Winter Storm in Oregon, February 4 to 5, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
354 AM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will fall to the low 30s west of the
Cascades and low 20s east tonight, and this is near normal for
early February standards. Dry conditions will continue for the
next few hours.

The change will come with a low pressure system that will move in
from the south this morning. The placement of the low off of the
northern California coast will bring moisture into the area today
into Monday. The focus area for this system will be in southern
Siskiyou County, especially into the Mount Shasta area. Snow
levels will be between 2,500 feet and 3,500 feet through this
system. These snow levels will bring snow down to Black Butte Pass
on I-5 and Snowman Summit on Highway 89. Snow accumulations of 6
to 12 inches between 4,500 and 6,000 feet are expected around
Mount Shasta, western Siskiyou County, and over peaks of the
Warner Mountains through Monday morning. Areas above 6000 feet are
expected to get a foot or more of additional snowfall. The
Cascades, Lake and Modoc counties, and areas between 2500 feet and
4500 feet in Siskiyou County are expected to get 1 to 4 inches of
snowfall. The most impacts from falling snow on I-5 and Highway
89 in southern Siskiyou County will occur this afternoon, and
Snowman Summit could reach 1"/hour snowfall rates between 10 AM to
4 PM. A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect Sunday for the
Mount Shasta region. A Winter Weather Advisory surrounding this
area and including the Warner Mountains and parts of Lake County
including Lakeview and Valley Falls. Please see WSWMFR for more
details. Rainfall with this system will bring 0.75"-1.00" to the
coast with 0.25"-0.50" west of the Cascades, although lower
amounts will be found in west side valleys.

Winds are a concern today and Monday with portions of Highway 395 in
northern Modoc County and in Lake County north of Lakeview through
Alkali Lake expecting winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts near 35 to 45
mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the southern Rogue Valley
including Ashland and the southern Shasta Valley including Weed and
Gazelle because gusts this afternoon could reach 40-50 mph. Please
see NPWMFR for more information.

As the system wraps up, there will be drier conditions ahead
Tuesday. Another low will pass to our north later in the work week
with most areas seeing a 30-50% chance of precipitation. Light
snowfall amounts are in the forecast later this week with a few
inches for the Cascades Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will
overall be steady through the next week. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...Broad east to southeast flow is limiting
valley fog development this morning. Patchy areas of LIFR conditions
do exist, however, in portions of the Coquille/Umpqua Basins and
into the Illinois and Klamath River Valleys. Low pressure is slowly
edging into the region this morning as a cirrus sheild spreads over
the area. Conditions are generally VFR this morning, however,
conditions will gradually lower later this morning as this low
pressure brings moisture from south to north today. MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected in the Mt. Shasta region with periods of
rain/snow. These lower conditions will push northward into portions
of southern Oregon (especially from the Cascades eastward),
including Klamath Falls, this morning. VFR should prevail west of
the Cascades, though we do expect some MVFR and higher terrain
obscurations in areas of light rain/snow.

In addition to precipitation and lower ceilings, gusty south to
southeast winds are anticipated today, especially in the Shasta,
Scott and Rogue Valleys as well as east of the Cascades. The
elevated winds just off the surface will likely result in low-level
wind shear this morning in Medford with winds surfacing from a SE
direction at KMFR this afternoon. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday February 4, 2024...Low pressure will
deepen off the California coast today and move northeast toward Cape
Mendocino tonight. This will bring increasing north-northeast winds
today with steep to very steep seas developing again by this
afternoon. There remains a small percentage (about 25%) of models
that show a stronger low moving farther north up the coast Sunday
night into Monday morning, which could bring a period of south to
southeast gales as far north as Gold Beach. Most guidance, however,
takes the low into Cape Mendocino and weakens it, which keeps the
strongest winds south of Pt. St George/Crescent City and this is the
scenario reflected in the current forecast. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates.

The low finally moves inland Monday, with winds becoming northerly
and seas diminishing some, but remaining steep through much of the
week. Another front passes through the region on Wednesday with
unsettled weather expected through the end of the week. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST
     this evening above 3500 feet for ORZ030-031.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM PST Monday for
     ORZ026.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ080>083.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ080>083.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday for
     CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST
     this evening above 3500 feet for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
     Monday for PZZ370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ376.

&&