Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Florida, July 14 to 17, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
208 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

A fairly wet pattern is expected through the near term with a couple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Showers and
thunderstorms currently ongoing across the area will gradually
diminish over the late afternoon and evening hours. An MCS may push
into the area from the northwest in the early morning hours Friday
with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats. A fairly
tropical airmass will remain overhead with forecast PWs near 2.4 to
2.5 inches across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle. These values may
lead to very high rain rates of near 4 to 5 inches per hour.
Therefore while storms may be moving, it won't take terribly long to
accumulate a lot of rainfall and potentially cause some flooding
issues. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to blossom
across the whole area throughout the day Friday and will continue to
pose a gusty wind and heavy rainfall threat. While heavy rainfall
will be possible areawide, the best chances for flooding exist over
SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle. As such, WPC has placed much of the
area west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall, with most areas further east
in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Friday.

Highs on Friday are forecast to range from the mid 80s to the low
90s thanks to the increase in rain chances and cloud cover. Lows
overnight tonight are forecast in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Ridging off to our west will continue to promote northwest flow
aloft, which will aid in potential MCSs (or their remnant
outflows) rolling down through the area through the short term.
The best chances for storms will be during the late night and
morning hours near the coast, then across land areas during the
late morning and afternoon. Very high PWATs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches
will result in highly efficient rain rates with the storms.
Additionally, some gusty winds are also possible with the stronger
storms. High temperatures on Saturday are rather uncertain given
low confidence in convective evolution, but if storms hold off
until the afternoon, highs will be in the lower 90s. Lows will be
in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

PWATs will come down as some drier air noses in and ridging starts
building in from the west. Rain chances will still be around
60-70 percent Sunday and Monday, then decreasing toward the middle
part of the week. However, we will still remain in north to
northwest flow as we remain on the east side of the ridge. This
remains a favorable pattern for MCSs to move southward into our
forecast area, but drier air may win out and reduce rain chances.
Thus, have undercut rain chances from NBM and previous forecast
packages. With the ridging building in and rain chances
decreasing, temperatures will begin to rise. Highs will return to
the middle to upper 90s across the area. When combined with dew
points in the middle 70s, we'll see heat index values of 105-112
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions could be possible within the next few hours
as cigs and vsbys lower due to a disturbance moving southeast
across the region. The center of this disturbance is currently
over the FL Panhandle/SE Alabama. As it continues moving south-
southeastward it'll continue to produce showers and possibly some
storms this morning with an increase in activity once the sun
rises. MVFR BKN to OVC decks are possible across the region today
due to this disturbance with MVFR to IFR conditions possible
within thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon.
Activity is expected to wind down after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Daily chances of rain are expected due to the land breeze
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during
the late night hours lingering into the morning and early
afternoon. The exception will be any storms that move offshore
during the afternoon. Otherwise, generally light west to southwest
winds are expected with 1 to 2 foot seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Hot and humid conditions are expected with a high chance for wetting
rains over the next couple of days. Therefore, there are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Rainfall totals through the next 3 days will be around 1 to 3
inches across the area, with the higher totals being focused over
the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties. This is
where some localized totals of 4 to 6 inches are also possible.
Given very high moisture content and generally slow moving storms,
these rainfall totals could be achieved within a couple hours.
This may lead to some localized flash flood concerns through the
next few days. However, this should remain localized enough that
it won't cause a rise on area rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  75  91  76 /  80  30  70  10
Panama City   88  78  89  79 /  90  60  70  20
Dothan        88  74  91  75 /  70  30  70  20
Albany        90  75  91  76 /  80  40  70  20
Valdosta      93  75  93  76 /  80  30  60  10
Cross City    92  76  93  76 /  70  20  50  20
Apalachicola  88  79  90  79 /  90  50  80  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young