Winter Storm in Wisconsin, February 22 to 23, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
950 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

At this point, the only headline changes under consideration
would be to adjust the start time to begin the warning a little
earlier.

The northern edge of the intense snow band edging into E-C has
eroded a bit in the past 1/2 hour. But the band had begun to
push northward a bit back in western WI. Might need to start the
warning earlier another tier north, but want to make sure the band
makes a sustained northward push before doing that.

Otherwise, occasional light snow will continue across the rest of
the area through the late morning and into the early afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 836 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Band of snow from W-C to E-C WI continues to organize and drift
north. Vsybs as KFLD and KSBM down to 3/4SM and 1/4SM resp. So
moderate to possibly heavy snow will shift into at least southern
Waushara/Winnebago/Calumet and Manitowoc counties within the next
hour or so. Best course of action seems to be to just pull the
start time of the WS.W back and have it kick in immediately in
those areas. Will allow the WW.Y to expire as scheduled at 900 am.
Might need to eventually start the next tier or two earlier also,
but will hold off making that change for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 807 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

The gist of the forecast still looks good, but some short-term
details are going to need adjustment. The initial snow band has
shifted into northern WI (~KAUW to ~K2D2) and seems to be
weakening as the RRQ of the upper speed max pulls off to the NE.
The main band of precipitation expected to generate the warning
criteria snows as liftg north acrs ern IA/nrn IL and won't arrive
until this afternoon. The feature not accounted for in the
current forecast was the developing band of snow just south of the
forecast area. That band was lifting north, and it's arrival is
not accounted for in our current headline timing. Will need to
make a decision in the next hour or so on how to handle it.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Low level warm advection and upper support provided by the right
entrance region of a 145kt jet at 300mb was producing light snow
across the forecast area at 09z. Temperatures are cold enough
aloft to get some lake effect snow from Lake Michigan across the
Door Peninsula.

The snow will diminish over most of the area this morning as the
upper jet departs and warm advection weakens. The snow will
intensify from south to north during the afternoon hours as the
right entrance region of a jet streak moves across eastern Wisconsin.
Winds will also increase from the northeast as low pressure
approaches from Midwest.

The snow should become heavy tonight as the left exit region of
an unusually strong 170kt jet at 300mb moves across the area with
strong warm advection in low levels. Northeast winds should gust
to 35 mph as the surface low moves across Illinois towards Lower
Michigan and produce blowing and drifting snow and near blizzard
conditions in some areas. Snow accumulations should range from 8
to 14 inches from this afternoon through midday Thursday. Some
sleet could mix in across East Central Wisconsin as temperatures
get close to freezing at 850mb and reduce snow totals there.

The snow and wind should continue Thursday morning as the low
moves across Lower Michigan but quickly diminish in the afternoon
as the system moves rapidly to the northeast. Travel conditions
should improve in the afternoon after roads and sidewalks are
shoveled and plowed.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Model guidance still showing an upper trough over the western
CONUS, a closed upper low north of Hudson Bay and a subtropical
ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic. After a
brief precipitation chance Friday night associated with a northern
stream shortwave trough/WAA, attention to be focused on the
western CONUS trough that will be ejected northeast by an upstream
kicker and track into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday.
This system bears watching as gulf moisture to be available and
plenty of dynamics appear to be in place for another potentially
significant system. Eventual track will determine precipitation
type which may include rain. Cold temperatures to start the period
will warm to at or above normal early next week.

Thursday night and Friday...
Any lingering light snow will end Thursday evening over most of
northeast WI as the storm continues to pull farther away. The
exception would be north-central WI where lake effect snows could
persist through the night as 8H temperatures over western Lake
Superior fall to around -24C and winds become northwest. Any
accumulation looks to be very minor due to high pressure starting
to build into the region after midnight and sending drier air
eastward. Thursday night will also be the coldest night of the
extended forecast as min temperatures drop into the single digits
below zero over central WI, around 5 above zero closer to Lake MI.
Wind chill values by daybreak to be in the 10 below to 20 below
zero range. This high pressure moves across WI Friday morning and
shifts toward the eastern Great Lakes Friday afternoon. Initial
sunshine in the morning is expected to give way to increasing
clouds in the afternoon as a return flow and modest WAA develops
over WI. The cold start to the day will limit diurnal warming with
max temperatures to only reach the middle to upper teens.

Friday night and Saturday...
It does not take long for the atmosphere to saturate going into
Friday night with the ongoing WAA and when coupled with a weak
northern stream shortwave trough, anticipate a good chance of
light snow to sweep across the forecast area. Perhaps around an
inch to an inch and a half of snow is possible, just enough to
provide some slick spots on area roads. Min temperatures to range
from around 5 above zero north-central WI, 10 to 15 above near
Lake MI. Generally quiet conditions are forecast on Saturday with
a clipper system moving across southern Canada and a cold front to
be pushing across the Upper MS Valley. A bit more in the way of
clouds north, otherwise a warmer day on tap with max temperatures
in the middle to upper 20s north, upper 20s to lower 30s south.

Saturday night and Sunday...
This cold front sweeps across northeast WI Saturday night, but a
lack of moisture would preclude the mention of any precipitation.
Once again, the exception could be north-central WI as winds veer
northwest and perhaps a little lake effect may develop. However,
the next area of high pressure to already be building into WI
after midnight, thus any snow would be short-lived. This high
pressure slides across WI Sunday morning and already reach the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon. Anticipate a decent amount
of sunshine through the day with max temperatures mainly in the
lower to middle 30s.

Sunday night and Monday...
The next system of interest to already be felt over the forecast
area later Sunday night as what once was the western CONUS upper
trough to have moved into the southern Plains, then tracked
northeast into the mid-MS Valley by 12Z Monday. This is a much
warmer system with plenty of warm, moist air getting pulled north
from the gulf. Temperatures at ground level to be below freezing
when the precipitation arrives which would bring the potential for
freezing rain to occur. As temperatures warm on Monday, mixed
precipitation type of snow/freezing rain north, rain/freezing rain
south to become more snow north, rain south in the afternoon. Of
course, the eventual track of the surface low will determine
precipitation type and there is plenty of time for the models to
waffle. Either way, it looks like Sunday night into Monday could
be messy.

Monday night and Tuesday...
As this system pulls away Monday night, models are showing decent
CAA and a tight pressure gradient over WI, thus a blustery night
in store with perhaps some lake effect snows over north-central
WI. Weather conditions improved on Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure approaches from the west. Temperatures by Tuesday to
range from around 30 degrees north-central, lower to middle 30s
elsewhere.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

MVFR conditions are mostly expected this morning, with areas of
IFR conditions and snow showers. A winter storm approaching from
the Central Plains will bring increasing northeast winds and
intensifying snow from south to north during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

Moderate to heavy snow is likely across the entire region tonight
with northeast winds gusting to 35 knots at times. The snow will
continue Thursday morning and quickly diminish Thursday afternoon.
Snow accumulations of a foot or more are possible in some areas
with significant drifts.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday
for WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-073.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST
Thursday for WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-074.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ045-048>050.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1012 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-231530-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1012 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Snow will increase from south to north during the afternoon and
early evening. Periods of heavy snow and strong northeast winds
are expected overnight. Considerable blowing and drifting snow is
likely, with near blizzard conditions possible. Snow accumulations
from this afternoon through Thursday morning should range from 8
to 12 inches in most places. Locally higher amounts are possible.

Hazardous travel conditions are expected, especially from late
afternoon and tonight. If you must travel, bring blankets, a snow
shovel and a phone in case you become stranded. Air travel will
likely be disrupted as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Snow and strong winds will continue through Thursday morning before
diminishing in the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow may continue
into the afternoon. Hazardous travel conditions for the Thursday
morning commute.

Another weather system is forecast to affect the region Sunday
night into Monday with the potential of bringing a wide range of
precipitation types to the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements to the
National Weather Service. The public can report their snow amounts
via the NWS Green Bay Twitter and Facebook pages.

LMZ521-522-541>543-231530-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1012 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Northeast gale force winds are expected this afternoon into
Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Northwest gale force gusts are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

Skowronski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
713 AM CST WED FEB 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             3 S BAKERVILLE          44.59N 90.20W
02/22/2023  M4.0 INCH        WOOD               WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WD-21 MARSHFIELD 5.6
            SSW.

0630 AM     SNOW             1 W SILVER LAKE         44.04N 89.24W
02/22/2023  M3.5 INCH        WAUSHARA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WAOW3 WAUTOMA 3 SE.

0600 AM     SNOW             1 ESE WILD ROSE         44.18N 89.24W
02/22/2023  M3.4 INCH        WAUSHARA           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WH-7 WILD ROSE 0.5 E.

0550 AM     SNOW             2 NNW STRATFORD         44.82N 90.09W
02/22/2023  M3.4 INCH        MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION STRW3 STRATFORD 1 NW.

0600 AM     SNOW             2 NNE RUDOLPH           44.53N 89.79W
02/22/2023  M3.2 INCH        PORTAGE            WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-PT-8 RUDOLPH 1 NNE.

0600 AM     SNOW             1 N WAUPACA             44.35N 89.06W
02/22/2023  M3.1 INCH        WAUPACA            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WWWW3 WAUPACA 1 E.

0630 AM     SNOW             2 SE NEW LONDON         44.36N 88.72W
02/22/2023  M3.1 INCH        OUTAGAMIE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION NONW3 NEW LONDON 2
            SE.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 N SISTER BAY          45.20N 87.11W
02/22/2023  M3.0 INCH        DOOR               WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-DR-6 SISTER BAY 1 N.

0600 AM     SNOW             1 N ZITTAU              44.22N 88.78W
02/22/2023  M2.8 INCH        WINNEBAGO          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ZITW3 ZITTAU.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 WSW OMRO              44.02N 88.78W
02/22/2023  M2.8 INCH        WINNEBAGO          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WN-7 OMRO 1 WSW.

0600 AM     SNOW             1 N PULASKI             44.68N 88.23W
02/22/2023  M2.5 INCH        OCONTO             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PULW3 PULASKI - WWTP.

0600 AM     SNOW             7 NNE HAMBURG           45.18N 89.85W
02/22/2023  M2.5 INCH        LINCOLN            WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-LN-2 MERRILL 7 W.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W OSHKOSH             44.01N 88.62W
02/22/2023  M2.0 INCH        WINNEBAGO          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WN-33 OSHKOSH 3.1 W.

0834 AM     SNOW             4 N PHELPS              46.12N 89.08W
02/21/2023  M2.0 INCH        VILAS              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION LVDW3 PHELPS 4.2 N.

0400 AM     SNOW             SURING                  45.00N 88.38W
02/22/2023  M2.0 INCH        OCONTO             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BREW3 SURING.

0613 AM     SNOW             2 NNW TWO RIVERS        44.18N 87.58W
02/22/2023  M2.0 INCH        MANITOWOC          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-MC-4 TWO RIVERS 2 NW.

0400 AM     SNOW             FISH CREEK              45.12N 87.23W
02/22/2023  M2.0 INCH        DOOR               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION FISW3 FISH CREEK 1 E
            WWTP.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
834 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-221600-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
834 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

...COMPLEX WINTER STORM SETTLING IN ACROSS THE AREA...

A complex winter storm was settling in across the region. A
couple small bands of snow will affect the area this morning, then
widespread heavy snow will overspread the area from south to north
this afternoon and evening.

The initial band of snow with the storm produced 2 to 4 inches of
accumulation over much of central and east central Wisconsin
overnight. At 830 am, that band extended along a line from Wausau
to northern Door County and was weakening. It is expected to
continue to weaken and drift north during the mid to late morning
hours.

A second band of snow developed a little farther south during the
past few hours. It extended from La Crosse to Montello to near
Sheboygan. It was also drifting north, and will bring some
moderate to possibly heave snows to the Wautoma, Oshkosh, to
Chilton, to southern Manitowoc County areas between 900 am and
1100 am.

Occasional light snow and flurries will continue for the mid to
late morning hours between the two bands, and across far northern
Wisconsin.

Most roads across the area are snow covered and slippery. Anyone
traveling across the area should plan on encountering hazardous
travel conditions and allow extra time to reach their
destination. Areas from Wautoma to Oshkosh to southern Manitowoc
County will also have low visibility at times, and especially
hazardous conditions due to the moderate to heavy snow.

Skowronski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
836 AM CST WED FEB 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSE EVERGREEN         44.82N 89.63W
02/22/2023  M4.1 INCH        MARATHON           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-MT-27 MOSINEE 3.6 NE.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 NNW HEWITT            44.64N 90.13W
02/22/2023  M4.0 INCH        WOOD               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MFDW3 HEWITT 0.8 N.

0500 AM     SNOW             1 NE MOON               44.77N 89.77W
02/22/2023  M3.8 INCH        MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION EPTW3 MOON 1 E.

0530 AM     SNOW             3 E PELLA               44.74N 88.74W
02/22/2023  M3.6 INCH        SHAWANO            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PELW3 PELLA 3 SE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WSW EVERGREEN         44.84N 89.67W
02/22/2023  M3.5 INCH        MARATHON           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-MT-19 EVERGREEN 1.5 WSW.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 E PORT EDWARDS        44.34N 89.78W
02/22/2023  M3.4 INCH        WOOD               WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WD-2 PORT EDWARDS 2 E.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 S ANTIGO              45.13N 89.15W
02/22/2023  M3.4 INCH        LANGLADE           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ANTW3 ANTIGO 1 SSW.

0750 AM     SNOW             ROSHOLT                 44.63N 89.31W
02/22/2023  M3.1 INCH        PORTAGE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION RSTW3 ROSHOLT.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 N OSHKOSH             44.03N 88.56W
02/22/2023  M3.0 INCH        WINNEBAGO          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION OKHW3 OSHKOSH.

0730 AM     SNOW             3 SW INSTITUTE          44.87N 87.33W
02/22/2023  M2.8 INCH        DOOR               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION SBEW3 STURGEON BAY
            EXP FARM.

0730 AM     SNOW             3 ENE BOWLER            44.87N 88.90W
02/22/2023  M2.7 INCH        SHAWANO            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BOWW3
            STOCKBRIDGE-MUNSEE RESERVATION.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 SSE AMHERST           44.41N 89.26W
02/22/2023  M2.7 INCH        PORTAGE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION AMHW3 AMHERST 3 SE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
925 AM CST WED FEB 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             1 SW SPENCER            44.75N 90.29W
02/22/2023  M3.8 INCH        MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION SPCW3 SPENCER - WWTP.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NNE EPHRAIM           45.17N 87.15W
02/22/2023  M3.8 INCH        DOOR               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION EPMW3 EPHRAIM 1 NE -
            WWTP.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
959 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-221730-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
959 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

...COMPLEX WINTER STORM SETTLING IN ACROSS THE AREA...

A complex winter storm continued to settle in across the region.
The initial band of snow with the storm, which produced 2 to 4
inches of accumulation over much of central and east central
Wisconsin overnight, had shifted into northern Wisconsin and
weakened considerably.

At 955 am, another band of snow was pushing into central and
east-central Wisconsin from the south. Periods of moderate to
heavy snow with this band will affect areas from Wautoma to
Oshkosh, to Chilton, to southern Manitowoc County through at least
lunchtime.

Occasional light snow and flurries will continue through the mid-
day hours across the rest of the area. Accumulations though the
mid-day hours will be light, but the combination of the occasional
light snow and some blowing and drifting of the snow that had
already fallen will result in slippery roads and hazardous travel
conditions.

Anyone traveling across the area should plan on encountering
hazardous travel conditions and allow extra time to reach their
destination. Areas from Wautoma to Oshkosh to southern Manitowoc
County will also have low visibility at times, and especially
hazardous conditions due to the periods of moderate to heavy
snow.

Skowronski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1011 AM CST WED FEB 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     SNOW             SISTER BAY              45.18N 87.11W
02/22/2023  M3.8 INCH        DOOR               WI   PUBLIC

            VIA WBAY TV.

&&

SAC