A series of disturbances moving across the area brought alternating periods of moderate snow and moderate lake effect/lake enhanced snow to portions of west and central Upper Michigan from the 13th into the 17th.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A series of disturbances moving across the area brought alternating periods of moderate snow and moderate lake effect/lake enhanced snow to portions of west and central Upper Michigan from the 13th into the 17th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 12:00 AM EST, 1 hour earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1200 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Another shortwave tracking through the area has touched off additional light snow across the area this afternoon. -NW flow behind it, transitioning to the north overnight, will keep in lingering lake effect snow overnight into Tuesday. -Light totals below an inch are expected across most of the area, but a couple inches of fluffy snow are possible by Tuesday morning where terrain enhancement can occur in the north wind snow belts. -Above normal temperatures continue through midweek. A shot of cold air late this week will help temperatures settle to around normal. -Off and on light snow is expected through mid-week, periodically enhanced by clipper type shortwaves. More widespread light snow looks possible Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point though, snowfall is expected to be on the light side overall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Additional light snow has developed across the area this afternoon courtesy of another embedded shortwave dropping through broader troughing over the Great Lakes. Snowfall rates remain rather light, with HREF guidance generally indicating around a tenth of an hour at best, but radar trends and a subtle wind shift indicate a mesolow feature potentially developing in the lee of the Keweenaw. This could enhance snowfall rates somewhat over the north-central UP over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, with winds shifting over to the NW behind the wave, some lake enhancement is also expected across the western UP. Lake effect snow continues overnight as 850mb temperatures fall further to around -13 to -15C. With record warm Lake Superior water temps around 3C, we'll see lake-850 mb delta-T values increasing to around 16C this evening behind the trough. Model soundings show the inversion reaching at least half-way into the DGZ, with saturation from the DGZ to around 900mb. As winds shift over to the north, this could support embedded heavier snowfall rates in the northerly wind snow belts - particularly where orographic enhancement can occur. HREF shows snowfall rates around a quarter to half-inch per hour rates, and a low chance (around 20%) for rates up to an inch per hour. The most persistent lake effect should drop 1-2 inches by daybreak Tuesday, which currently appears to be across the Michigamme Highlands and near the Porcupine Mountain Wilderness area. Accumulating LES continues in the north wind belts through the rest of Tuesday morning. Otherwise, lows are forecast to reach the teens across much of the interior UP, and the low and possibly mid 20s across the eastern UP and nearer the Superior shoreline. However, it isn't out of the question that lake clouds inhibit temperatures somewhat, keeping us a couple degrees warmer than expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 The light lake-effect snow across the north wind snow belts over Upper Michigan wraps up Tuesday as high pressure ridging builds across the area. With the help of some upslope flow, up to around a dry inch of snow could fall over the north central from the morning to early afternoon hours before the lake-effect cuts off by the evening hours. While the CAMs composite reflectivity shows very light snow to flurries possibly continuing across the north central east of Marquette from mid Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, dry air entering into the region should cease the precipitation by Tuesday night. As a mostly dry warm front moves through the region behind the ridging on Wednesday, there is a slight (20%) chance that we could see some light snowfall over the far west and from Munising eastward if the dry air near the surface is overcome. However, besides this, we may only see a few flurries if anything at all as the dry layer near the surface looks to be too strong and the forcing too weak to bring any snowfall to the ground. While the NBM has the high temperature above freezing for almost the entire U.P. Wednesday, I have doubts that we will get above freezing as skies appear to be cloudy for most of the day and raw model guidance generally keeps high temperatures at or below freezing. That being said, should there be a hole in the cloud cover, it is plausible that temperatures could peak into the mid 30s. Our focus shifts to Wednesday night and Thursday as two shortwaves, one moving through northern Ontario and one lifting through the Midwest, phase with one another. As this occurs, it's possible (30 to 50% chance) that we see some light snowfall occur across the area. However, some model guidance such as the GFS and NAM12km keeps the snowfall only limited to Menominee County as dry air entrained at the mid-levels keeps snowfall out of the rest of the area. On the opposite end, the Canadian regional actually brings around 0.10 to 0.40 inches of QPF to the area Wednesday night through Thursday, with the greatest amounts over the south central; this could bring a few inches of light snowfall across the area. Therefore, the dry air at the mid-levels looks to play a considerable factor in determining whether we receive snowfall and how much snowfall we receive. Behind the shortwaves, model guidance shows the return of lake- effect snowfall across mainly the northwest wind snow belts late this week through this weekend. We could see the lake-effect snow wax and wane through this weekend into early next week as a couple of shortwaves pass through our area. While we are likely (70% chance) to see some above normal temperatures Wednesday, we should see temperatures much closer to normal the rest of this week into this weekend as a shot of cold air fairly typical for this time of year drops down from Canada across our region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Thru today, colder air settling over Lake Superior will lead to lake effect -shsn and mostly prevailing MVFR cigs off of Lake Superior under northerly low level winds. At IWD, upslope winds have led to IFR cigs recently. These IFR cigs will give way to MVFR in the next hr or two. Meanwhile, CMX has improved to VFR recently, but a passing sfc trof should bring a return to MVFR cigs in the next few hrs. SAW has also improved to VFR. Passage of sfc trof at SAW will be accompanied by heavier shsn and IFR conditions in the 10-12z time frame. These heavier shsn will diminish by mid morning. During the day, expect -shsn to be light at all terminals, mainly just flurries, with vis likely to be VFR. Passing sfc high pres ridge this evening will result in flurries ending and MVFR cigs scattering out to VFR from w to e. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less will be seen from the rest of this afternoon through Wednesday night, although some northerly gusts up to 25 knots could be seen over the eastern lake tonight through Tuesday morning; some light to occasionally moderate freezing spray could be seen across the lake tonight through Tuesday morning also. As two shortwaves north and south of the lake phase with one another Wednesday night into Thursday, they both head towards southern Ontario, with northwest winds picking up to 20 to 30 knots behind the shortwave lows as cold air advection works its way over Lake Superior; while I'm thinking the chance is low (40%), it is possible that we will see some gales up to 35 knots over the far eastern lake by Thursday evening. In addition, we will see light to moderate freezing spray return across the lake from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. As the cold air advection weakens, expect to the see the winds decrease to 20 to 25 knots from the northwest Thursday night through Friday. As we have a couple of shortwaves moving through the region this weekend into early next week, expect the winds to re-intensify with each shortwave. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ243-244. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ248>251. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...TAP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 326 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-132030- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 326 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 /226 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-132030- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 326 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 /226 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There is a chance for marginal gales to around 35 knots Thursday into Thursday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-132030- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 326 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The Marquette National Weather Service office in Negaunee Township measured 6.0 inches of lake effect snow in 16 hours. There was a report of 5.1 inches of lake effect snow over the same period in Sands Township south of Marquette.
A social media report of 3.5 inches of wet snow in approximately seven hours in southern Stambaugh Township.
Observers in the Iron Mountain/Norway area measured between 3 and 4 inches of wet snow in approximately eight hours.
There was a public report of 6 inches of lake effect snow in 48 hours at Rockland.
Observers across southern Delta County measured between 4 and nearly 6 inches of wet snow over an approximate nine-hour period.
There was a social media report of 6.5 inches of wet snow in approximately eight hours in Carney.
There were reports of 3 inches of wet snow in Parent Bay and Hiawatha in approximately ten hours.
There was a social media report of 4 inches of wet snow six miles south of Dollarville in approximately six hours. There was a Facebook report of 7 inches of snow in 24 hours north of McMillan.
There was a public report from near Mount Arvon of 9.5 inches of lake effect snow in 48 hours.
Observer 24-hour lake effect snowfall reports included 5.0 inches eleven miles south of Grand Marais and 4.9 inches six miles southeast of Forest Lake.
There was an estimated 3 to 5 inches of lake effect snow that fell over northern Schoolcraft County in the 24-hour period ending on the morning of the 17th.
Observer 24-hour lake effect snowfall reports included 11.4 inches at Twin Lakes and 4.6 inches at Painesdale.
The observer at Herman measured 4.5 inches of lake effect snow in 24 hours.
A NWS employee measured 3.5 inches of lake effect snow in 3 hours in Harvey.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1162006, 1162007, 1162008, 1164279, 1162009, 1162010, 1162012, 1162015, 1164278, 1162019, 1164269, 1162016, 1162020, 1164277.