A strong cold front brought strong southerly winds to Modoc County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A strong cold front brought strong southerly winds to Modoc County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 9:02 PM PST, 5 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
902 PM PST Sat Dec 28 2024
.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery is showing a warm front and
associated strong isentropic lift generating mostly light to
moderate rainfall across the CWA at this time, but areas of
heavier rain are developing along the coast and even some brief
heavy rain has been observed here at the airport in the last hour
or so. The general idea is that the warm front will continue to
lift to the north tonight as the cold front offshore approaches.
This will keep a corridor of moderate to, at times, very heavy
rainfall from the Curry/Coos coast to the coast ranges into
Josephine County and portions of Douglas County. The heavier rain
over portions of Jackson County could push back to the north
briefly. The cold front will then get a push inland early Sunday
morning and this will shift the heaviest rain band eastward again
and eventually east of the Cascades by mid-late morning. Post-
frontal showers will continue into Sunday evening behind the
front. In terms of rain amounts, 1-3 inches will be common in the
valleys west of the Cascades, lesser in the Shasta Valley since
most will come with the front late tonight/Sunday morning. 3-6
inches will occur in short order (most in the next 12 hours) for
portions of southern Coos/Curry Counties and into western
Josephine County. These areas are the most prone to urban, small
stream, and creek flooding tonight into Sunday due to excessive
rainfall. We have flood watches up, so be on the lookout for
possible advisories/warnings later on as the precip picks up. Much
of this rain will run off into the river systems, so main stem
river flood potential exists (it's already occurring on the
Coquille at Coquille) and we will be monitoring this for other
rivers tonight and issue any necessary additional flood warnings.
A strong mid-level jet is associated with this system and we are
expecting winds to pick up tonight as well. High Wind Warnings are
in place for the coast (especially south of Cape Blanco), the
Shasta Valley and over the East Side (higher terrain/Highway 31
near Summer Lake). Wind gusts in these areas could reach 65 mph.
Wind advisories are in effect for the remainder of the east side
for gusts of 45-55 mph.
Snow levels this evening are way up high (generally above 7000
feet). The exception to this in along Highway 97 north of Chiloquin,
where the cold air is holding on for a bit this evening. Some snow
in those areas this evening will lead to 1-4 inches (with a
change to rain in the next couple of hours as the warm front shifts
north. Snow levels will drop quickly as the front swings through
Sunday morning, lowering to higher pass levels (4000 feet) Sunday
afternoon. We have a winter weather advisory out for the Cascades
from around Highway 140 northward. Amounts of 8-12 inches are
expected around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake and perhaps down
around Highway 140 at Lake of the Woods. Most of the good
precipitation will be ending by Sunday evening, so while there can
be a little snow down to Siskiyou Summit, it shouldn't be too
impactful.
A much-needed break in the action is expected early next week,
though there is still a chance of showers Monday across NW
sections. -Spilde
.AVIATION...29/00Z TAFS...A very strong front will affect the region
through Sunday morning. This includes torrential rain, heaviest from
the coast to the Cascades. Also, south to southwest low level wind
shear of 40 to 50 kt at 2000 feet AGL, mountain obscuration, gusty
southerly winds, and areas of LIFR and IFR.
Precipitation intensity and coverage will diminish, but not end
altogether, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This will allow
conditions to improve slightly with a mix of MVFR and VFR likely.
But, snow levels will also fall Sunday morning into Sunday night,
from around 6000 feet to around 2500 feet MSL. A light accumulation
of snow of around an inch is possible for Klamath Falls during
Sunday evening. -DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Saturday December 28, 2024....Very high
and steep to very steep hazardous seas reached a peak this
afternoon. But, high and steep seas will continue tonight through
Monday.
Another front will continue south gales tonight, strongest south of
Cape Arago this evening. Behind the front, west to northwest wind
gusts on Sunday morning may approach gale force.
Currently, a period of below advisory conditions is forecast from
Monday evening into Tuesday evening. The next approaching front
could produce another round of south gales and very steep seas late
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Some improvement is likely for the
second half of the week, but persistent steep seas and frequent
episodes of advisory strength winds are likely. -DW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday December 28, 2024...
Heavy, long period swell dominated seas will continue to produce
dangerous surf conditions through tomorrow morning. Large breaking
waves of 22 to 25 feet are expected through early Sunday
morning, with the worst conditions expected this afternoon.
During these events, extremely large breaking waves will create very
hazardous conditions along beaches and area shorelines. Waves will
inundate beaches and surge into normally dry areas, especially at
times of high tide. Infrastructure damage and significant beach
erosion can be expected. Stay away from area beaches during this
period of active weather. -BPN/BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM PST Sat Dec 28 2024/
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and high
elevation snow will continue to impact the region over the next
24-36 hours. A front remains draped over the area and will wobble
northward throughout the day. The focus of precipitation has
shifted north of the OR/CA border, but the heavier rainfall rates
will arrive later this afternoon. The front will then shift north
of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide late this evening and into the
overnight hours before finally getting kicked eastward through the
region Sunday morning with precipitation tapering off late Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Hefty rainfall amounts are expected over the next 24-36 hours along
with another round of strong winds this evening and overnight. The
additional rainfall on already saturated soils will lead to numerous
flooding impacts ranging from standing water in low lying
areas/roadways and area streams reaching or surpassing bankfull to
some mainstem rivers reaching minor or moderate flood stages. A
plethora of flood watches are in effect for this anticipated impact,
and details can be found at water.weather.gov. Additionally, strong
winds are expected this evening as a surface low develops along this
stalled front this evening. This includes most of the East Side
locations as well as the Shasta Valley and the Coast, and details
can be found at NPWMFR. Medford/Redding pressure gradients are
forecast to peak around -8 (GFS) to -10 (NAM), and this tends to
equate to strong winds in the Shasta and Rogue Valleys. This is
likely to be realized in the Shasta Valley, but here in the Rogue
Valley however, the wind direction doesn't quite align with the
terrain which should keep that area sheltered from the strongest
winds.
Snow levels will be fairly high with this event. Our region is
currently bisected by high vs low snow levels with values around
8000 ft south of the OR/CA border and values closer to around 4500
ft from Crater Lake northward. The higher snow levels will spread
northward as the front lifts northward later today, so winter
impacts will be limited to the highest peaks through late tonight.
By early Sunday, however, as the front pushes eastward as a cold
front, snow levels will lower down to around 4500 ft as the bulk
of the precipitation is coming through. This will bring a quick
shot of advisory level snow accumulations to the Cascades Sunday
morning and afternoon. There is about an 80-90% of one inch/hour
rates with the frontal passage through around 1 pm Sunday and
those chances drop off significantly afterward. We've hoisted a
Winter Weather Advisory to cover this, and details can be found at
WSWMFR. Snow levels lower farther to around 3000 ft late Sunday
afternoon and evening, but precipitation will have transitioned to
showers by then so winter impacts should be minor and limited.
Showers will continue into the overnight hours Sunday, then
gradually taper off Monday morning. /BR-y
Long term:
There will be lingering showers early Monday that will mainly be at
the Coast and into Douglas County and into the Cascades. Ridging
will return to the area Monday and remain through Tuesday afternoon.
Even with the few showers Monday, calmer conditions are ahead for
Monday and Tuesday with drier conditions, calmer winds and mild
temperatures. The threat of fog will need to be evaluated those
mornings as forecast soundings are favoring inversions to set up in
the Umpqua Basin and Rogue Valley.
Clearer skies are expected Monday night. This, along with lighter
winds, will allow the air to cool well. Tuesday is forecast to have
the coldest morning of the week with lows in the upper 20s and low
30s across west side valleys and teens east of the Cascades. These
cold temperatures occuring when forecast soundings show inversions
in west side valleys bring a threat of freezing fog Tuesday morning.
This has been added to the forecast grids.
Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Tuesday
with mostly 30s and 40s. Temperatures will be similar Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons before warming slightly above normal Thursday
afternoon. This will bring highs in the 30s and 40s to the 40s and
50s Thursday and Friday.
After the quieter start to the week the next system will come on New
Year's Eve. A trough will reach the PNW Tuesday. Ensembles are in
agreement that the deepest part of this trough will be into
Washington, meaning the impacts will be focused north of the area.
Lighter precipitation amounts are forecast for most locations later
in the work week, although light to moderate rainfall will be
possible at the Curry County coast when the next trough arrives
Friday.
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS...Most areas are toggling between VFR and
MVFR ceilings early this morning, but flight levels vary under
continuing showers moving across northern California and southern
Oregon this morning. Radar indicates most activity is continuing
over and east of the Cascades. Medford has had LIFR ceilings this
morning, but it is forecast to return to MVFR by the afternoon.
Showers will move northward through the morning, spreading back over
southern Oregon, then a wave of moderate to heavy precipitation will
move from west to east tonight into Sunday morning. The heaviest
amounts look to be over Coos Curry, and Douglas counties, making
lower flight levels possible at Roseburg and North Bend. Showers
continue into future TAF periods.
Guidance suggests low level wind shear developing over the area as
active weather continues. Winds at 2000 feet are forecast to be
southerly with speeds of 40 to 50 kts. It will continue the longest
east of the Cascades through the morning. -TAD/Hermansen
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday December 28, 2024....Very
steep and hazardous seas continue in all waters today. Winds have
eased from a front moving over the area, but unsettled conditions
remain. Another front will produce south gales tonight into early
Sunday morning. Conditions start to improve later in the morning,
with steep seas persisting until late Monday afternoon.
Currently, a period of below advisory conditions is forecast from
Monday evening through Tuesday. The next approaching front could
produce another round of south gales and very steep seas late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. -BPN
BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday December 28, 2024...
Heavy, long period swell dominated seas will continue to produce
dangerous surf conditions through tomorrow morning. Large breaking
waves of 22 to 25 feet are expected through early Sunday
morning, with the worst conditions expected this afternoon.
During these events, extremely large breaking waves will create very
hazardous conditions along beaches and area shorelines. Waves will
inundate beaches and surge into normally dry areas, especially at
times of high tide. Infrastructure damage and significant beach
erosion can be expected. Stay away from area beaches during this
period of active weather. -BPN/BR-y
HYDROLOGY...Significant rises on mainstem rivers are expected
tonight into Sunday with additional precipitation amounts of 1 to
3 inches over the West Side valleys and 2 to 4 inches in the
mountains and along the coast, with up to 6 inches of rain in the
Curry coastal ranges. There is currently a Flood Warning in
effect for the Coquille River at Coquille as it is currently
flooding and in a Moderate Flood Stage. Later this afternoon and
into the start of Sunday, the Coquille will fall to Minor Flood
Stage before rising again to the Moderate Flood Stage by Sunday
afternoon, peaking Sunday morning. The Rogue River at Agness is
forecast to reach Minor Flood Stage Sunday afternoon and crest
Sunday evening, and a Flood Watch is in effect for that location.
The second Flood Watch is in effect for Deer Creek at Roseburg is
forecast to reach Minor Flood Stage Sunday morning.
Additionally, heavy rain along with snow melt and already
saturated soils brings a concern for flooding for urban areas
and small streams/creeks during this time. Expect plenty of
standing water on roadways and low lying areas, along with storm
drains and ditches becoming clogged with debris. Please see
FFAMFR and FLWMFR for more information on the Flood hazards.
Conditions will improve early next week as dry period arrives.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ORZ021>026.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022-030-031.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ029>031.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for ORZ027-
028.
CA...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for CAZ080>083.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for CAZ081-085.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
MAS/MAS/MASPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
952 PM PST Sat Dec 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0952 PM Rain 2 SSW Obrien 42.05N 123.71W
12/28/2024 M2.20 Inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
Since midnight.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong south-southwest winds were recorded at Timber Mountain RAWS with a peak speed of 45 mph gusting to 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in California, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1227486.