A strong ridge of high pressure in place over Northern Canada and extending into mainland Alaska worked in tandem with a deep upper trough over the Bering Sea to draw moisture north along an atmospheric river that remained in place across the Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska from February 14th through February 16th. A series of shortwave troughs driving northward led to several rounds…
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A strong ridge of high pressure in place over Northern Canada and extending into mainland Alaska worked in tandem with a deep upper trough over the Bering Sea to draw moisture north along an atmospheric river that remained in place across the Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska from February 14th through February 16th. A series of shortwave troughs driving northward led to several rounds of heavy precipitation for the area. There were two main shortwaves - the first brought snow to the south side of the Alaska Peninsula beginning early on Feb 14, pushing north into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta, and westward along the Alaska Peninsula through the day. The second arrived during the afternoon/evening of Feb 15, bringing warmer air and reinforced heavier precipitation.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 5:27 AM AKST, 8 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 527 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... Southcentral is, and will remain trapped between the large upper level ridge that is centered over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, and the large, upper level trough in the Bering Sea. This strong southerly flow will continue to pump warm air from the tropical Pacific into Southcentral Alaska for a few more days. This means that, while details will change some, the overall pattern will not. The overall pattern will keep stiff southeasterly winds along the mountains through Thursday. The details are that the strongest winds will be along the Anchorage Hillside today where there remains a High Wind Warning into this evening. These winds will diminish this evening, but not shut off. Temperatures will likely be warmest today, but will remain well above normal for just about all of Southcentral through the remainder of the week. In fact, Anchorage has already tied its record high for the day at 42 degrees as of 4 AM this morning. The other big area of interest is around Kodiak Island where rain and strong winds will persist through the day. The rain should taper off tonight as the front finally edges west of the Island, but another wave will move in by Wednesday night and bring more moderate-to-heavy rain to the eastern half of the Island. Winds will follow this same timing, with winds diminishing some tonight into Wednesday, and then increasing again Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... While a satellite low pressure system dissipates over Bristol Bay early this morning, a stronger low pressure system will move in from the northern Pacific this morning. This will allow for the steady stream of moisture moving into Southwest Alaska, and across the Alaska Peninsula, to continue into at least Thursday this week. Gusty winds across Southwest, driven by the low pressure systems over marine Bristol Bay, will be strongest later this morning and begin to slowly taper down, however not dissipating entirely, through Wednesday afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible in places between Igiugig and Lime Village later this morning. By Thursday, a slightly weaker resurgence of winds through the Kamishak Gap to Lake Iliamna area is expected, with winds to reach 50 mph. Temperatures early this morning are warmer than previously expected, however a return towards cooler temperatures is expected to begin by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As previously mentioned, a long duration precipitation event for the Alaska Peninsula and southern Bristol Bay continues through Thursday night. Water equivalent precipitation amounts of 0.55 to 2.5 inches are possible. Through midweek, the types of precipitation forecast across Southwest Alaska are as follows: snow for The Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley; rain for the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula; and lastly a rain/snow mix for Bristol Bay and the northern Alaska Peninsula. The aforementioned areas of rain/snow mix will see higher precipitation totals than other Southwest Alaska regions due to the orientation of the moisture feed. Contingent upon the duration of snowfall and the ability for snowfall to persist at or near freezing, Dillingham, Togiak, Pilot Point, and Port Heiden are likely to see 4-8 inches of new snowfall through Thursday morning. The rest of the Bering and Aleutians remain fairly benign, with the Western Aleutians seeing some on-and-off again showers today and Thursday. Temperatures in this area are to remain at or near freezing as well; however, due to the lack of significant incoming moisture, little impact is anticipated. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday night through Saturday)... The long term begins with a stagnant upper-level ridge / trough pattern east to west across the state. A 560dm ridge anchored over the St. Elias Mountains Wednesday drifts northeast over the Yukon for Friday before weakening and elongating as it continues a slow push to the southeast over British Columbia. The broad trough over the Bering and Aleutians also remains in place through the end of the week. The result is a general west to southwesterly flow in the mid levels across the southern Bering and Aleutians shifting to a southerly flow from the western Gulf and Alaska Peninsula north along the west coast of Alaska. Various shortwaves embedded in the flow, along with a strong upper-level jet, are resulting in a seemingly continuous parade of surface lows and troughs moving from the North Pacific toward the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak, eventually moving farther north to the Bering Strait. This storm track favors periods of heavy precipitation, in the form of low elevation rain and mountain snow, from Kodiak Island to the Alaska Peninsula and along the south-facing hills and mountains of Southwest Alaska, due to upsloping. With multiple surface lows tracking north across the Alaska Peninsula, strong southeasterly gap winds and mountaintop winds are also likely, with the strongest of the gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula and through Kamishak Gap into the interior Bristol Bay region. The southeasterly flow will also promote periods of showers across the Kenai Mountains along with strong southeasterly gap winds, mainly through Turnagain Arm and across the Matanuska Valley. The greatest uncertainty comes closer to the weekend, as models try to weaken the ridge at differing times with the weaker, more easterly positioned ridge and upstream trough becoming more negatively tilted. This scenario would likely allow for storm systems to move farther north into the Gulf of Alaska with steadier precipitation moving toward the Southcentral coast. -TM && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday as high pressure continues to build into Southcentral from the east. Southeast winds across PANC, however, will remain gusty through this afternoon and evening before a pressure gradient across the region finally relaxes. The biggest uncertainty in the forecast involves the timing of Turnagain Arm winds becoming down inlet and subsequently replaced with lighter northerly, currently forecast over PANC by early Wednesday morning. -BL &&
4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The Toksook Bay AWOS recorded 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility in blowing snow with 20 to 27 mph sustained winds between 10 AM and 3 PM AKST 2/13. Low visibility was also showing up on area webcams along the rest of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast during this time, including near Kipnuk.
NWS Anchorage called out to several communities across Bristol Bay after and during the heavy snowfall event. The Togiak city office estimated up to 2 feet of snow fell in a little over a day between 12 PM 2/14 and 1 PM 2/15, resulting in a hour long delay in starting school the morning of 2/15. The Dillingham police department estimated a total of 4 to 8 inches had fallen ending at 3 PM AKST on 2/14, and the office was advising their employees to go home early due to the heavy snow ongoing at the time. The Port Heiden city office estimated about 6 to 7 inches of new snowfall since yesterday at 1 PM 2/15.
NWS Anchorage called out multiple times to the Chignik city office to get an estimate of total snowfall they received. They reported a 9 inch storm total snowfall between February 13th and 2:30 PM AKST February 14th. Upon follow up on the morning of February 15th, the office estimated about a foot of new snowfall had fallen the previous day, in addition to about another foot overnight through 11 AM AKST February 15th. Area webcams also showed persistent falling snow and reduced visibility for much of this time period.
The Nelson Lagoon AWOS recorded visibility 1/2 mile or less with 25 to 30 mph sustained winds in snow/blowing snow from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM AKST February 14th. A radio station in Sand Point also reported 3 inches of new snowfall through 1 PM February 15th and significant drifting of snow due to strong winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1165481, 1165516, 1165512, 1165518.