Scattered strong to severe storms impacted much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley during the evening of July 14th. As storms progressed through western Wisconsin, a general weakening trend resulted in a decreased severe threat into central Wisconsin further into the evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Scattered strong to severe storms impacted much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley during the evening of July 14th. As storms progressed through western Wisconsin, a general weakening trend resulted in a decreased severe threat into central Wisconsin further into the evening hours. Only the first storm that persevered into central Wisconsin was able to produce severe weather. Multiple fallen trees were reported near Greenwood and Loyal in the central part of Clark County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 5:00 PM CST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Key Messages: - Wildfire smoke returns to the area. - More storm chances into the evening. - Periodic rain chances to continue well into next week. Weekend Smoke and Air Quality: GOES East Visible satellite imagery shows broad area of thick, gray particulate matter (i.e., smoke) from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to smoke sources in western Canada. Upper level water vapor imagery exhibits an upstream upper level ridge, subsiding the thick smoke towards the surface. Resultant surface observations from the Northern Plains into Montana exhibit reduction in visibilities to 1-5 SM and haze/smoke in weather sensor. Therefore, Air Quality Advisories have been issued for Wisconsin and Minnesota from respective state's DNRs where higher confidence for advection from northwest to southeast through Saturday. The respective Advisories highlight impacts to sensitive groups in the "orange" category. Therefore, have continued mention in weather grids through much of the weekend. While both high resolution smoke models show reduction in surface PM 2.5 concentrations (~35 ug/m3) early Saturday morning, another upstream punch above 60 ug/m3 possible through Saturday afternoon. Something to keep an eye on if concentrations that increased do make it to the surface. Storm Chances and Setup For This Afternoon: Similar mesoscale setup today as yesterday with moist low level air mass in place with slightly drier air off the deck. Today's result has been decreased coverage in storms, comparatively, as the drier air has reduced surface dewpoint temperatures from low 70s to mid to low 60s. The decrease in instability and increase in inhibition evident in ACARS aircraft soundings at Minneapolis St Paul Int'l Airport (KMSP) this morning into the early afternoon with 200-400 J/kg MLCIN and only 25-75 J/kg SBCIN. Similar to yesterday, minimal, nebulous surface convergence limiting any forcing mechanism. With any auto convection extremely hampered by the aforementioned drier air. Initial showers along the Iowa/Minnesota border advecting from west to east through the early afternoon initialized near northwest Iowa in better convergence. As previously mentioned, limited confidence for isolated to scattered storm potential early this afternoon. Later this afternoon, better forcing, from a perturbation evident in water vapor imagery reaching west central Minnesota this afternoon, expected to advect through southeast Minnesota into northeast Iowa and western Wisconsin. Storm Chances Increasing This Evening, Cooler For Saturday: Timing of forcing, reaching convective temperatures to overcome aforementioned dry air & low level warm nose inversion, and stabilizing of mid level lapse rates decrease strength of storms as they advect in the area. While the plume of higher instability (2000 J/kg) pushes into central Wisconsin, loss of diurnal heating decreases instability along frontal forcing, 500-1000 J/kg, as it reaches our northwestern periphery in southeast Minnesota. Not expected to access the 0-1km shear of 20 knots, which is the same as 0-3km shear, given elevated nature of storms. Given the low level dry air, strong wind gusts most possible hazard, but again, limited chances for stronger storms. Given low shear, single cells bunching along the frontal boundary and dissipating strength with southeasterly advection, initially around near 7pm along our northwestern periphery of Dodge to Buffalo counties. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for Saturday as the low level cold front and upper level trough axis passes over the forecast area. Other than the increased Haze and Smoke probabilities, have continued slight storm and rain chances with minute low to mid level instability and daytime mixing. Saturday night through Monday... The upper level currently near Hudsons Bay is forecast to sink south toward the northern Great Lakes over the weekend with the 14.00Z ECMWF suggesting it could sink a little farther south across the Upper Midwest. Either way, short wave troughs will continue to rotate around the upper level low and swing over the region to provide some forcing for additional shower and storm development. The most widespread coverage continues to look to be off the east of the local area with the main baroclinic zone extending from the Eastern Great Lakes south through the Ohio River Valley. Without a discernible boundary to help focus development over the local region, expect any showers and storms that develop to remain scattered in coverage. The exception to this may be on Sunday if the farther south solution of the ECMWF comes to fruition there could be more widespread coverage of showers and storms. In this overall pattern, the instability looks to be pretty minimal leading to an overall very low severe weather threat. Tuesday into Thursday... Weak upper level ridging is still expected to be over the Midwest Tuesday between the departing upper level low over the Great Lakes and the next incoming system across southern Canada. With the ridge look fairly flat, this next system will not take long to bring the rain chances back to the area. Short wave troughs from this low look to start bringing in some forcing Tuesday night with the upper level low itself then tracking across the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday, although in a weakening trend as it becomes an open wave. Again, not a lot of instability is expected to be in place with just enough to support general thunder at times. Temperatures through next week look to remain seasonable with highs in the 70s and 80s. No heat waves are suggested with extremely low probabilities of reaching 90 degrees from the Grand Ensemble data. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 CIGS: some BKN mid level cigs associated with shra/ts into early evening, the mostly sct high clouds with milky skies from Canadian smoke through Sat. WX/vsby: scattered shra/ts through about mid evening as convection sparks from an upper level shortwave in a pool of instability. CAMS shift this activity southeast of the TAF sites by 03-04z and will follow suit for now. WINDS: south/southwest generally under 10 kts tonight...becoming west/northwest Sat morning and picking up to 10+ kts with gusts upwards 20. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && DISCUSSION...04/JAR AVIATION.....Rieck
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 536 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-151445- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 536 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon and evening. Lightning and heavy downpours of rain will be the primary hazards. However, an isolated strong storm is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There will be periodic chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Saturday into early next week. The threat for severe weather remains uncertain at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled. EMS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service La Crosse WI 401 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 IAZ019-029-030-WIZ061-142315- Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Grant- Including the cities of New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, and Platteville 401 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 ...A Few Strong, Possibly Severe Storms For Late Afternoon... Scattered storms will rumble east across portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin through 6 pm. A few could be strong, potentially severe with a large hail threat. Locally heavy rain will occur and winds could gust from 30 to 40 mph. Seek shelter indoors if a storm nears your location. Rieck
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
WIZ029-142330-
Clark WI-
547 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Clark
County through 630 PM CDT...
At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Stanley, or 25 miles northwest of Neillsville, moving
southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Greenwood around 615 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Hog Corners, Mead
Lake, Highway 73 And 98, Sterling Avenue And Starks Road, Tioga,
Christie, Seven Sister Mounds, Globe, The Blue Swamp and Rock Dam
Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4483 9054 4457 9056 4472 9092 4493 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 294DEG 29KT 4483 9093
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RieckThe La Crosse radar (KARX), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:24 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement reported multiple fallen trees near Willard.
Broadcast media reported penny sized hail near Greenwood.
Public reported several large unidirectionally fallen trees near Loyal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1128684, 1128685, 1128686.