High Wind in Wyoming, March 2 to 3, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1040 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023

MAIN POINTS:
*High Winds this afternoon to mid-Friday morning. Westerly wind
gusts 55 to 65 mph possible.

*Additional light snow showers beginning early Friday morning,
ending early Saturday morning. Overall snow accumulations 0-2
inches likely outside of the mountains. 4 to 7 inches likely in
the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountains.

*Brief period of another wave of high winds possible Friday
evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION: Strong winds in the wind-prone areas of southeast
Wyoming are the primary concern for the short-term forecast period.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for areas near Arlington/Elk
Mountain from 11 AM Thursday to 8 AM Friday for westerly wind gusts
up to 65 mph. Overall internal guidance has come down slightly,
likely due to GFS showing slightly weaker subsidence in the area.
Expanded the High Wind Watch to include Bordeaux and the South
Laramie Range. Decided to keep them a Watch instead of going to
Warning due to a lack of confidence. HiRes guidance pings Bordeaux
potentially hitting earlier, between 11 AM and 8 PM Thursday, with
the South Laramie Range and Foothills hitting later, after 11 PM
Thursday. This is because as the front moves through, winds at the
surface turn northwesterly, which is not the most favorable
orientation for Bordeaux.

Beginning early Friday morning, the next wave of snow showers move
across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Overall
accumulations are in the 0-2 inch range, with the mountains
receiving 4-7 inches. Most areas at lower elevations have very low
probabilities of receiving over 2 inches, however there is a
possibility of heavier banded snowfall, which may result in some
areas, specifically those near the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge to
receive localized greater amounts. In addition, RAP13 is showing 100-
200 J/kg of MUCAPE across portions of southeast Wyoming and the
Nebraska panhandle, which is enough instability to support snow
squalls.

Friday evening, NBMv4.1 is picking up on another potential wave of
High Winds, likely confined to the wind-prone areas. Arlington/Elk
Mountain area has a 50-60% chance of wind gusts greater than 48
knots. Bordeaux area is showing a 60-80% chance of wind gusts
greater than 48 knots. The South Laramie Range and Foothills area is
showing a 40-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 48 knots. Opted
not to issue headlines due to current High Wind Headlines out, but
will continue to monitor the forecast to see if High Wind Warnings
will be necessary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Friday)

Key Impact Messages:

1) While specific details can't be pinned down at this time, the
extended looks to be a possible "gauntlet" of winter precipitation
activity to what has already been a impactful winter.

2) At least isolated to scattered snow showers (or more) coverage
looks probable starting the weekend and continuing all the way
through end of next week. Higher snowfall rates/impacts could be
Tuesday-Thursday depending on pattern evolution.

3) At least 10 to 15 degrees below normal temperatures are
likely/expected after Sunday through the remainder of the week.

Weather Discussion: Multi-model ensemble guidance indicates jet
stream positioning late weekend into next week will be over to just
south of WY/NE - setting up an active pattern promoting above normal
precipitation across the region. Run to run inconsistencies of H5
vorticity maxima and associated shortwave to longwave progressions
preclude pinpointing resultant impacts to any specific time period
but the overall pattern highlights at least low to moderate
precipitation chances Sunday through all of next week with
diffluence aloft and persistent upslope flow in the lower levels.
NBM output across numerous locations of SE WY and West Nebraska
indicate a possibility of light snow occurring in almost each 6 hour
forecast period from Sunday to next Friday. There will still be
nuanced locations that don't receive snow the entire period across
the High Plains or due to shadowing effects in the mountain valleys.

Depending on scenarios and lifting/forcing mechanisms next week, it
could be a light, slow, and steady accumulation that could reduce
overall impacts or there could be a period from Tuesday to Thursday
where a more concentrated longwave trough assists in higher snowfall
rates leading to higher totals and higher impacts. Probabilistic
WSSI indicates higher chances of winter impacts in the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe as well. WPC is also highlighting the Tuesday to
Wednesday period for greatest precipitation amounts. None-the-less,
there remains a wide spread in ensemble QPF and resultant snowfall
amounts. GFS ensembles alone range from 1-12" of snow for certain
locations with more for the mountains. One aspect that may limit
snow amounts is the slightly limited PWAT values with near normal to
slightly negative anomalies. However, there is confidence in at
least the lower to middle solutions playing out and snow will be
probable during many days next week. How fast and time concentrated
it falls will determine what headlines, may be needed.

If there is any good news it is that winds appear to remain
relatively low during this period other then Sunday. The easterly
upslope flow regime and lighter pressure gradients west should keep
high winds at bay. Elevated winds could still be possible for some
localized blowing snow issues, however. Temperatures will become
colder after Sunday following a cold front into Monday morning.
Temperatures will slightly moderate mid-week but still remain below
normal by 10-15 degrees with cold favored into next weekend.
Confidence is at least medium in the cold as certain models indicate
-2 to -4 standard deviations below normal for central and west WY
mid-week. Stay tuned through the weekend on how it shapes up for
more possible winter/travel impacts. Much to keep track of, there is.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023

Low stratus has mostly burned off this morning, leaving VFR
conditions at all terminals. Gusty winds are expected throughout the
TAF period for KRWL. An incoming front late tonight may also bring
low CIGs and scattered showers to KRWL. Cannot rule out reduced
visibility in showers. Scattered showers will be possible across
other terminals Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023

Minimal fire weather concerns expected in the next seven days.
While there are periods of gusty to strong winds expected,
relative humidity values remain above normal due to cool
temperatures and widespread snowfall potential.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch through Friday morning for WYZ106.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Friday for WYZ110.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday morning for
     WYZ116-117.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LK
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...LK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
800 AM MST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             2 ENE CHEYENNE          41.16N 104.76W
03/02/2023  M0.5 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-82 CHEYENNE 2.0 ENE.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 NNW NORTH CHEYENNE    41.27N 104.82W
03/02/2023  M0.1 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-24 CHEYENNE 8.9 N.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NNW NORTH CHEYENNE    41.30N 104.83W
03/02/2023  M0.4 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-112 CHEYENNE 10.7 N.

0620 AM     SNOW             6 NE ARLINGTON          41.66N 106.13W
03/02/2023  M0.3 INCH        CARBON             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-CR-5 ROCK RIVER 9.6 WSW.

0700 AM     SNOW             ELK MOUNTAIN            41.68N 106.42W
03/02/2023  M0.7 INCH        CARBON             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-CR-18 ELK MOUNTAIN 0.3
            SW.

0645 AM     SNOW             1 NNE LARAMIE           41.33N 105.57W
03/02/2023  M0.1 INCH        ALBANY             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-AB-186 LARAMIE 1.2 NNE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
950 AM MST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SSW FEDERAL           41.21N 105.13W
03/02/2023  M0.3 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-226 CHEYENNE 18.2
            WNW.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 S NORTH CHEYENNE      41.20N 104.79W
03/02/2023  M0.4 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-164 CHEYENNE 4.0 N.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 ESE WARREN AF BASE    41.14N 104.84W
03/02/2023  M0.6 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-93 CHEYENNE 2.3 W.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 NNE CHEYENNE          41.17N 104.77W
03/02/2023  M0.5 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-111 CHEYENNE 2.2 NNE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSE LARAMIE           41.30N 105.57W
03/02/2023  M0.1 INCH        ALBANY             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-AB-5 LARAMIE 1.3 SE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW CENTENNIAL         41.31N 106.13W
03/02/2023  M0.9 INCH        ALBANY             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-AB-108 CENTENNIAL 1.1
            NNE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSE LARAMIE           41.30N 105.57W
03/02/2023  M0.1 INCH        ALBANY             WY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ADFW4 LARAMIE 1 SE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 E CHEYENNE            41.14N 104.75W
03/02/2023  M1.0 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-36 CHEYENNE 2.0 E.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 NE CHEYENNE           41.17N 104.76W
03/02/2023  M1.0 INCH        LARAMIE            WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-LM-193 CHEYENNE 2.6 NE.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 ESE LARAMIE           41.29N 105.54W
03/02/2023  M0.1 INCH        ALBANY             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WY-AB-171 LARAMIE 2.5 ESE.

&&