Warmer than average temperatures during the previous three months along with insufficient rainfall, much below average streamflows, groundwater levels and dried out soil conditions prompted the development of Severe Drought conditions in parts of Northeastern PA. Conditions reached this drought threshold during the second week of the month and held steady through the 30th.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
Warmer than average temperatures during the previous three months along with insufficient rainfall, much below average streamflows, groundwater levels and dried out soil conditions prompted the development of Severe Drought conditions in parts of Northeastern PA. Conditions reached this drought threshold during the second week of the month and held steady through the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 6:45 AM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 645 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and blustery weather expected behind the cold front today, with a few light lake effect rain or snow showers around this morning. Skies clear this evening into tonight, with cold overnight temperatures expected. Sunny and seasonable weather returns for Wednesday, under strong high pressure. There will be a low chance for some light rain returning to the forecast late Thursday into Thursday night, before likely drying out again for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 640 AM Update No significant changes to the forecast with this update. Light lake effect streamers are setting up NW to SE across Central NY and the northern tier of PA as expected. Most of this has been in the form of rain, but a few of the web cams on the NY mesonet have shown snow flakes mixing in for the higher elevations.According to the SPC Mesoanalysis it is down to -1C at 925mb and -5 to -6C at 850mb currently. Surface temperatures are mainly above freezing; between 34 to 40 over CNY, with milder upper 30s to mid-40s still in NE PA. Overall, it is mainly running 2-4 degrees above what was in the forecast; so adjustments were made...however this may be a case where temperatures fall even a bit more after sunrise due to continued CAA from the NW. 255 AM Update A cold, blustery northwest flow pattern will remain in place over the forecast area today. 850mb temperatures will fall to around -6C this morning, which will be cold enough to sustain some light lake effect rain, and possibly snow showers or flurries. No accumulation expected. Temperatures struggle to reach the upper 30s to mid-40s this afternoon with the rather strong cold air advection in place. Winds will be out of the NW at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph expected...a few localized gusts around 35 mph are possible over the higher, exposed terrain locations. Skies remain cloudy over most of the area through the morning and midday hours. Then, as drier air works its way in, any lingering sprinkles/flurries will dissipate before noon, and there will be some partial clearing of the strato-cu cloud deck from south to north during the afternoon hours...uncertainty remains on exactly when this cloud deck will become broken and eventually scatter out. High pressure build in later this evening into tonight with skies becoming mainly clear. Can't rule out a few lake effect clouds lingering down wind of Lake Ontario on the cold, northerly flow. Winds do diminish, below 15 mph by sunset, and under 5 mph in most locations after midnight. This setup will allow for cold overnight lows in the upper 10s to mid-20s. Used a blend of NBM, NBM50th and Bias Corrected CONSALL guidance for forecast lows. Upper level ridge will be over head on Wednesday, with a 1030mb surface high also in place. Skies will be sunny and temperatures do eventually warm up to seasonable levels in the afternoon (mid-40s to lower 50s). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 AM Update... The short term starts off with some weak ridging over the Northeast Wednesday night. With the surface high in place and dry air aloft, conditions are favorable for radiational cooling so overnight lows were lowered towards the NBM 10%. The ridge axis does look to move east of the region by Thursday morning with southerly return flow setting up. Many of the global models are showing a strong ridge developing south of Greenland setting up a blocking pattern. A trough over the Canadian maritimes likely begins to retrograde Thursday with cold, northerly flow into the Mid Atlantic. Despite the southerly flow Thursday, we may see weak cold air advection from the south. A shortwave tries to push into the region Thursday into Thursday night but with the retrograding trough, the shortwave may be shunted to the south into central PA rather than into our area. Chances of precipitation were kept under 50% as there is still uncertainty in how far east the precipitation can make it. If the precip can make it into NEPA and CNY, forecast soundings are very dry near the surface through about 700 mb. Evaporative cooling associated with the precipitation moistening the atmosphere from the top down may be enough to cool the column for some snow to reach the ground initially. Snow showers were not added to the grids though given the uncertainty of the precipitation even reaching the area as well as the timing of precipitation onset. Friday looks to dry out as the retrograding trough wins out in the models. Northerly flow strengthens though since the retrograding upper low is stacked and mostly occluded, the cold air advection is weak. Chances of precipitation were increased for the Tug Hill as the stronger North Atlantic blocking may push wrap around Atlantic moisture farther west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 AM Update... The long term looks to go back to the pattern that we have been in for weeks with western troughing and a ridge building back into the east. Southerly to southwesterly flow will provide weak warm air advection through the weekend so day time high temperatures slowly inch up Saturday into Monday. The weak sun at this time of year will limit the warming potential as well as cloud cover so despite fairly warm 850 mb temperatures, surface temperatures may be closer to climatology. Early next week, some of the global models show a shortwave sneaking into the northeast though ensembles are all over the place with the timing of the trough so precipitation chances were kept low as of now until there is better consistency. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1245 AM Update Mainly MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alternate conditions will persist through 15-18z this morning before CIGs lift and scatter out to VFR for most locations this afternoon. This timing could still change by a few hours, as confidence is low on exactly when the CIGs will break. Expect a few light rain and/or wet snow showers around this morning INVOF SYR, ITH, ELM and BGM but vsby restrictions would be MVFR and very brief, if any. As mentioned above, it turns VFR by afternoon, with skies clearing later this evening and through the overnight period. Northwest winds will remain quite strong with sustain speeds of 10-18 kts and gusts as high as 20 to 28 kts through at least early afternoon. Winds will eventually gradually diminish this afternoon and evening, dropping below 15 kts by sunset, then eventually less than 5 kts for the overnight period. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR expected (high confidence) Thursday...Low confidence forecast. A low pressure system may graze southern portions of the area with rain showers and associated restrictions possible in PA and south-central NY by late afternoon, evening or overnight. Friday and Saturday...Low confidence forecast. NW flow could bring some lake effect clouds into the area with associated restrictions, but VFR is more likely should drier air work in. && .FIRE WEATHER... 300 AM Update Conditions will be mainly cloudy through the morning hours, with some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon hours. Most of the area has seen a wetting rain over the past 24-48 hours, with amounts ranging from 0.10 to 0.70 inches. RH values start in the 80-100 percent range around daybreak, then fall between 38-52% over the valley locations of the Twin Tiers, Mohawk Valley, Wyoming Valley and Catskills. The higher elevations only see minimum RH values of 50-60% this afternoon. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the strong, gusty NW winds. Sustained winds are 10-20 mph this morning and into the midday hours, with gusts between 25-35 mph, especially over the Catskills and Poconos late this morning. By late afternoon winds start to gradually decrease areawide, and fall back below 15 mph by mid- evening. Will collaborate any fire weather statements if needed. Humidity levels look much drier on Wednesday, dropping between 25-40% in the afternoon, but winds are also much lower...northeasterly at 3-8 mph, with gusts to 12 mph. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ208-209. && SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...MJM FIRE WEATHER...MJM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 309 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-130815- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 309 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The U.S. Drought Monitor declared Severe Drought over the southern quarter of the county as a result of insufficient rainfall during the past 90 days coupled with low streamflows, groundwater levels and drier than average soil moisture.
The U.S. Drought Monitor declared Severe Drought over the southernmost portion of the county as a result of insufficient rainfall during the past 90 days coupled with low streamflows, groundwater levels and drier than average soil moisture.
The U.S. Drought Monitor declared Severe Drought over all but the extreme northern portion of the county as a result of insufficient rainfall during the past 90 days coupled with low streamflows, groundwater levels and drier than average soil moisture.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1224632, 1224633, 1224635.