NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 3:45 PM MST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 3:45 PM MST, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
345 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Several disturbances, generally weak, will cross through
the region through Friday, bringing periods of valley rain and
mountain snow, primarily for the northern Utah mountains. After a
brief break Saturday, an active and moist pattern redevelops
Sunday on into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Thursday)...Forecast region remains
within zonal flow regime this afternoon, with mid/upper level
moisture advecting through and yielding some cloud cover
accordingly. Despite this mostly opaque cloud cover, temperatures
across the forecast region largely remain near to slightly above
normal.
Moving overnight into early Wednesday, a quick and fairly weak
shortwave brushes through the northern periphery of the forecast
region. Along with marginal slug of moisture, this feature will
help push a meager baroclinic zone through northern Utah (H7 temps
around -4C to -6C falling into roughly the -7C to -9C range).
Precipitation chances increase across the northern mountains as
early as late this evening, with lower elevation precipitation
seemingly largely confined near the aforementioned baroclinic
zone. CAM guidance continues to show a fairly large spread for
mountain water amounts, with the some sources such as the HRRR
showing as little as around 0.05" to 0.10" of liquid, and some
such as the NAMNest exceeding 1.00" in spots. Think the reality
will end up being on the more meager side given that the system as
a whole is pretty unimpressive, so current forecast reflects a
general 0.10" to 0.30" for the northern mountains. Some locally
higher amounts will be possible, with most CAM members
highlighting the Provo area mountains as the most likely place to
see some of those high numbers. With the current snow levels,
generally expecting a rain/snow mix for the Wasatch Front valleys,
with a bit more snow mixing in at higher benches. Snow levels
nearer the Idaho border will be low enough to keep mostly snow,
but even then anticipate any accumulations to be light. Overall,
main impact looks to be some light snow accumulation on any of the
more elevated routes through the northern mountains.
On Wednesday, the trough begins to exit the region. Flow shifts
to more of a warm air advection regime in advance of the next
system (see long term discussion), with precipitation largely
expected to more or less end with the exception of the far
northern Utah mountains and other areas nearer the Idaho border.
Despite lingering cloud cover, temperatures once again look to be
somewhat on the mild side Wednesday, coming in near to slightly
above climatological normal. Despite the quick break,
precipitation chances begin to climb once again overnight into
Thursday as the next system begins to push in.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Thursday)...A storm system ejecting across
the PacNW region will move across the forecast area through the day
on Thursday, bringing a round of mixed valley precipitation and
mountain snowfall across the northern two-thirds of the forecast
area. An active weather pattern will persist through at least Friday
evening as a trailing wave moves across the norther portions of Utah
and southwest Wyoming which will help to maintain mountain snowfall
and colder valley temperatures. Numerical weather models have made a
notable upward trend in precipitation forecasts for the higher
terrain of northern Utah through this active period, with guidance
being well in support of snow water amounts ranging from 0.75 to
1.25 inches and snowfall amounts around 6 to 12 inches through
Friday evening. For valley areas expected precipitation amounts
range from ~0.05-0.1" in the Sanpete Valley, 0.1-0.25" along the
Wasatch Front, and 0.25-0.4" for the Wasatch Back and Cache Valley.
A large majority of this precipitation will occur through the first,
more significant, wave on Thursday into Friday, with generally
little additional accumulations through Friday. That said, portions
of the central and northern Wasatch will still see 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall contributed from the Friday wave. Bottom line, mountain
impacts will be greater the farther north you go in the forecast
area, with the highest amounts of snow forecast for the Bear River
range and the upper Cottonwood Canyons.
Valley precipitation type, particularly in the Cache Valley are a
bit more uncertain. By the time of precipitation onset in northern
Utah, which will occur during the mid-morning hours, overhead
temperatures will be too warm for valley snowfall. By the time
temperatures become cold enough for valley snow, a bulk of the
support for heavier precipitation will come to an end, allowing
things to transition to mountain focused precipitation. That said,
higher precipitation rates with overhead temperatures that are
borderline for valley snowfall may allow for precipitation to
rapidly transition to snowfall. As it stands, NBM shows a low (10%
or less) probability of seeing more than 1 inch of snowfall in the
Cache Valley and northern Wasatch Front, but these smaller scale
occurrences can often become over smoothed by guidance.
After these two consecutive waves later in the week, ridging will
reestablish temporarily on Saturday which will help to bring mostly
dry conditions. Shortly thereafter, an active pattern will resume
its barrage on the eastern Great Basin region. Model guidance is
showing generally high confidence in active weather remaining in
place through early next week, with a series of Pacific storm
systems anticipated to move through Utah and southwest Wyoming. As
of the 12Z model runs on February 13, guidance shows trends that
would favor valley rain and mountain snowfall. There is uncertainty
in how quickly this series of systems evolves, which will also
influence timing of precipitation, intensity, and the areal
extent... so continue to monitor upcoming forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will be maintained over the KSLC
terminal through the remainder of the evening hours. Northwest winds
will prevail through around 03-04Z, becoming a light southerly flow
thereafter. Increasing cloud cover will spread over the terminal
through the overnight hours, with vicinity shower activity
increasing around 05Z. CIGs will remain above 6kft AGL through at
least 06Z, but will likely begin to obscure local terrain through
the remainder of the night.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
across the forecast area with increasing cloud cover through the
evening and overnight hours. An area of precipitation is expected to
spread across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area through
the overnight hours, with the biggest impacts expected to be tied to
the mountainous terrain. Obscuration of local topography is expected
across the northern half of Utah from about 06Z through 22Z.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Webber
AVIATION...Webber
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