Florida, 2024

Wildfire in Florida, February 27, 2024

February 27, 2024 · NWS JAX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A large fire broke out near County Road 214 and prompted local evacuations.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

A large fire broke out near County Road 214 and prompted local evacuations.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 1:55 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 1:55 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 80S AGAIN AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...
...COLD FRONT BRINGS A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHARPLY
COOLER WEATHER ON THURSDAY...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OUR AREA...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1030 millibars)
centered near Bermuda and extending its axis southwestward across
the FL peninsula. Meanwhile, a strong cold front was diving
southeastward from the northern Rockies and the northern Plains
states towards the Upper Midwest. Aloft...stout ridging centered
over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico) was
building across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, downstream of a
trough that was set to dig southeastward from the northern
Rockies. A dry air mass remains in place locally, with warm air
advection and plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to soar
to the 75-80 degree range at most locations at 19Z, except 70-75
for locations north and west of Waycross. Dewpoints at 19Z
generally ranged from the 40s to the lower 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Troughing will continue to dig southeastward from the northern
Rockies, driving a cold front through the Great Lakes and the
upper Midwest tonight. Heights aloft will continue to rise
locally downstream of this digging trough and front, with nothing
more than patches of thin cirrus and perhaps some lower stratus
and patchy fog developing across inland southeast GA and western
portions of the Suwannee Valley during the predawn and early
morning hours on Wednesday. Otherwise, a light southerly breeze
will continue overnight, keeping lows in the 50s area-wide. Any
fog or low stratus that manages to develop should dissipate
shortly after sunrise on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

An upper trough will dig southeastward from the Great Lakes into
the TN river Valley on Wednesday, driving a cold front into the
SE US. Southwesterly winds become breezy ahead of the front with
gusts 20-30 mph. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with pockets of mid 80s.
The front will begin to weaken as it approaches the area as much
of the upper level support lifts away to the northeast. A few
showers will develop ahead of the approaching cold front and move
into inland SE GA Wednesday night. High pressure builds in the
wake of the frontal passage and wedges down the southeastern
seaboard on Thursday. Coastal troughing develops Thursday into
Thursday night generating showers that could shift onshore to
Flagler and St Johns counties. Brief cool and dry airmass advects
into the region lowering temperatures below normal with highs in
the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

A stream of upper level shortwaves will parade across the region,
creating unsettled weather into early next week. Scattered to
numerous showers will overspread beginning Friday as south-
southeasterly flow will maintain warm and moist conditions. There
will be just enough instability and lift from passing shortwaves
to support isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Highs will
remain steady in the 70s to around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Brief
periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at VQQ overnight,
but confidence was too low to currently include in the TAFs.
Breezy southerly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15
knots this afternoon, except at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals,
where the Atlantic sea breeze will move inland, resulting in
southeasterly surface winds around 10 knots. Surface winds will
shift back to southerly towards sunset, with speeds remaining
sustained at 5-10 knots overnight. South-southwesterly surface
winds will then increase shortly after sunrise on Wednesday, with
sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its
axis southwestward across the FL peninsula through Wednesday.
Southerly winds will remain at Caution levels of 15-20 knots
overnight both near shore and offshore. Seas of 2-4 feet will
prevail near shore through Wednesday night, with 3-5 foot seas
forecast offshore. A cold front currently diving southeastward
across the Plains states will enter the southeastern states on
Wednesday, passing through our local waters on Wednesday night.
Strong high pressure building over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
in the wake of this frontal passage will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard on Thursday, creating a surge of
northeasterly winds that will reach Small Craft Advisory levels of
20-25 knots both near shore and offshore during the predawn or
early morning hours, with occasional gusts to Gale Force possible
on Thursday morning. Seas will build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet
near shore from Thursday through Friday, with Advisory level seas
of 5-7 feet expected offshore.

This front will stall across the FL peninsula on Thursday, with
coastal troughing developing over our near shore waters by
Thursday night and Friday and generating showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms. This coastal trough will then lift slowly
northward during the weekend as high pressure shifts eastward and
off the Mid-Atlantic states, with onshore winds and the lingering
frontal boundary to our south keeping periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast.

Rip Currents: Low wave heights on Wednesday should keep the risk
low at area beaches. A surge of northeasterly winds and building
surf heights on Thursday will likely create a high risk at the
northeast FL beaches and a moderate risk at the southeast GA
beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Southerly transport winds will remain elevated overnight and will then
become breezy shortly after sunrise on Wednesday, with winds shifting
to southwesterly by the late morning hours and becoming breezy, with
frequent surface gusts of 20-30 mph possible during the afternoon hours.
These strong winds will again yield good to marginally high daytime
dispersion values on Wednesday. Surface and transport winds will shift
to north-northwesterly towards midnight on Wednesday night and then
northeasterly by the early morning hours on Thursday, with gusty
surface winds expected at coastal locations by the mid to late morning
hours, followed by breezy conditions spreading inland during the early
afternoon hours. These breezy onshore winds will yield generally fair
daytime dispersion values despite cloudy skies region-wide. A drier
air mass will briefly plunge into inland portions of southeast
Georgia on Thursday, with relative humidity values expected to fall to
near critical thresholds during the afternoon hours for locations
north of Waycross. Surface and transport winds will then shift to
northeasterly on Thursday night, easterly on Friday morning, and
southeasterly on Friday afternoon as chances for showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm gradually increase.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 155 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Moderate flooding continues along lower portions of the Altamaha
River near the Everett City gauge, where water levels have
crested. Water levels along lower portions of the Altamaha should
fall back to minor flooding on Wednesday and then below flood
stage on Friday. Water levels along upper portions of the Altamaha
River near the Charlotteville gauge have fallen below flood
stage. Water levels elsewhere along the Altamaha are expected to
fall below flood stage by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  81  50  64 /   0  10  20   0
SSI  58  77  52  62 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  56  82  54  63 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  59  82  57  68 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  55  82  56  70 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  54  82  57  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Coastal St. Johns

When
February 27, 4:00 PM EST
Where
Coastal St. Johns forecast zone
Reported by
Broadcast Media

A large brush fire developed near County Road 214. Roads were shut down in the area and localized evacuations were done. CR 214 was shut down from Lexington Street to a dirt road east of Power Line Road due to the fire.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, February 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158709.