Strong Wind in Alabama, September 12, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
919 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 919 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Initial rain bands continue to lift rapidly northward this morning
as TD Francine moves northward through central MS. Temperatures
have dipped into the lower to middle 60s due to the rain, with
gust east flow developing. So, it may not feel too tropical out
there today. Have lowered the max temps by 1-2 degrees. Gusts
have reached 25-30 mph and should see gusts approaching 40 mph
later today, especially in the rain bands.

Not a whole lot of change in thinking from the going forecast and
messaging. We will monitor progress of the dry slot and see if
any heating can occur in central AL that pokes into our southeast
counties late this afternoon. At this point, the surface based
CAPE is relegated to far south AL at this hour, so it has a ways
to go. If so, the chance of mini-supercells and attendant tornado
threat may increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

A prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall event may begin to take
shape tonight, Friday, and Friday night as multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Storm Francine are forecast during this timeframe. As mentioned
above, convective-driven bands of enhanced rainfall will begin to
generate across portions of central and northern Alabama, and
into portions of middle Tennessee this evening and overnight.
Multiple Hi-Res models show a persistent signal for these
mesoscale-driven, heavy rainfall bands to set up across across
portions of area this evening and tonight and then again later
during the day on Friday and Friday night. This would include
potentially the I-65 corridor and the BHM and HSV metros.

Within these bands, localized rainfall amounts will be higher
than the broad 3" to 6" storm total rainfall advertised across the
area and could exceed 7" to 10+" (locally) given the very moist,
tropical environment and a favorable environment for re-generation
of these bands. More concerning, some of the heaviest rainfall
during this event may fall during the overnight hours tonight --
when flash flooding is particularly dangerous. For this reason,
WPC has increased the D1 ERO to a Moderate Risk (at least 40%
chance of exceed FFG within 25 miles of a point) over portions of
central/northern Alabama -- with a Slight Risks (at least a 15%
chance of exceed FFG within 25 miles of a point) for both Friday
and Saturday. We have a issued a Flood Watch through 7 AM
Saturday to address this and Storm total QPF continues to creep
upward as a result of increase confidence in a flash flooding
threat developing tonight and continuing later on Friday and
Friday night.

In addition to the rainfall/flooding concerns, we will continue
the shear profile and environmental parameters will support a
limited tornado threat with low top supercells again on Friday and
a D2 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) has been issued by SPC to address
this.

A blocking ridge to the north will keep the remnants of Francine
meandering across the Mid South and Ohio Valley this weekend and
subsequently medium to high (50-80%) remain in the forecast on
Saturday and medium chances (40-60%) on Sunday. Guidance continues
to hint that some additional bands of precipitation may regenerate
in this still moist, tropical environment, especially during the
afternoon and for that reason a localized flash flooding threat
may persist into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The remnants of Francine will meander across the Deep South on
Monday as an open wave, with low-medium (30-40%) rain chances in
the forecast once again. However, by Tuesday/Wednesday a ridge to
the west over Texas will finally begin to build into the region,
helping us to finally dry out. After several days of cloud cover
and highs in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s, a gradual warming
trend will push us into the mid to upper 80s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The remnants of Francine will continue to impact the Tennessee
Valley over the next 24 hours, bringing periods of SHRA, gusty
winds out of the east to ESE between 20-35 kts -- especially this
afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. A Wind Advisory
is in effect until 7 AM Friday morning. Additionally, ceilings
will drop to MVFR to IFR levels at times after 18z, especially
this afternoon and evening, with visibilities lowering to between
2-4 SM. Amendments may be needed during the daytime and evening
hours and AWWs from -TSRA may be needed (should they develop).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ALZ001>010-016.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TNZ076-096-097.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1041 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Cherokee                34.76N 87.97W
09/12/2024                   Colbert            AL   911 Call Center

            Tree reported down near 245 Main St. in
            Cherokee.

&&

GH