A long period northeasterly swell combined with locally generated wind waves produced confused choppy seas and large breaking waves during the first week of March.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A long period northeasterly swell combined with locally generated wind waves produced confused choppy seas and large breaking waves during the first week of March.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 11:19 AM AST, 6 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1119 AM AST Thu Mar 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Skies became partly cloudy to mostly sunny during the late morning
hours, as occasional patches of trade wind moisture crossed the region
carried by the east-northeast winds. Few showers were noted over the
regional waters between Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with
some brushing the northeast sections of PR as well as the USVI. Rainfall
accumulations were less than a quarter of an inch with the light to
moderate rains. The 02/12Z TJSJ upper air sounding suggests PWAT values
around 1.05 inches with continued light east northeast winds between
5 to 15 knots below 700 millibars. Additionally, the low to mid level
cap inversion showed slight erosion as a weak short wave trough will
cross the region today through Friday. Although marine conditions showed
slight improvement today, hazardous seas and dangerous surf zone conditions
are expected once again later tonight and into the upcoming weekend
as winds increase and another northerly swell will arrive across the
regional waters.Otherwise no change to the inherited short term forecast
and reasoning at this time, and still little or no significant precipitation
anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR conds will prevail through the fcst prd. SFC winds will be
light to moderate today,but more easterly between 10-15 kts with
occasionally higher gusts and sea breeze variations, then bcmg
calm to light and variable aft 02/22Z. Few passing SHRA ovr regional
waters en route btw islands but with no significant operational wx
impacts anticipated. SCT ocnl BKN lyrs nr FL030... FL050 en route
btw islands.
&&
.MARINE UPDATE...Recent data from both nearshore and offshore
Atlantic buoys suggests that the dominant long period northeasterly
swell continued to subside but will affect the local Atlantic
waters and passages, as well as the north coastal areas today.
Seas were still running between 4-6 feet and 12-15 secs this
morning at buoy 41043/41053. Another pulse of northerly swell
action is expected to arrive later tonight through Saturday and
therefore again impact the local waters and north coastal areas
at least through Saturday. High Surf Advisories will therefore be
likely beginning later today along with high rip current for the
northern facing beaches for the next several days. Please refer
to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU), Coastal Hazard
Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) issued by WFO San
Juan PR for the latest updates.
&&
From previous discussion 450 AM AST Thu Mar 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect generally dry and stable weather conditions and typical
seasonal temperatures to prevail across the islands. A long period
northeasterly swell continues to cause breaking waves up to 10
feet today, with another pulse arriving tonight to continue this
trend. Trade winds will strengthen by tomorrow as an area of high
pressure builds north of the region. The winds will veer over the
weekend, becoming southeasterly which will increase the amount of
shower activity as moist air moves into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
No significant changes within the expected weather pattern during
the next few days, with generally dry and stable environmental
conditions maintaining fair weather favorable for outdoor
activities. Despite these conditions, marine conditions at limited
to elevated and life-threatening rip currents at high hazard risk
levels will persist through the period. Limited wind hazard risk
level is likely by Friday into the weekend.
A deep-layer high pressure system will remain the dominant feature
across the region, promoting variations in the general wind flow as
it streams eastward across the western Atlantic. East-northeasterly
winds at 10-15 mph, increasing to 10-20 mph and veering east-
southeasterly by Friday and back to the east on Saturday. At mid-
levels, the same high will maintain hostile conditions for deep
convective development with a strong trade wind cap inversion and
drier air entrainment aloft. Although shallow patches of moisture
associated with the remnants of an old frontal boundary will reach
the area on Friday, causing a slight increase in moisture and
passing shower activity, below-normal seasonal moisture levels, and
limited shower activity will persist.
Typical seasonal temperatures will prevail, ranging from the mid 80s
across coastal and other urban areas during the day to around 50
degrees across higher elevations at nighttime. Slightly warmer
temperatures are possible on Friday under east-southeasterly winds.
Slight lower temperatures are likely with clearer nights. Fog
development is expected across the interior between the late night
and early morning hours, creating hazardous driving conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
High pressure at the surface in the central Atlantic will promote
a south-southeasterly wind flow on Sunday into early next week.
Moist air should reach the region as a result of this, causing an
increase of rainfall during this time. However, a ridge in the mid
to upper levels will maintain stable conditions. Slightly higher
temperatures are to be expected across northern sections of Puerto
Rico. On Monday, a polar trough stretched down through the North
Atlantic will reduce stability across the mid and upper levels,
along with patches of moisture moving in, so an increase of clouds
and showers is forecast. Most rainfall should be seen across the
eastern half of the region, eastern PR and the USVI, with some
light afternoon rain across the interior to northwestern areas of
PR.
Tuesday and Wednesday look quite dry as precipitable water values
are projected to be below normals. Later in the week beginning
Thursday, the lower level wind flow starts to back, becoming light
with a variable direction mainly from the north as a large frontal
cyclone in the northern Atlantic stretches southward. The frontal
boundary will begin approaching the region by Friday. This should
bring an advective pattern of showers to reach the northern
coastlines along with slightly cooler temperatures for the islands.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Calm to light and variable winds
increasing after 02/12Z to 10-15 mph around 02/18Z with higher gusts
and sea breeze variations. Winds will once again become light and
variable after 02/22Z. Impacts from occasional trade wind SHRA will
be brief, mainly across USVI terminals.
&&
.MARINE...A long period northeasterly swell continues to affect
the Atlantic waters and passages, however the main concern is
breaking waves up to 10 feet across northern facing coastlines.
Sea heights are generally around 5 feet, with occasionally greater
waves. There is another pulse of swell that will arrive tonight
and trade winds will strengthen over tomorrow, together causing
choppy seas into the early part of the weekend.
This being said, there is a High Surf Advisory for the Northern
Coastline of Puerto Rico that is ending this morning yet another
one may be issued for tomorrow with the next package due to the
continuing hazardous trend. However, the High Rip Current Risk
statement will be in effect through at least tomorrow as surf
heights remain 6 feet or greater.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The lack of significant wetting rainfall continues to support
further drying of soils across the southern Coastal plains of Puerto
Rico, were KBDI value have exceeded fire danger thresholds. With more
dry air entering the region, no wetting rainfall is expected over today.
RH values are expected to drop into critical values and with the strengthening
of winds around noon, fire weather criteria may be met. Due to all of
this, an RFD has been issued for the Southern Coastal Plains of Puerto
Rico.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...RAMPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 400 AM AST jueves 2 de marzo de 2023 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-031000- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 400 AM AST jueves 2 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion, particularmente en sectores de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes locales, donde es probable que el oleaje alcance hasta 6 pies con oleaje ocasional de hasta 8 pies. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente en las playas orientadas hacia el norte desde Rincon hasta Fajardo a traves del norte de Puerto Rico y Culebra. Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en las playas orientadas hacia el norte y este de Vieques. .Incendios...Condiciones elevadas de peligro de incendios son probables en las planicies costeras del sur de Puerto Rico. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles Una marejada del norte que se disipa y un aumento en los vientos mantendran condiciones maritimas picadas a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Se espera el deterioro de las condiciones maritimas y costeras entre el viernes en la noche y el fin de semana, con la llegada de otro pulso de la marejada del norte. La mayoria de las playas locales mantendran un riesgo de moderado a alto de corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida. Pequenas concentraciones de particulas de polvo del Sahara podrian alcanzar el area de domingo a lunes. Las condiciones elevadas de peligro de incendios son posibles hasta principios de la proxima semana. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se requiere la activacion de observadores. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-031000- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 400 AM AST jueves 2 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion, particularmente en sectores de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes locales, donde es probable que el oleaje alcance hasta 6 pies con oleaje ocasional de hasta 8 pies. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente en las playas orientadas hacia el norte de San Thomas y el este de Santa Cruz. Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en las playas orientadas hacia el norte de San John. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles Una marejada del norte que se disipa y un aumento en los vientos mantendran condiciones maritimas picadas a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Se espera el deterioro de las condiciones maritimas y costeras entre el viernes en la noche y el fin de semana, con la llegada de otro pulso de la marejada del norte. La mayoria de las playas locales mantendran un riesgo de moderado a alto de corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida. Pequenas concentraciones de particulas de polvo del Sahara podrian alcanzar el area de domingo a lunes. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se requiere la activacion de observadores.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 49-year-old woman was swept away by rip currents while surfing at Steps beach in Rincon.
A group of five tourists was swept away by rip currents at Caracoles beach in Arecibo. Three were able to swim back to the coastline. However, a father and a son drowned.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Mayaguez and Vicinity | 2023-03-02 | 49 | Female | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, North Central | 2023-03-03 | 33 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, North Central | 2023-03-03 | 61 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1076234, 1076235.