islands. This was a notoriously difficult to forecast storm passing south of 40/70 benchmark, which was a significant shift south in the final 24 hours leading up to the storm.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.
A quick hitting winter storm brought around 12 hours of snow, centered over Connecticut, with the greatest amount of snow in Massachusetts falling on Cape Cod and the islands. This was a notoriously difficult to forecast storm passing south of 40/70 benchmark, which was a significant shift south in the final 24 hours leading up to the storm. This moved the band of heavy snow well south of Boston (0.1) to Cape Cod which received 7-9 inches of snow. The heaviest snow of the storm fell in Hartford County, Connecticut where over 15 inches of snow was reported. The result was many schools and businesses in eastern MA closing and receiving little to no snow. Cape Cod had about 30,000 people lose power due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow. Winds were also strong on the Cape and islands, gusting 45 to 55 mph in the afternoon which reduced visibility in blowing snow. Winds gusted to 30-40 mph on the Rhode Island coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 4:55 AM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
455 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A quick hitting winter storm impacts the region today with heavy
snow south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, along with strong to
damaging winds for Cape Cod and the Islands. Coastal flooding is
likely Tuesday afternoon from Boston southward to Cape Cod and the
islands. Dry Wednesday and Thursday with gusty northwest winds
behind the system. The next chance for snow comes from a quick-
moving clipper system late Thursday night through Friday
morning. From there, trending temperatures trend below normal
for the upcoming weekend, and the potential for another fast-
moving clipper system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Points...
* Quick hitting Winter Storm today, with most significant snowfall
across RI and southeast MA
* Hazardous travel with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates mid morning to
mid afternoon across RI and SE MA.
* Wet snow & strong winds along the coast may result in power
outages.
Overview...
Such a difficult forecast given the sharp trend southward in the
heavy QPF during the last few runs which has played havoc with
snowfall accums, and still notable differences among various guidance
sources. Unusual for a near term forecast within 12 hours but here
we are. Guidance actually in good agreement on coastal low moving
eastward from the mid Atlc coast and tracking just south of the
benchmark this afternoon while undergoing rapid deepening. The
southward shift likely a result of northern stream trough being a
bit less amplified and hanging back across Gt Lakes as southern
stream system approaches leading to upper confluence to the north.
Many of the hi-res sources including the HRRR, NAM3k, WRF-ARW, NSSL-
WRF showed a notable southward shift in QPF from 12z to 00z with
sharp gradient near the south coast which adds to the uncertainty.
Gradients lead to big bust potential. GFS held firm with QPF
forecast while ECMWF actually trended north a bit but still a sharp
gradient near the coast. Due to the spread in the guidance, we opted
for a blend which resulted in a lowering of snowfall amounts along
and north of the MA Pike with warnings converted to advisories along
and north of BDL-ORH-BOS and the advisory for NW MA dropped. Winter
storm warnings remain in place for eastern CT, south of ORH to BOS.
Timing, ptype, snowfall and impacts...
Precip will be overspreading CT/RI 4-6 am then lifting north and
east across MA between 6 and 8 am. Ptype mainly snow, but marginal
BL temps across southern RI and eastern MA may result in some rain
or rain-snow mix at the onset for an hour or 2 before it flips to
snow as omega increases and dynamic/adiabatic cooling commences.
Strong mid level frontogenesis is confined to near the south coast
where soundings show 20-40 units of omega within the DGZ supporting
1-2"/hr snowfall rates and very hazardous travel. Given cold temps
aloft, heavy snowfall will result in temps quickly falling to 32-33F.
The best chance for these heavy snowfall rates will be across RI and
SE MA from mid-late morning until about mid afternoon, but mostly
through the afternoon for the Cape/Islands. While SLR will likely be
well below 10:1 for a few hours at the onset, SLR may increase above
10:1 during the heavy snowfall given favorable snow growth. This is
a fast moving storm and the window for heavy snow is relatively
brief but should be enough for snowfall of 6-10 inches in RI and SE
MA. However, if rain or rain-snow mix lingers a bit longer than
expected these amounts will end up being a bit too high. May see a
secondary max in snowfall across far SE MA and Cape Cod as heavy
snow develops this afternoon in the comma head.
Further N, expect a sharp drop off in snow accums to 3-6" near the
MA Pike to Hartford, decreasing to 2-4" north of the MA Pike. Across
NW MA the column never fully saturates and may only see spotty light
snow with any accum and inch or less. Snow will quickly taper off
and end by early afternoon in the CT valley, 3-5 pm in the I-95
corridor and 5-7 pm across the Cape/Islands.
Heavy wet snow may lead to snow load issues, mainly across southern
RI and SE MA and Cape Cod where some power outages are possible.
Regarding wind potential, best chance of damaging wind gusts to 50-
60 mph will be over the Cape/Islands, especially Nantucket as low
pres deepens and pressure falls increase to the south. The strongest
winds will likely be late afternoon and early evening as winds back
to the N and boundary layer deepens increasing mixing of strong
winds aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...
Much drier air moves into the region with clearing skies developing,
but may see a few snow showers developing overnight in the
Berkshires ahead of a mid level shortwave and cold front. Lows will
be in the 20s.
Wednesday...
Upper trough passage in the morning with cold front dropping south
of the region. Increasing cold advection will result in gusty NW
winds 25-35 mph developing but plenty of sunshine with very dry air
in the column. Below normal temps with high upper 20s to mid 30s,
and wind chills in the teens and 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
* Clipper system Thursday night into Friday with minor snowfall and
gusty WSW winds.
* Temperatures trend below normal this weekend with the possibility
of another quick hitting clipper system, though confidence in that
secondary clipper remains low.
Wednesday Night and Thursday: Overall quiet conditions as a 1025mb
surface high pressure sits between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Very dry
conditions, PWATs less than 0.15 inch supports clear sky during the
overnight hours and first-half of Thursday. Winds are steady, which
will help temperatures from free-falling, but it will still be cold
with lows between the teens and 20s. Sunny to start Thursday, clouds
advect from the southwest with the increasing southwest flow. Near
normal highs, upper 30s and low 40s. West wind becoming southwest
around 10 mph.
Thursday Night into Friday: Zonal mid-level flow across the northern
Great Plains through northeastern United States, a clipper develops
off the northern Rockies Wednesday, reaching our neck of the woods
Thursday evening. A quick hitter, exiting the waters sometime Friday
mid-morning. Profiles support enough cold air and moisture with the
system for minor snowfall accumulations. Temperatures overnight are
mid 20s to 30 degrees. In terms of potential snowfall, there has
been little change from our previous issuance. The NBM 25th to 75th
percentile snowfall ranges between 1 and 4 inch north of Mass Pike,
while areas south ranges between a trace and 2 inch. In addition to
any snow, periods of gusty winds are possible as the surface low
deepens as it traverses the region. 925mb winds are generally 35 and
45 knots, which will provide a breezy/gusty period from early Friday
morning through the afternoon with gusts from the WSW between 30 and
40 mph. Seasonable afternoon highs in the middle and upper 30s.
This Weekend: Potential for another quick moving clipper system
moves across southern New England as early as the predawn hours of
Saturday, exiting by Saturday afternoon. Followed by surface high
pressure. That said, there remains a good amount of uncertainty
amongst the deterministic guidance. Noticeably colder for much of the
upcoming weekend... A colder air mass sinks south, afternoon highs
Saturday and Sunday are below normal in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are upper single digits and teens, and
teens and 20s Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence in trends moderate in timing.
VFR for much of the night with high clouds in place. Should see
the precip spreading in from SW to NE from roughly the 10-14Z
timeframe. During this period will see conditions deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR as snow spreads in across CT and much of interior MA.
RI and eastern MA starting off as rain or a rain/snow mix
initially. Light N/NNE winds increasing to 5-10 kts toward
daybreak and shifting to the NE.
Today...Moderate confidence.
Conditions continue to deteriorate to MVFR to LIFR conditions
with moderate to heavy snowfall. Precip across RI/eastern MA
initially rain or rain/snow. Should transition over to all snow
by roughly 14-16Z as intensity picks up. The only exception is
the Cape/Islands where could be as late as 16-18Z. Snowfall
heavy at times with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates accumulating
quickly from CT into RI and SE MA during the morning hours.
These heavier rates will be over SE MA including Cape Cod and
the Islands from 18-22Z. Worst conditions from roughly 14-18Z
inland and 16-22Z across the Cape/Islands. Winds out of the NE
at 15-30 kts shifting to the N/NNW during the afternoon. Gusts
of 25-50 kts. Highest speeds/gusts across the Cape/Islands.
Tonight...High confidence.
Snow tapers off roughly 21 to 02Z across eastern areas. Rapid
improvement to VFR. Winds out of the N/NW at 5-15 kts during the
evening shifting to the W late. Gusts diminishing rapidly across
the Cape/Islands from 25-35 kts around 00Z to 15-25 kts toward
06Z.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR with NW winds 15-25 kts. Winds gusting 25-35 kts.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence.
Rain spreads in by roughly 12-13Z. As precipitation intensity
picks up should see a change over to all snow by roughly 14-16Z.
Moderate to heavy snowfall from roughly 15-20Z. Still some
uncertainty on the northern extent of precipitation and snowfall
totals. At this point reasonably looks like roughly 3-6 inches
of snowfall. Improving to VFR roughly 23-01Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Snow moves in around 10-11Z with conditions deteriorating
quickly with LIFR and moderate snow from 13-17Z. There remains
uncertainty on the northern extent of precipitation and snowfall
totals. At this point reasonably looking like 2-4 inches of
snow. Improving to VFR by roughly 20-22Z.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
40 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN, chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance
SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
Gale warnings remain in place across much of the waters for gusts 35-
45 kt, except storm warnings south and east of Cape Cod waters for
gusts 45-55 kt. Strongest winds occur this afternoon into early
evening as winds back from NE to N as strong low pres passes south
and east of the waters. Seas build to 10-15 ft over outer eastern
waters late today and this evening.
Tonight...High confidence.
Diminishing wind with gusts decreasing to less than 25 kt overnight
with gradually subsiding seas.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Cold advection and increasing pressure gradient will result in
another period of gale force winds over the open waters with NW
gusts increasing to 30-40 kt in the afternoon/evening.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough
seas up to 11 ft. Chance of freezing spray.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow.
Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely, chance of snow. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of snow.
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow, chance of rain.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Key Points:
- Coastal Flood Warning for entire eastern MA coast.
- Widespread minor to moderate flooding during afternoon high tide
along E MA coast with significant beach erosion.
- Residual minor flooding possible for early Wed AM high tide.
Fairly high confidence on widespread minor flooding (up to one foot
deep) with pockets of moderate flooding (1 to 3 feet deep) in more
vulnerable locations during the afternoon high tide along eastern MA
coast.
Little change from earlier thinking. Expecting a storm surge of 2 to
2.5 feet with higher values focused south of Boston to Cape Cod Bay,
Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard and somewhat lower values of around
2 feet closer to NH border. Despite the lower surge along NE MA
coast, impacts will be higher than usual given significant coastal
erosion that has taken place this winter.
Finally, we should see some minor coastal flooding around high tide
early Wed morning due to leftover surge and continued rough seas.
Flow is more N/NW by that time which could favor Cape Cod Bay
shoreline communities for most of the impacts. Coastal Flood
Advisories may be needed after we pass the afternoon high tide cycle.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ002.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ003-
004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
MAZ004>007-009>011-014-015-026.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ012-
013-016>024.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 5 PM EST this
afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM EST this evening for
MAZ022>024.
RI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-231-236.
Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ232-254-255.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ233>235-237-250-
251-256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...BL/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/Dooley
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWDThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Generally 5 to 10 inches of snow fell, with more in western Rhode Island and less in eastern Rhode Island. Some notable accumulations include 10.5 inches in Scituate, 10.3 inches in Foster, and 9.7 inches in Smithfield.
Generally 3 to 7 inches of snow fell. Some notable accumulations included 7 inches in North Providence and 5.8 inches in Providence.
Generally 6 to 8 inches of snow fell. Some notable accumulations included 7 inches in West Greenwhich and 8.6 inches in Coventry.
Generally 6 to 8 inches of snow fell. Some notable accumulations included 8.5 inches in West Warwick and 6.2 inches at T.F. Green Airport.
Generally 3 to 7 inches of snow fell with 3 inches reported in Barrington.
Generally 3 to 9 inches of snow fell. Some notable accumulations included 9 inches in Richmond, 7 inches in North Kingstown, and 3.7 inches in Westerly.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Rhode Island in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Rhode Island, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1153588, 1153589, 1153590, 1153591, 1153592, 1153593.