A couple of strong, slow moving fronts brought a combination of heavy swell and large wind waves to the southern Oregon coast. Waves were highest on south and southwest facing beaches.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A couple of strong, slow moving fronts brought a combination of heavy swell and large wind waves to the southern Oregon coast. Waves were highest on south and southwest facing beaches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 5:39 AM PST, 9 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
539 AM PST Tue Nov 12 2024
.DISCUSSION...A strong front associated with a low in the Gulf of
Alaska will approach the region late today and tonight, then move
inland on Wednesday. Today will be some isolated to scattered
light showers over the area, mainly along the coast and into the
southern Oregon Cascades. Then, as this strong front nears and
moves inland, it will bring strong winds and moderate to heavy
precipitation to the area. Additionally, high surf conditions will
affect the coast today into Wednesday. Behind the front, an upper
level trough will move across the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, resulting in a cool and showery pattern.
WIND: As the front approaches, winds will begin to increase this
afternoon. Then moderate to strong winds will develop this evening
into Wednesday, affecting many areas, with strongest winds along
the coast, over the mountains, into the Shasta Valley and across
higher terrain east of the Cascades. Models and ensembles continue
to show winds peaking along the coast late tonight as a strong
low level let, 70-75 kt at 925 mb moves onshore. This will result
in strong south winds along the coast with gusts of 60 mph and
locally higher gusts (up to 70 mph) over exposed headlands.
Inland, strong winds will develop tonight into Wednesday as a
strong mid level jet, 50 to 60 kt at 700 mb, moves over the area.
Strongest winds will affect the mountains, Shasta Valley and
higher terrain east of the Cascades, including the Summer Lake
area. Winds are expected to gust to 60 mph in the Shasta Valley
and gust to around 50 mph across higher terrain east of the
Cascades. Additionally, gusty south winds (with gusts to 45 mph)
are expected into the southern Rogue Valley, mainly near and south
of Talent and Ashland. High wind warnings and wind advisories
(NPWMFR) are in place for these conditions.
RAIN: Moderate to heavy rain is expected with this front,
especially for areas west of the Cascades. With strong south to
southwest flow, snow levels will remain high enough to keep winter
weather impacts limited (see below). Moisture transport with this
front will be high, with moderate to strong IVT (water vapor
transport) values of between 500 and 750. The same southwest flow
that will keep snow level higher, will also provide good upslope
mechanics along the coastal ranges, the Cascades, and the
Siskiyous, and especially the Curry County area. Heavy rainfall
amounts, between 2 to 4 inches (up to 6 inches is possible in the
Curry coastal mountains). Inland, models support 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rainfall west o the Cascades. Lighter rainfall will
affect areas that see downslope flow with the southerly winds,
including in the Rogue Valley and Shasta Valley. East of the
Cascades, expect generally light to moderate precipitation.
Moderate to heavy rainfall west of the Cascades will allow some
river rises but given the initially lower low river levels, no
flooding is expected. Nuisance flooding is possible, such as small
creeks and streams, ditches blocked by debris or fallen leaves,
or in poorly drained urban areas.
SNOW: Snow levels are forecast to remain near or above 5000 feet
for the duration of steady, moderate/heavy precipitation. This
will limit snow impacts to higher mountains in the Cascades,
including the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas, and the higher
elevations in Siskiyou County, including the mountains in Western
Siskiyou and near and south of Mount Shasta. The National Blend
of Models (NBM) ensemble forecast indicates snow levels near 5000
feet in the Cascades and Siskiyous, and locally lower at times.
The National Blend of Models show a high chance (70-80%) for 6
inches or more of snow at Diamond Lake pass with a low chance
(20%) for up to 12 inches of snow. For Crater Lake, there is a
high chance (70-80%) for around 12 inches of snow. Snow levels may
lower further in Siskiyou County, especially in the Mount Shasta
area. Near Mount Shasta, the NBM indicates snow levels starting
out around 4500 to 5000 feet, then lowering to near or above 4000
feet late Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon as
precipitation increases. This may result in some snow impacts from
heavy, wet snow across higher elevations, especially above 4500
feet, including for Snowmans Summit along Highway 89 west of
McCloud. The National Blend of Models show a high chance (70-80%)
for 6 inches of snow at Snowmans Summit and a low chance (20%)
for up to 12 inches of snow. For lower elevations in the Mount
Shasta City area, confidence is low on the details. Guidance
supports rain for Mount Shasta City. However, current high
resolution models indicate a potential for snow to fall down to
low elevations near and south of Mount Shasta City. We will
monitor this with additional model runs and update as confidence
increases in details.
Once the front passes, a cool, showery pattern will settle in by
Wednesday night as the upper level trough slowly moves overhead.
This will bring some additional light snow to the mountains as
well as light snow (up to an inch) along highway 97 north of
Chiloquin.
&&
.AVIATION...12/12Z TAFS...Some showers are still on the radar scope
this morning, however these showers are pretty light and ceilings
should remain above VFR levels this morning. This theme of VFR
ceilings will persist through the day with some lighter showers
ahead of the next front. Cloud decks should thicken by the evening
hours with the potential for MVFR ceilings along the coast by 0Z.
Wind shear could be a problem as well as the front moves closer to
shore. Model suggest winds could reach 50 knots at 1500 feet over
North Bend this evening with a lighter 15 to 20 knot southerly wind
at the surface. -Smith
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Tuesday, November 12, 2024...
A large long period swell is hitting some locations this morning
with buoy 50 reporting wave heights at 18 feet and 15 seconds.
These swell heights should increase into the morning and peak
around 7 to 10 am. The next cold front moves into the waters
Tuesday night with storm force winds. Later Tuesday night, the
chance for wind gusts greater than 55 knots is 80 to 90 percent
from Gold Beach northward between 5 and 25 nm from shore. Seas
remain elevated through Thursday, with improvement starting Friday
morning. -Smith
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 815 PM PST Monday, November 11, 2024...
A high long period swell has started moving into the waters this
evening behind the cold front. High surf is likely along the coast
tonight into Tuesday with breaking waves up to 26 feet. Another cold
front will move through the waters Tuesday evening with surf heights
lingering around the 26 foot mark into Wednesday morning. Wave
heights will peak late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning,
then decreasing seas are expected Wednesday evening. -
Stavish/Hermansen
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM PST Mon Nov 11 2024/
LONG TERM (Thursday morning through Sunday morning)...
An upper level trough will linger over northern California and
southern Oregon on Thursday and Friday. Post- frontal showers will
continue over the area, with the Oregon coast and the Cascades
getting the highest amounts through the end of the week. Coastal
areas could see about 0.5 inches of rainfall while west side
valleys could see 0.25 inches or less. Snow levels starting at
4500 feet on Thursday will fall to 3500 feet on Friday, supporting
chances for another 2 to 6 inches of snow in this area. East of
the Cascades, most areas will see an inch or less of snowfall over
these two days. Higher elevation terrain in Lake County may see
up to 3 inches of snowfall. In California, Mount Shasta and Modoc
County peaks may see 7 to 10 inches of snowfall.
Outside of precipitation, conditions will be less active through the
end of the week. Temperatures will fall slightly below seasonal
norms as the cold air mass behind Wednesday's front remains over the
area. The Oregon coast will be in the mid to high 50s while west
side valleys will see high 40s to low 50s. Areas west of the
Cascades will have highs in the 30s. For overnight lows, the Oregon
coast will be near 40 degrees. West side valleys will be in the low
to mid 30s. Areas east of the Cascades will be in the mid 20s on
Thursday night and in the low 20s to mid teens on Friday night.
A weak ridge will support a period of stability, with the noted
temperatures continuing through Saturday and Sunday. Long term
guidance shows a cold front arriving late Sunday into early Monday
morning, with a slight difference in timing between GFS and ECMWF
deterministic outcomes. While saying anything with high confidence
nearly a week early is difficult, models do show another round of
snow for the Cascades as well as western Siskiyou County ranges from
late Sunday through the day Monday. Possible snow levels of 2500 to
3500 feet could bring a few inches of snow to east side areas as
well. This front will be watched closely watched as better
information becomes available. -TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ026-030-
031.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022.
High Surf Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ027-
028.
CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Wednesday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
939 AM PST Tue Nov 12 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 AM Rain 4 NNE Takilma 42.11N 123.58W
11/12/2024 M1.00 Inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
24 hrs ending 8 am.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
941 AM PST Tue Nov 12 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 AM Rain 1 NNW Phoenix 42.28N 122.82W
11/12/2024 M0.25 Inch Jackson OR Trained Spotter
24 hrs ending 12 am Tues.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
The Point Saint George buoy (46027) and the Umpqua Offshore buoy (46229) reported swell sufficient to generate high surf. Surf heights reached 22 to 30 feet.
The Point Saint George buoy (46027) and the Umpqua Offshore buoy (46229) reported swell sufficient to generate high surf. Surf heights reached 22 to 30 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1223739, 1223740.