A North Pacific low pushed a front across the Alaska Peninsula on the evening of January 12. The resulting southeasterly gap flow led to a prolonged period of several hours during which high wind gusts were observed in Cold Bay.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A North Pacific low pushed a front across the Alaska Peninsula on the evening of January 12. The resulting southeasterly gap flow led to a prolonged period of several hours during which high wind gusts were observed in Cold Bay. The low tracked across the eastern Bering Sea on January 13, pushing into the Kuskokwim Delta that evening. Northwesterly flow brought in cold air behind the low as it continued north, which led to gusty winds and blowing snow on Nunivak Island and along the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 4:35 PM AKST, 10 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 435 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A relatively quiet but still somewhat unsettled pattern is expected to continue over the coming weekend. An old and deteriorating, shallow front is still draped out over the central Gulf this evening as it slowly drifts underneath the very amplified upper ridge still extending from the Gulf all the way north to the Beaufort Sea. Areas of light snow will continue to follow this front into the eastern coast of the Kenai Peninsula out to the Prince William Sound at times as the front and southeasterly winds ahead of it steadily weaken overnight. Meanwhile, most of the Southcentral interior will stay mostly dry, with even some breaks in the cloud cover likely towards Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. Looking farther into the weekend, the next feature of interest will be directly tied to the strong low currently organizing south of the Aleutians. This low's occluding front will lift northeast into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island as the main area of low pressure also lifts north into Southwest on Saturday. This will help strengthen the ridge axis out ahead of it still extending from the Gulf into Southcentral as lower pressure begins to encroach into the western Gulf, resulting in a strengthening east to west gradient and another round of increasing east to southeast winds developing over the northern/western Gulf, across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and along Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, a shield of precipitation following ahead of the front will work northeast with time. Low level temperatures will be warm enough for Kodiak to see all rain as the boundary moves past on Saturday morning, but most areas away from the immediate coastline should be cold enough for snow to start out as precipitation resumes between the western Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound region between Saturday morning and Saturday evening. Southeasterly flow should be strong enough to keep most of the eastern Kenai Peninsula up into much of the Mat-Su Valleys dry due to downslope drying, but it's looking more likely for a short burst of light snow to move up the Cook Inlet early on Sunday as the front lifts past and as southeasterly winds shut off. Overall this still does not look like an impressive event, with generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new snowfall possible as this wave moves past between the western Kenai Peninsula and Mat Valley on Sunday morning. Looking towards the tail end of the holiday weekend, forecast uncertainty once again picks up in magnitude. A secondary trough trailing behind the low that should be moving up into western Alaska by Sunday will move up the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday, turning more towards the east as it reaches Southcentral on Sunday night. Models vary in terms of how quickly this shortwave will traverse the region from west to east, resulting in decreasing forecast confidence through Monday. At this point, it does look likely the middle to lower levels will be fairly dry as the trough axis moves past, casting doubt on any additional snowfall potential continuing west of the Prince William Sound and Chugach Range through Sunday night. Regardless, expect slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions to return area-wide later on Monday as the shortwave continues east towards the AlCan border and Yukon and as a new upper level ridge builds back into place from the west. - AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... Active weather continues for southwest Alaska and the Aleutian chain as a deepening low pressure system moves northward from south of the eastern Aleutians into the eastern Bering Sea. Rain (and some snow) has already spread across much of the eastern Aleutians through the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and north through the Kuskokwim Delta along the effective warm front. As of 3PM, temperatures have warmed to above freezing throughout much of southwest Alaska, though spots in the Ahklun Mountains and Nunivak Island have remained below freezing. Continued warm advection will bring the temp above 32F for Nunivak Island by this evening and for much of the lower elevations around the Ahkluns. The primary forecast concern with this system is the combination of high wind and a changeover back to snow on the backside of the low as it shifts northward across the eastern Aleutians. A High Wind Warning is in effect tonight into tomorrow morning, primarily for the Dutch Harbor / Unalaska region, as well as Nikolski. High wind will first arrive in Nikolski this evening, with intensity picking up across Dutch Harbor later in the night. The majority of the islands will receive rain through the night before a transition to a wet snow, near 32F, on Saturday morning. Snow may have trouble accumulating, but where it does, approximately 2-4 inches is the most likely scenario through tomorrow. The strongest of winds should subside by around 9AM, or when the high wind warning is set to expire. Similarly, snowfall paired with a strong northerly wind is also expected for the Pribilof Islands. With snow/blowing snow more of a concern than wind for the islands, a winter weather advisory has been issued rather than a high wind warning as mentioned above for the eastern Aleutians. The effective warm front / trough rotating about the north side of the low will rotate to near the Pribilof Islands, with the axis remaining just off to the east. This will maintain cold air and snow as the dominant p-type. North/Northwesterly winds will increase overnight, gusting to around 60 mph at times. Snowfall will generally be in the 2-4 inch range, but models continue to indicate quite the precip gradient in this area. Should the trough be closer, more snow would fall than forecast... and vice versa should the trough remain farther east. In any case, high wind paired with snow will yield a reduction in visibility tonight and through the morning. Conditions will improve for the eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and the Pribilof Islands during the day on Saturday as the low heads towards the mouth of the Kuskokwim Delta, weakening as it does so. The primary concern at this point is for elevated water levels for the Kuskokwim Bay Coast and the northern Bristol Bay coast. Periods of strong southerly winds combined with astronomically high tides may cause water levels to rise above normal highest tide. While higher than normal water levels are possible, it seems unlikely that water levels would get high enough to cause flooding in coastal communities. The most likely communities to see higher than normal water levels include Kwigillingok and Kongiganak (on Kuskokwim Bay) and Togiak (on Bristol Bay). Colder air will follow behind this low late Saturday and Sunday as it lifts north through western Alaska. The next weathermaker will be a low moving east from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the attendant front as it moves northeast through the Bering. Storm force (>48kt) winds are the primary concern with this front, but the primarily belt of stronger wind looks to remain west of Adak. The front will extend south through western and central Aleutians before diffusing as the parent low shifts away and another system begins to approach from the southwest. -Brown && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... An upper level high moves into the Central Bering and expands across most of Interior Alaska through the forecast period. The strength and extent of this high suggests the beginning of a blocking high which lasts beyond the end of the weekend. Model confidence is good with the greatest variance between models along the Canadian border. A series of lows slide across the Arctic before diving Southward over the Alaska-Canadian border for Thursday. This sets up a closed low center over the Southern Gulf Thursday into the weekend. Weather becomes relatively quiet, with the exceptions of gusty winds over the Western Bering, diminishing for Thursday. Areas of outflow winds develop along the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral Coasts, with gale force gap winds through the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait and along the Alaska Peninsula Coast into the Eastern Aleutians developing for Thursday and diminishing Friday. Interior Alaska may see Bora- type winds, bringing cold air with the gusty winds to much of Southcentral. Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. &&
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK 1107 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024 AKZ155-161-131400- Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay- Including the cities of Bethel, Nunivak Island, King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point 1107 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM BAY COAST AND NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST... Periods of strong southerly winds combined with astronomically high tides may cause water levels to rise above normal highest tide. While higher than normal water levels are possible, it seems unlikely that water levels would get high enough to cause flooding in coastal communities. The most likely communities to see higher than normal water levels include Kwigillingok and Kongiganak (on Kuskokwim Bay) and Togiak (on Bristol Bay). AKZ181-131400- Alaska Peninsula- Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point 1107 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... A storm system over the Pacific will pass across the eastern Aleutians tonight, bringing rain and southerly winds gusting 45 to 60 mph. As the low continues into the eastern Bering Sea on Saturday, winds will shift to westerly and rain will change to snow. The combination of westerly winds gusting 40 to 55 mph combined with falling snow will reduce visibility to less than one mile at times. The worst conditions will be along the Bering Sea coast, including Cold Bay.
1 high wind, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The Cold Bay ASOS recorded several hours during which winds gusted in excess of 65 knots (75 mph) from around 4 pm through 11 pm January 12. Wind gusts measured as strong as 76 knots (88 mph). Wind gusts elsewhere along the Alaska Peninsula were generally measured 40 knots (46 mph) or less during the same time period.
Blowing snow led to half mile visibility recorded at the Mekoryuk AWOS from 8:15 pm January 13 through 12:50 am January 14. Winds gusted as high as 44 knots (51 mph) during this period. Visibility improved through the morning hours of January 14 as snow intensity decreased with the low exiting into the Yukon Delta.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158247, 1158248.