Blizzard and Winter Storm in Kansas, January 8 to 9, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

All remaining counties in the Winter Storm Warning have been
upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Virtually all (available) 00Z
guidance indicates significant snow accumulation (6-12 inches)
across the majority of the warning area. Guidance suggests that a
significant gradient in snow accumulation may exist invof the CO-
KS-NE border. With this in mind, the Winter Weather Advisory for
Yuma County CO and Dundy County NE remain in place, as-is.

630 pm MST Update: Current and recent model guidance/trends
support an upgrade from Winter Storm Warning to Blizzard Warning
for the I-70 corridor in northwest KS and far eastern CO. Further
northward expansion of the Blizzard Warning (toward the Nebraska
border) may be necessary. Refer to WSWGLD for further info.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 135 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

Cloud cover is holding strong today and not allowing for very much
warming across the area. Some short term guidance has been hinting
at some fog developing near the Tri-State border (Yuma, Dundy,
Cheyenne (KS). This seems plausible as this is where winds will be
the lightest and given how small dew point depressions currently are
it shouldn't take much cooling to reach saturation.

The main focus continues to be on the powerful, potentially very
impactful winter storm. Guidance continues to support the northern
track of the system with widespread heavy snowfall. The outlier is
currently the Canadian model which never strayed from the southern
track. Ensemble wise, GEFS has shifted a bit further west vs the EPS
which favors the highest snowfall totals for our eastern counties.
So there does still remain some uncertainly to exactly how this will
play out. Higher res guidance and the HREF continue the widespread
heavy snowfall that was mentioned earlier; so with all of that have
opted to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a warning along with the
addition of Yuma and Dundy counties to a Winter Weather Advisory.

Timing: guidance is overall in fairly good agreement on snowfall
developing across the area around 4am MT and rapidly expanding in
coverage and intensity through the morning and afternoon. The
heaviest snowfall should move east throughout the day, as light to
occasionally moderate snowfall continues on the backside of the
system through the evening hours.

Amounts: Overall consensus of guidance is for a widespread 4-8
inches with the exceptions being western portions of the COlorado
counties, where light accumulation of 1-4 inches is forecast. As for
the snowfall, there continues to be indications of convective
elements in a band or bands across the area. Overall confidence in
exactly where these bands set up in still a little fuzzy but
anywhere within the warning areas may be impacted by these heavier
bands. The snowfall rates within these convective bands may be as
high as 2 inch per hour rates which would result in amounts in the
double digits.

Wind: this is a fairly dynamic system and with a pretty strong shot
of CAA and pressure rises of 3-6mb over 3 hours. The strongest winds
currently look to lie south of Interstate 70, where a Blizzard
Warning has been issued. The nudge for me to go Blizzard Warning
for this area was the HREF mean wind gust showing a swath of 60+
mph winds moving across that area which is coincident with where
the strongest pressure rises lies. This along with a blowing snow
model from WFO Aberdeen was giving fairly high percentage in
visibility being 1/2 mile or lower for multiple hours based on my
current forecast. Winds will be gusty to sporadically strong
outside of the blizzard warning as well, so don't let your guard
down as near blizzard to blizzard conditions remain possible in
the Winter Storm Warning area. If the storm continues to track
north along with the strongest winds, then it is in the realm of
possibility that the blizzard warning may need to expanded. As for
Yuma and Dundy counties in the advisory, overall snowfall totals
currently look to be the lowest in each county respectively but
with accumulating snow and winds gusting 40-50 mph, near blizzard
conditions do remain possible.

Impacts: this storm does have the potential to be very impactful
from the potential closing of roads and power outages. Those with
livestock interests need to be aware of the potential for blizzard
conditions and the potential for significant snowfall along with
the blizzard conditions. As we head into Monday night, strong CAA
will lower temperatures into the single digits to mid teens across
the area. Winds will still be breezy from the northwest at 20-30
mph resulting in below zero wind chills. There is potential for
this be even colder as well depending snow pack and if clouds can
start to clear out quicker than currently forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

Shortwave ridge will move through on Tuesday with dry conditions.
Some blowing snow possible in the morning before the winds start
to diminish. Snow cover will impact temperatures with highs in the
30s and lows Tuesday night in the teens. A fast moving shortwave
trough moves through the zonal flow on Wednesday, but models
remain dry. Do see some increasing clouds and an increase in winds
behind it, however. Could see northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph
by late morning and into the afternoon, mainly in areas north of
Interstate 70. GFS has notably lower wind speeds than the ECMWF,
so confidence in winds is modest. Temperatures manage to warm
into the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the
single digits to lower teens.

Main story for the long term period will be much colder
temperatures as Arctic air enters the area for the first time this
season. The colder air enters the northeast corner of the area
Thursday morning and continues to filter in through the day. Highs
on Thursday will optimistically be in the 20s. Light snow will
also accompany the cold air on Thursday as another shortwave
trough moves through aloft. Models indicate an inch or two
possible with high snow ratios and low liquid equivalents. Winds
will be northeast at 15 mph and gusting up to 25 mph. Temperatures
continue to plummet Thursday night with occasional light snow or
flurries continuing. Low temperatures will be in the low single
digits to around zero. Wind chills will approach advisory criteria
of 15 below Friday morning.

For Friday through Sunday, much below normal temperatures will
continue as the Arctic air mass does not move. Highs will be in
the teens and 20s and lows mainly in the single digits below zero.
Some models are indicating even colder temperatures (ECMWF in
particular). Wind chills will be well into advisory criteria
range each morning of 15 to 25 below, perhaps into warning
criteria in a few places as well. Occasional light snow and
flurries will also continue through the entire period with a
series of weak shortwaves aloft. However, snow amounts should be
on the light side in the very dry Arctic air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1055 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

..Dangerous Aviation Weather Monday into Monday night..

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate at both terminals early
Monday morning.. as early as 09-12 UTC.. as precipitation /snow/
blossoms over the region. LIFR to occasionally VLIFR conditions
are anticipated to prevail throughout the day. While precip will
begin to taper off from west to east near the end of the 06Z TAF
period, sub-VFR conditions associated with blowing snow may
persist through 12 UTC Tuesday morning. Initially light and
variable winds (this evening) will shift to the N by sunrise
Monday morning, increasing to 15-25 knots shortly thereafter.
North winds will strengthen to 25-35 knots during the mid-late
morning (15-17 UTC), further strengthening to 30-40 knots by
early afternoon (17-19 UTC).. with gusts up to ~50 knots possible
at the GLD terminal. Blizzard conditions are expected at both
terminals during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday to 5 AM MST /6
     AM CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
     COZ090.

     Blizzard Warning from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ091-
     092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
     NEZ079.

     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ080-
     081.

&&

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
804 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-090315-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
804 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024 /904 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Patchy freezing fog may is possible in vicinity of the Tri-State
border this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A significant winter storm will impact the Tri-State area from
sunrise Monday morning through sunrise Tuesday morning. A Blizzard
Warning is in effect for the majority of the area, except Yuma and
Dundy counties, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

An Arctic airmass in Canada will surge southward into the Northern
and Central Plains late this week into next weekend, bringing well
below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chill readings
to the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snow accumulation to the National
Weather Service in Goodland via social media or telephone.

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
932 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     Fog              1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
01/07/2024  M0.25 mi         Sherman            KS   ASOS

            The ASOS in Goodland (KGLD) reported 1/4
            mile visibility in association with dense
            freezing fog at 9:31 pm MST (0431 UTC). Air
            temperature 17F.

&&

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1220 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     Fog              10 W Saint Francis      39.76N 101.99W
01/08/2024  E0.50 mi         Cheyenne           KS   Public

            reported on Highway 36.

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1223 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     Fog              10 NNE Goodland         39.48N 101.66W
01/07/2024  E0.05 mi         Sherman            KS   NWS Employee

            could barely see 15 yards.

&&

JTL