NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 26, 2:59 PM AKST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 26, 2:59 PM AKST, 3 hours 1 minute before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
.SHORT TERM...The first in the series of lows and warm fronts is
tracking northward across the region through Friday night. The
expected wind shift to the south behind the front is happening
slower/later over the central inner channels today, but still
expect the southerly surge of warm wind to reach the northern
inner channels around midnight. This will cause snow and freezing
rain observed in the Haines and Skagway areas to change to all
rain near sea level followed by a continued warming trend up the
highway through Saturday. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect for Haines and a warning for the upper portion of the
Klondike Highway. Elsewhere, rainfall will have periods of
moderate to heavy rates through the night.
Upper level winds are S-SWLY and directed at the panhandle. This
pattern will continue with smaller jet streaks moving through. As
the surface low weakens over the north central gulf Saturday
morning the plume of moisture will remain connected to the next
system with greatest rates staying over the Yakutat area Saturday.
With this, models are showing a distinct "lull" between waves over
the rest of the region Saturday.
.LONG TERM...For the first part of the long term forecast, we
will start out in the middle of a relative lull for precipitation
with rainfall amounts slowing during the day on Sunday. This will
be ahead of the next wave that looks to move up from the south
bringing the second band of heavy precipitation to the area. This
second band of heavy precipitation looks to impact the southern
panhandle Sunday evening. Some of the heaviest precipitation
totals right now appear to be along the northern panhandle as the
flow direction will favor moisture transport through the Inner
Channels before running into the Coast Mountains. Winds with this
wave could reach High Wind criteria for Sunday. As such, a high
wind watch has been issued for the southern panhandle for when
this wave comes ashore.
After this system for Monday, the active weather looks to continue
as onshore flow provides moisture for the area so rain and some snow
are expected to continue. Temperatures look try and cool down some
from the very warm temperatures experienced earlier in the week as
cold air from the western side of the state tries to move to the
east with the low. This should allow for the return of snow to some
areas that were not seeing snow before. The next impactful system
looks to move into the area Wednesday bringing more rain and wind to
the panhandle. With the cooler temperatures trying to creep back
into the northern panhandle, more areas should see snow. Beyond this,
we look to return to an outflow pattern for the start of the weekend
as high pressure over Interior Alaska starts to shift to the east
and amplifying over the Yukon.
&&
.AVIATION...Wind shear, low clouds, rain, and snow is the name of
the game for this TAF issuance. A front is slowly making its way
northward across the panhandle. Across the north, low VIS will be
removed as the snow transitions to rain for Haines and Skagway
this evening. However, low clouds look to stay around for most
areas in the inner channels. This makes for some bouncy CIGs
across the northern half of the panhandle and relatively
stratiform MVFR to IFR for the southern half. Unfortunately, look
for these conditions to continue to deteriorate through the night
with increased wind shear and 2000 ft winds around 40-50 knots.
Conditions look to improve south to north towards the morning
hours tomorrow before the next wave.
&&
.MARINE...Each new low that tracks northward across the gulf will
have stronger winds. Small craft level winds with the first system
builds to gale force with the second and finally storm force for
late Sunday night into Monday. Strongest winds expected over the
inner channels with these systems is likely to be with the Sunday
night-Monday period where Clarence Strait was increased to gale
force.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ317.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ318.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Saturday for AKZ319.
Strong Wind Saturday morning for AKZ319.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Saturday morning for
AKZ325.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328-330-332.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-
651-652-661>664-672.
&&
SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...NC
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauSpecial weather statement, Jan 26, 3:46 PM AKST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
AKZ325-280100-
City and Borough of Juneau-
Including the city of Juneau
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
...LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN AND RISING FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY...
A warm front will cause precipitation to track into the region
from south to north on Friday. A wind shift out of the south with
increased speeds will allow warming temperatures through the
northern inner channels Friday evening. Meanwhile, snow/freezing
levels will steadily rise. Freezing levels over Juneau will rise
to around 3,000 feet Friday night, then on Sunday, these values
top out at over 4,000 feet.
Rainfall totals over this 4 day period will vary as two or more
surges of moisture move through, but are likely to reach 1-2 inches
each day. Greatest rainfall rates currently expected on Friday
night and Sunday, and Monday.
Rain on significant snowpack currently in place can result in
several impacts:
* Snow will become heavier as it absorbs the rain, making it
more difficult to move.
* Heavier snow may affect susceptible properties and vessels.
* Drainage blocked by snow will cause rainfall runoff and snowmelt
onto streets and ponding.
* Rain on hard-pack snow will become icy.
* Snowmelt from high elevation snow will add to runoff.
The City and Borough of Juneau asks residents to provide
assistance with clearing drains on or near their property to
reduce the risk of flooding. Residents are also asked to please
keep fire hydrants clear and shovel snow off their vessels in the
harbors.
Local avalanche forecasters with CBJ, DOT, and AEL&P are
expecting an increased risk of avalanches in known avalanche
paths through this event. Please refer to those entities for more
information on the risk of avalanches or visit
juneau.org/avalanche.
Stay tuned to updates from the National Weather Service on this
developing pattern change.
AKZ318-319-280100-
Municipality of Skagway-Haines Borough and Klukwan-
Including the cities of Skagway, White Pass, and Haines
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
...LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN AND RISING FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY...
A warm front will cause precipitation to track into the region
from south to north on Friday. A wind shift out of the south with
increased speeds will allow warming temperatures through the
northern inner channels Friday evening into Saturday. Meanwhile,
snow/freezing levels will steadily rise. By Saturday morning
freezing levels over the City of Haines and Skagway will likely
have risen to around 2,000 feet. During Sunday, these values top
out at over 3,000 feet. For this reason, the Highways could see
accumulating snow before the warm up. See the latest winter
statements for more information.
Rainfall totals over this 4 day period will vary as two or more
surges of moisture move through, but are likely to reach 0.5-1
inch on Friday and again Saturday, then around 1.5 inches Sunday
and Monday.
Rain on significant snowpack currently in place can result in
several impacts:
* Snow will become heavier as it absorbs the rain, making it
more difficult to move.
* Heavier snow may affect susceptible properties and vessels.
* Drainage blocked by snow will cause rainfall runoff and snowmelt
onto streets and ponding.
* Rain on hard-pack snow will become icy.
* Snowmelt from high elevation snow will add to runoff.
Please consider your personal property and neighborhood drainage
before the onset of heavy rain. Stay tuned to updates from the
National Weather Service on this developing pattern change.
AKZ320-321-280100-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, and Tenakee Springs
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
...LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN AND RISING FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY...
A warm front will cause precipitation to track into the region
from south to north on Friday. A wind shift out of the south with
increased speeds will allow warming temperatures through the inner
channels Friday. Meanwhile, snow/freezing levels will steadily
rise. Freezing levels over Hoonah and Gustavus will likely rise to
around 3,000 feet Friday night, then during Sunday, these values
top out at over 4,000 feet.
Rainfall totals over this 4 day period will vary as two or more
surges of moisture move through, but are likely to reach 0.5-1
inch on Friday and again Saturday, then 1-1.5 inches Sunday and
Monday.
Rain on significant snowpack currently in place can result in
several impacts:
* Snow will become heavier as it absorbs the rain, making it
more difficult to move.
* Heavier snow may affect susceptible properties and vessels.
* Drainage blocked by snow will cause rainfall runoff and snowmelt
onto streets and ponding.
* Rain on hard-pack snow will become icy.
* Snowmelt from high elevation snow will add to runoff.
Please consider your personal property and neighborhood drainage
before the onset of heavy rain. Stay tuned to updates from the
National Weather Service on this developing pattern change.
AKZ317-322>324-326-327-329-331-280100-
City and Borough of Yakutat-Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-
City and Borough of Sitka-Admiralty Island-Petersburg Borough-
Western Kupreanof Island and Kuiu Island-
City and Borough of Wrangell-City of Hyder-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka,
Angoon, Petersburg, Kake, Port Alexander, Wrangell, and Hyder
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
...LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN AND RISING FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY...
A warm front will cause precipitation to track into the region
from south to north on Friday. Winds out of the south with
increased speeds will allow warming temperatures through the inner
channels Friday. Meanwhile, snow/freezing levels will steadily
rise. Freezing levels over Yakutat will reach 2,000 to 3,000 feet
while the Petersburg to Sitka area tops out at over 5,000 feet
Sunday.
Rainfall totals over this 4 day period will vary as two or more
surges of moisture move through, but are likely to reach 0.5-1.5
inches on Friday and again Saturday, then 1-2 inches Sunday and
Monday. Some strong wind gusts of around 40 mph may accompany the
surges of moisture, particularly along the outer coast.
AKZ328-330-332-280100-
Prince of Wales Island-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove,
Thorne Bay, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
346 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
...LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY...
A warm front will cause precipitation to track into the region
from south to north early Friday. Winds out of the south with
increased speeds will allow warming temperatures through the inner
channels Friday.
Rainfall totals over this 4 day period will vary as two or more
surges of moisture move through, but are likely to reach 1-2
inches each day. Greatest expected rainfall totals are expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with upwards of up to 2.5 inches
likely.