Strong high pressure over the Copper River Basin contrasting with an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Alaska, coupled with strong northerly flow aloft, supported a prolonged period of strong winds through Thompson Pass from 11/18 to 11/19. The strongest wind gusts were estimated by the Department of Transportation to be around 80 mph through Thompson Pass.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
Strong high pressure over the Copper River Basin contrasting with an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Alaska, coupled with strong northerly flow aloft, supported a prolonged period of strong winds through Thompson Pass from 11/18 to 11/19. The strongest wind gusts were estimated by the Department of Transportation to be around 80 mph through Thompson Pass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 5:34 PM AKST, 10 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 534 PM AKST Sun Nov 17 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The upper level pattern is a little less complex today as the main upper low center has shifted into the Gulf of Alaska. Weak ridging aloft is extending into the Interior from the Seward Peninsula. Cold arctic air can be seen flowing off of the Mainland in satellite imagery as cloud streets and open-celled cumulus over the Gulf of Alaska. Gap winds have been going strong all along the Gulf Coast from Shelikof Strait through Resurrection Bay and to the Copper River Delta. The upcoming forecast will focus on continued gap winds, shifting toward Valdez, colder air, and some blowing snow along the Glenn Highway. Clouds are diminishing across the Southcentral Mainland as drier air impinges on the area which will set the stage for some of the coldest minimum temperatures of the year so far. The coldest spots will be the Willow area and Copper River Basin getting well below zero. However, the Matanuska Valley wind is expected to get going later tonight and continue through early Tuesday, which will keep temperatures from bottoming out wherever the winds are elevated. The arctic air entrenched across the area is the cause for gap winds along the usual spots, but a disturbance dropping southward on Monday will enhance these winds, specifically for the Matanuska Valley and Valdez/Thompson Pass areas. The Mat Valley winds will loft recent low density snowfall and reduce visibility around the Glenn Highway on Monday afternoon/evening. For the Valdez area, slowly increasing winds will have the potential to reach high wind criteria (gusts greater than 75 mph) as conditions become more favorable on Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will slowly decrease in all areas from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday as upper level ridging builds in from the west along with a warmer air mass. MTL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... As snow showers over the eastern Bering, Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and SW Alaska coastline begin to wind down tonight, bitter arctic air will begin to sweep over Southwest Alaska. Additionally, as a weak North Pacific low moves away from the western Aleutians, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build in over the western Bering. This will continue to expand until it reaches SW Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday. Arctic air will flow into the Interior this evening through Tuesday morning with many places in the Interior staying below zero Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to show the coldest air will be during the late Monday evening to the late Tuesday morning hours. This will coincide with a mostly clear sky too. Therefore, Tuesday morning's lows ranging from the middle 20s to the middle teens below zero will be wide spread from Aniak to Lime Village northward. Wind chills ranging from the middle -20s to the middle -30s are expected during this time too in this area. South of this line, including Bethel and Dillingham, lows drop to the single digits above and below zero will be common. A ridge of high pressure moves over the Aleutians this weekend bringing temperatures into the 40s, producing fog and rain showers. This warm air moves over the Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest by Tuesday afternoon quickly rising temperatures into the 20s in the AK Pen, the 30s along the Southwest coast from Goodnews Bay northward and above zero in the Interior. Widespread fog over SW Alaska will be common, too. A brief wave of snow will pass over the northern portions of the forecast area late Tuesday into early Wednesday, though impacts should be minimal. On Wednesday, a narrow but amplified trough on the far western portions of the Bering will slowly crawl eastward, setting up a band of rain and gale-force winds for the far western Aleutians. -BS/DJ && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... By Thursday, a high pressure ridge will be the dominate feature across most of the state, with a north-south oriented axis running through Southwest Alaska. This will bring northerly flow to the southern mainland and southerly flow to the central and western Aleutians. Warmer air aloft is associated with this feature, so we are expecting the cold temperatures from the first half of the week to give way to more moderate temps in both Southwest and Southcentral. The Copper River Basin could be the exception here and stay colder. Tightening pressure gradients could bring moderately strong southerly winds over the western Aleutians and central Bering Sea on Thursday ahead of a North Pacific low that looks to enter the Bering Sea Thursday night. This system will be pushed to the northeast as it moves through the top edge of the amplified ridge. The low should stay in northern Alaska, but there is some model disagreement here about how much it will flatten out the ridge. This will be something to keep an eye on going forward as a couple solutions have this wave bringing its energy south of the Alaska Range on Saturday night and digging through Southcentral. Lighter winds and little precipitation are expected throughout the long term outlook for most of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds should increase overnight and persist through Monday. The biggest question is how strong these winds will get as the core of strongest winds will likely be just west of the airport. Will gusts remain around 25 kt, or could a few reach close to 35 kt at times Monday. &&
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Department of Transportation estimated winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts of 60 to 80 mph peaking between 11/18 and 11/19/24. The Valdez AWOS also reported a peak wind gust to 71 mph 10:34 AM AKST 11/19/24.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1226454.