High Wind in Kentucky, December 29, 2024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
247 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will last through Tuesday,
  followed by a return to winter cold to start the new year.

- Two main rounds of wet weather are forecast during the next
  week: one today into tonight and another from Monday night into
  Tuesday night.

- Winds will increase and become gusty out of the south to
  southwest today, with peak gusts mainly between 35 and 50 mph
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 246 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2024

The latest surface analysis is rather busy as a single surface low
is impacting much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The surface low
is currently over southern Indiana and is moving to the northeast.
Extending southeast from the surface low, a cold front is stretched
through the CWA all the way down to the Gulf Coast. To the north of
the CWA, a warm front is extended eastward into New England.
Locally, the cold front is tracking through the CWA leading to a
line showers working its way through the CWA. Also, courtesy of
steep lapse rates and an eroded inversion, those strong upper-level
winds will be able to mix down to the surface. Those winds will
continue through the afternoon and begin to diminish toward sunset.
Once the front crosses through the CWA, showers will begin to
diminish; however, a resurgence in PoP (20-50%) chances will exist
again tonight as showers in association with the comma head of the
low as the low wraps up and pivots to the northeast. Temperatures
will continue to fall through the day into the overnight and bottom
out in the low to mid-40s.

Monday brings a few lingering showers but those will quickly taper
off as surface high pressure nudges in from the southwest. Highs for
Monday will climb into the low to mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.
However, through the afternoon into the overnight, a warm front, in
association with an approaching system, will lift into the region
and bring increased shower chances (40-60%) overnight Monday into
Tuesday. Behind the warm front, WAA will allow for overnight lows to
only fall into the upper-40s to low-50s.  Also, accompanying the
approaching system, strong upper-level winds will build into the
region but like today, those winds will be largely confined to above
the inversion but will eventually mix down once that inversion
erodes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2024

The period will begin wet, as a low pressure ejects out of the
Plains into the Ohio Valley and becomes vertically stacked in the
upper levels. This will move by fast and overall looking at around a
30 percent chance of greater than a quarter of inch in the areas
near the Tennessee and Virginia borders to 60 percent near the
Blugrass region. Cold air advection will filter southward by
Wednesday and we could see some mix of snow. However, given the warm
anecedant conditions this will have minimal impacts.

The bigger news is this system does usher in a more seasonable air
mass than we have grown accustom to of late. Highs will remain in
the upper 30s to lower 40s through Friday and overnight lows in
the mid to upper 20s. Thursday night into Friday the guidance
continues to show another clipper system passing across the Ohio
Valley. This could bring in some light snow accumulations mainly
in the higher terrain nearer the Virginia border. The cold air
reinforces with this clipper, with highs struggling to rise above
freezing in most cases on Saturday. The ensemble systems are
showing that there is a 70 to 90 percent chances of seeing
afternoon highs below 32 degrees.

By the time we get to Sunday, we see another dynamic system take
shape across the Plains, with the potential for a coupled jet streak
structure. The models were showing some similar signals in the
previous runs, but have diverged some in the latest runs. Therefore,
there remains low predictability for how this will all shake out.
However, some of the guidance shows this could be a messy setup with
initial precipitation falling as snow before possibly changing to
a mix of snow, rain and freezing rain. Then to all rain as warm
nose pushes northward. Too early to talk impacts given the
variability, but is a system that needs to be watched. The longer
range guidance continues to lean toward a cold January with CPC
8-14 Day Outlook showing signal for below normal temperatures.
This seems to be well supported by the teleconnections and will
have to be monitored going into the second week of January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across the TAF sites minus
KLOZ where a light shower is quick passing over the terminal.
Otherwise, KLOZ will bounce back to VFR but as a cold front
approaches the CWA, terminals will fall into MVFR and remain VFR
through the remainder of the forecast period. Strong winds will
plague all TAF sites over the next several hours with sustained
southwesterly winds around 20 knots with gusts from 35 to 40 knots
and instances of possibly stronger gusts. Those winds will begin
to diminish toward 00Z and shift to the west-northwest. Lastly,
showers will be possible with the this cold front but will taper
off after 06Z for mainly KJKL, KLOZ, KSME and KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
310 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-107-109-110-112>120-301200-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-
Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
310 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon into tonight.

Strong winds will continue through the afternoon and early evening
with maximum gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected at most locations.

An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway and along and west of the I-75 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-108-111-301200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
Wolfe-Lee-
310 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon into tonight.

Strong winds will continue through the afternoon and early evening
with maximum gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected at most locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VORST/DJ