Damaging Winds in Texas, November 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

- Severe storm liklihood increasing for tonight and Monday morning
  with damaging winds and tornadoes possible.

- Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding tonight into Monday, Flood
  Watch in effect.

- Strong winds late tonight through early afternoon Monday, Wind Advisory
  in effect.

- Turning cooler for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM and MONDAY...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Potential for severe weather...
Very dynamic storm system poised to impact Oklahoma and northern
Texas tonight and Monday. Intense height falls, resulting in very
strong flow throughout the atmosphere, will start sweeping in from
northern Mexico and southwest Texas tonight. Strong surface
cyclogenesis is progd to begin across southwest Texas this
evening, and advance northeastward ahead of the upper low tonight
and Monday. East of the surface low, very strong southerly winds
will draw unseasonably high dewpoints northward into northern
Texas and southern Oklahoma, with dewpoints nearing 70F not out of
the question to cross the Red River late tonight and Monday
morning. This is a concerning trend that yields a higher
probability for surface based instability to exist ahead of the
cold front and associated squall line. With the higher probability
for surface based instability, there is a higher probability for
damaging winds, and tornadoes, to occur ahead of and along the
line of storms overnight through Monday morning.

The line of storms along the front will likely develop late this
evening and within a few hours after midnight across southwest
Texas, then progress north and east over western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma by daybreak. Given the lower level shear
and high magnitude of the ambient flow, there will be a concern
for several damaging wind instances across western north Texas
into southwest Oklahoma overnight. Within a narrow instability
axis that will exist along and just ahead of the squall line, a
few tornadoes may also occur.

Heavy rain and flooding concerns...
Confidence is high for the potential of heavy rain tonight and
Monday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to commence by late this
evening as strong theta-e advection spreads over the region and
height falls/cooling aloft spreads across the region. The highest
rain totals overnight through Monday morning are expected to
extend from western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, north and
east across the western half of Oklahoma. Amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are expected, although higher totals are possible. The Flood
Watch was maintained and Harper county was added.

Cold-core thunderstorm potential northwest Monday...
Latest models do yield surface based instability (although weak)
beneath the upper low as it traverses northwest and north central
Oklahoma late Monday morning through the early afternoon hours. A
few few low-topped supercells appear possible with attendant risk
for efficient funnel production, with low tornado risk.

Strong sustained winds...
As a surface low pressure area intensifies across western
Oklahoma late tonight, strong southerly winds are expected across
much of southwest into central Oklahoma. Wind gusts of 40 to 50
mph are possible at times through Monday morning. Behind the cold
front, strong southwest winds will be possible across western
north Texas and southwest Oklahoma late in the morning into early
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Clearing skies and decreasing winds expected Monday night. After
near record warm low temperatures to start to Monday, the clear
skies and light wind will allow for a much cooler daybreak
Tuesday, but still a few degrees above average for the middle of
November. Northwest winds will increase on Tuesday as lower level
ridge builds in over the region, and with the winds dropping off
with the introduction of cooler and drier air, a freeze appears
likely for Wednesday morning across western portions of Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

The large storm system moving across the northern and central Plains
will brush northern Oklahoma early on Wednesday, with main impact
being an increase in mid-high level clouds and reinforcing the lower
level ridge and gusty northwest winds. By early Thursday, a more
continental and colder airmass will arrive behind this system and
provide for colder temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Within this
time frame, we could see a freeze across northern and western
Oklahoma on Thursday, with a more widespread freeze into central and
southern Oklahoma, and northern Texas on Friday morning. With upper
flow switching back to zonal ahead of another amplifying upper wave,
southerly winds should begin increasing at the surface on Friday and
Saturday, yielding at least a brief return to above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Areas of showers continue over much of Oklahoma and north Texas,
with some embedded thunderstorms expected later tonight. Ceilings
will crash into the IFR range for most sites tonight. A line of
thunderstorms is expected to move through from the west early in the
morning with the potential for damaging wind gusts. A strong low
level jet will result in some transient low level wind shear as well
as gusty surface winds later tonight and through the morning. Low
ceilings will be slow to clear out today generally from west to
east, with the potential for some wraparound low clouds in northwest
Oklahoma this afternoon.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  61  67  45 /  40 100 100   0
Hobart OK         68  54  67  42 /  70 100  70   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  61  70  45 /  40 100  80   0
Gage OK           64  49  60  36 /  20 100  80   0
Ponca City OK     70  59  68  43 /  30 100 100   0
Durant OK         76  62  70  48 /  20  70  90   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ004>031-033>040-044-
     045.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-023>031-035>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14