Drought in Florida, November 12 to 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
918 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Tonight's rain chances and sky cover were tweaked to account for
the latest trends. Late-evening satellite shows a stubbornly
persistent area of maritime convection south of Mobile Bay in
association with Rafael's remnant circulation. This feature is
maintaining cloudiness along/south of the FL state line and light
radar returns just off the Emerald Coast. Current guidance light
showers brushing the Panhandle, then slowly lifting into Southern
AL by dawn. Overall, expect quiet conditions overnight, outside
of fog development mostly favoring locations stretching from the
Dothan- Albany-Fitzgerald area. Forecast low temperatures range
from about 15 to over 20 degrees above normal!

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Widespread rain showers across the Florida Panhandle will
continue through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. These
showers are being caused by a surface trough extending
northeastward from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rafael and also
from a weak upper level shortwave progressing from west to east
across the southern tier of the US. As surface high pressure fills
into the region from the north overnight and into early Tuesday,
isolated/scattered showers should continue through the pre-dawn
hours as isentropic ascent and low-level convergence along the
surface trough continues.

As the surface trough is advected westward on Tuesday as surface
high pressure moves in and upper level ridging begins to develop
across the region, showers should diminish fairly quickly after
sunrise Tuesday. Cloudy skies will remain for a large portion of
the morning and early afternoon because partly cloudy conditions
develop for the afternoon. Temperatures will generally be similar
to today and in the low 80s, with the upper 70s likely in areas
that are slower to clear the clouds out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

A stalled front over the Gulf will move northward towards the
panhandle coast as a warm front, then become stationary during the
day on Wednesday. A surface High extending from the Mid-Atlantic
states will allow for cooler air to fall south into the region.
This will bring highs into the low to mid 70s and low 80s for
areas along and south of I-10. Rain chances begin to increase for
our central time zone counties during the overnight hours
Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next cold front as moisture
from the remnants of tropical cyclone Rafael is absorbed by the
approaching frontal system. PoPs range between 30-40 percent for
light rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

A cold front will be passing through the region on Thursday with
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms embedded within along the
front. PoPs range from 30-40 percent along and north of I-10
during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 70s. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s
for the rest of the period, however morning lows will be
noticeably cooler. Morning lows beginning Friday will be in the
mid to upper 50s, warmest along the coast. Upper 40s to low 50s
can be expected during Saturday and Sunday mornings. Following the
frontal passage, surface high pressure will move in from the
west, with upper level ridging building over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

A very moist air mass is in place across the terminals, with the
moistest part of the air mass over our FL terminals. Areas of
light rain are falling near the coast out of a mid-level cloud
deck, downwind of a stationary convective cluster in fast westerly
flow aloft. Over the next 24 hours, light NE surface wind may mix
some cooler air to the northeast with muggy air over the
terminals, bringing pockets of IFR cigs and reduced vsby late
tonight and Tue morning. Modest drying of the low-level air mass
during the day on Tuesday will help scatter out the lower cloud
layers, but thick mid-level clouds will still produce patchy
sprinkles or light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 903 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a sustained ESE wind
around 6 kts with 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 7 seconds
late this evening.

From CWF Synopsis...Light to moderate east winds tonight and
Wednesday with an uptick in speeds Tuesday night through Wednesday
night as an easterly surge develops as high pressure noses down
the Appalachians. Exercise caution can be expected with advisory
conditions mainly west of Apalachicola. Winds briefly turn
southeasterly ahead of a cold front slated to pass through the
waters Thursday night with winds becoming northerly Friday. Seas
continue the slow fall today and tonight but will increase midweek
coinciding with the increase in wind speeds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

The cool/damp conditions the last 24 to 48 should keep fire
weather concerns low through the next few days. The next chance
for a wetting rain will be Thursday as a cold front moves across
the area. However, the chance for a wetting rain is still somewhat
low given the higher rain chances. Cooler and breezier conditions
move in behind the front so its possible localized increases in
fire weather concerns are possible late in the week depending on
what locations receive a wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

No significant rainfall totals are expected over the next several
days. All our rivers are below flood stage and no riverine
flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  81  63  77 /  20  20   0   0
Panama City   71  81  66  80 /  40  30   0   0
Dothan        63  78  60  73 /  20  20   0   0
Albany        63  79  55  71 /   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      65  80  58  77 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    68  84  66  82 /  10  20   0   0
Apalachicola  73  80  68  78 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery