Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 1 to 2, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
111 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions across Central Nevada will continue
through this evening as an approaching system will bring
widespread valley rain and mountain snow on Thursday. Snow levels
will lower heading into Friday leading to overnight valley snow
lingering early in the day. A brief break occurs Saturday with
another low pressure system bringing more rain and snow to the
area Sunday and beyond.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.

A comma-like occluded low remains off the WA/OR coastline with a
very photogenic cold front in the form of the tail of the comma
extending as far south as southern California. This can be
observed on visible, IR, and WV satellite channels. Strong
southerly winds out ahead of this tail have already commenced
across Central and portions of Northern Nevada. Airfields such as
Elko, Ely, Eureka, and Tonopah have already observed gusts
ranging from 35-40 mph early Wednesday afternoon, and wind gusts
are expected to intensify heading into the evening and overnight
hours. Gusts as high as 45-55 mph are expected, with highest gusts
likely across the higher terrain. Many areas will see increasing
cloud cover heading into the evening with lowering ceilings. Highs
this afternoon will be in the 50s for most, with some approaching
60, which is well above average for this time of year.

Precipitation will work in after 10 PM this evening and will fall
as rain in valleys. Snow levels start out around 7000 feet, and
will gradually fall to 6000-6400 feet on Thursday, leading to a
rain/snow mix in the mountains, as well as snow in the high
valleys of central Nevada. While models and ensembles have been
hinting at the atmospheric river signal for days now, the recent
model trends have less rainfall across the state on Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night (Thursday morning) will be quiet warm with the
help of overcast skies and strong southerly winds. In fact, the
National Blend Of Models is hinting that there may be some record
Hi lows, as temperatures across the region will range from the
upper 30s to near 40. In general, most valleys will see 0.10-0.25"
of rain, with higher elevation spots receiving higher amounts. As
for snowfall, most valleys across the I-80 corridor wont see
anything, as snow levels, and timing continue to be resolved. as
for the US-50 corridor, a general 0.5-4 inches is possible, with
highest elevation passes and summits seeing closer to 4 inches.
Mountains above 6500-7000 feet such as the Ruby Mountains, and the
Tacoma range across NW Nye county will see the most snowfall,
with 6-16 inches being forecasted. Highs Thursday will be warm,
with highs in the 40s. Lows Thursday night drop into the 20s and
low 30s as snow levels continue to lower heading into Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Thursday.

Snow will continue into Friday morning with a gradual diminishing
trend through the day. Most accumulation will be across eastern
and northeastern Nevada. Travel impacts should be greatest Friday
morning as snow levels fall Thursday night through Friday morning.
However, greatest snow amounts of up to 6 inches Friday will be in
mountain areas. High elevation passes could see 1-3 inches but
temperatures rising above freezing in most locations will mitigate
impacts to roads in the afternoon.

A progressive wave pattern will result in a brief break Saturday
and much of Sunday across the state although surface temperatures
will remain on the cool side even under a building ridge. There
will be a few snow showers around over the weekend with minimal
impacts. A few breaks in the clouds Friday night should allow lows
Saturday morning in the teens and lower 20s with mainly teens for
Sunday morning.

Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance suggests with a good degree
of confidence in another Pacific low pressure system impacting the
area early next week beginning Monday. Cluster analysis shows
general troughing across the West Coast which overall would put
much of Nevada on the warmer side of the attendant precipitation.
So, another round of mixed precipitation is expected early next
week as moisture streams into the west coast of California. Snow
amounts look to be minimal in the valleys through midweek once
again with temperatures hovering in the 30s and 40s for high sand
lows in the 20s. WIth lows in the 20s however and some overnight
snowfall, this could present some travel impacts during the
morning hours each day.

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.AVIATION...Gradually lowering ceilings from western Nevada to
eastern Nevada will occur through tonight but should remain at mid
levels above 3000 feet until precipitation begins to affect the
reigon. Winds will be gusty from the south up to 30-35 knot gusts
in central Nevada including KTPH and KELY through the night. Onset
of rain showers will progress from west to east late tonight into
Thursday morning beginning at KWMC around 06Z reaching KEKO around
12Z. Virga will be common tonight as initial precipitation shield
will be high-based. Ceilings at times Thursday may be MFVR
occasionally but primary precipitation type of rain will limit
visibility restrictions at all TAF sites until Thursday night
where a transition to snow in valleys occurs.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday
ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and
East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday Southern Lander County
and Southern Eureka County...White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday
White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday Northwestern Nye County.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday
ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye
County.

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