Lightning Strikes in North Carolina, March 2, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
359 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front over central NC will become reinforced by
convective outflow this morning and settle southeast across
southeastern NC and northern SC today, then stall there tonight.
Meanwhile, a separate cold front will approach from the northwest
and settle south across VA this evening and central NC tonight, then
merge with the lead front over SC early Friday. The merged front
will then retreat slowly north across the Carolinas later Friday and
Friday evening, while meeting resistance by cold air damming high
pressure and stability that will be in place across the mid
Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Thursday...

Seasonably strong, quasi-zonal mid/upr-level flow will extend from
the mid MS Valley to the mid Atlantic today. Embedded within that
belt of mid-latitude west-southwesterlies, an MCV now centered along
the srn border of NC/TN will track generally enewd across n-cntl and
nern NC through 12-15Z, during which time a 40-60 kt wswly low level
jet evident in 06Z RAOBS and regional VWP data from cntl AL/GA and
the w-cntl Carolinas will overspread the cntl and ern Carolinas.
Meanwhile, a vigorous, closed mid/upr-level cyclone now over swrn AZ
will move east and reach the srn High Plains by 00Z Fri, then lift
northeast to wrn AR by 12Z Fri, with preceding shortwave ridging
that will amplify from the Carolinas to the OH Valley overnight.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was analyzed at 08Z from
nern NC swwd to the srn NC Piedmont, wwd across swrn NC and sern TN,
then swwd as a cold front across nrn AL, cntl MS, and srn AR. Mixed
character stratiform rain and embedded, elevated convection now
overspreading cntl NC will diabatically-strengthen/reinforce that
front and cause it to settle southeast across southeastern NC and
northern SC today, where it will stall tonight. Meanwhile, the ern
portion of a separate front analyzed from nwrn PA swwd through the
lwr OH Valley and mid-South will move east of the cntl Appalachians
and then swd, in back-door fashion, through VA/NC tonight. It will
then merge with the lead front across nrn SC through early Friday,
with following high pressure and cool/stable air related to a cold
air damming airmass that will ridge south across the srn mid
Atlantic.

The approach of the MCV; preceding strong moisture transport along
the axis of the low level jet; and convergence and isentropic
upglide as it that llj jet intersects the quasi-stationary surface
front draped across cntl NC, will maintain the aforementioned shield
of rain and embedded, elevated convection along and on the
immediate cool side of the front this morning (roughly the nwrn half
to two thirds of the RAH CWA). The elevated convection, fueled by
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE atop stable air at the surface, will then
move east and out of cntl NC between 12-15Z, as the low level jet
moves offshore and trailing flow veers to wnwly. Considerable
mid/high-level cloudiness will remain throughout cntl NC all day,
with occasional, light stratiform rain/sprinkles from cloud bases at
and above 8-10 thousand ft AGL, across the srn tier of RAH counties.
Given the passage of the lead/effective cold front this morning,
then the considerable mid/high clouds throughout the day, high
temperatures have been decreased from the previous forecast and are
expected to range from upr 60s across the nrn Piedmont to low-mid 70s
across the srn tier.

The low level flow will back to sly overnight and rise
isentropically atop the reinforcing cool, stable air that will
accompany the passing backdoor cold front overnight-Fri morning,
such that light rain will redevelop and focus over the
climatologically-favored Piedmont damming region late. CAA-driven
temperatures are expected to range from upr 40s across the VA border
counties to 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

A potent upper low will lift north-northeast from the ARKLATEX Fri
morning, through the MS Valley during the day and through the Great
Lakes Fri night. At the surface, the low will similarly lift from
the ARKLATEX, thought the MS Valley and Great Lakes Fri/Fri night.
High pressure centered over southern Quebec Fri morning will ridge
southward through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. A backdoor cold
front will try to progress southward into central NC Fri morning,
but if and how far are still in question. Regardless, a warm front
will lift northward through the area Fri aft as the cold front
approaches from the west. As the parent low lifts northward through
the OH Valley it will begin to occlude, with a secondary low
developing near the triple point over the southern mid-Atlantic Fri
evening. The cold front should subsequently push through central NC
late Fri eve/early Fri night, although shift to more northwesterly
winds and CAA may be delayed until Sat.

Precipitation: There will likely be continued rain Fri morning due
to isentropic lift, highest chances and amounts along the NC/VA
border. There could be lull in precipitation activity Fri afternoon
across the south/southeast before the primary line of pre-frontal
convection moves into and through the area Fri eve. There is still a
slight chance for thunder with the convection, however instability
remains the limiting factor.

Temperatures: Tricky temperature forecast with a decent bust
potential and a potentially wide range from N to S. For now expect
highs in the upper 50s/low 60s north to low/mid 70s south. Lows Fri
night ranging from low 50s NW to low 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Saturday through Monday: In the wake of the cold front, the weather
should largely be dry through Mon. A reinforcing dry cold front
should move through central NC on Sat. Cool high pressure moving
through the OH Valley will ridge southward through the mid-Atlantic
through Sun night, then shift off the Southeast US coast on Mon.
Temperatures will remain above, to well above average. Highs will
generally range from mid 60s to mid 70s, while lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s are expected.

Monday night through Wednesday: A warm front will lift northward
through the area Mon night as a surface low moves eastward through
the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes then into the Northeast/northern mid-
Atlantic. The low should swing eastward and out over the Atlantic on
Tue, with the trailing cold front sinking south through the mid-
Atlantic Tue eve/night. The best chance for rain will be Mon night
into Tue ahead of the cold front. Expect well above average
temperatures to persist through Tue night, before dropping back near
normal on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Mixed character stratiform rain and scattered convection
(showers/storms) will develop and overspread cntl NC through ~12-
14Z, as will accompanying IFR-MVFR restrictions. Marginal low level
wind shear conditions will also be possible, especially at FAY and
RDU, as a sswly low level jet strengthens and streams across
southern and eastern NC this morning. While occasional MVFR ceilings
may linger at RWI and FAY through ~16Z, multi-layered VFR ceilings
between 8-20 thousand aft AGL will result otherwise and elsewhere
through this evening.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings will accompany cold air damming high
pressure that will extend across the srn mid Atlantic late tonight
through Friday. Low level wind shear will also result later Friday,
as strong southwesterly winds stream atop the stable air and
easterly flow at the surface. The slow northward retreat of a warm
front by early Friday night will result in some south to north
lifting and scattering of ceilings, the development of strong and
gusty south southwesterly surface winds, and a chance of showers and
isolated storms Friday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-021100-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
855 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday
evening, with the main hazards being damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073-074-021100-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-
855 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal risk, level one out of five, of a severe
thunderstorm late tonight over northwest portions of the North
Carolina Piedmont. The main risk will be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday
evening, with the main hazards being damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.