Scattered thunderstorms in advance of a frontal boundary produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of eastern Virginia.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms in advance of a frontal boundary produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of eastern Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 2:35 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary over the area will weaken through Monday. This boundary will provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A strong cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday, ushering in markedly cooler and drier air for the late week period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... Latest analysis reveals an increasingly diffuse sfc trough across western MD, extending SSW across north-central VA into central NC. Scattered hit or miss type pulse convection continues to pop up along the boundary, with additional storms along the coast, as additional shortwave energy lifts SW to NE across the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Convection has been a bit more limited thus far this afternoon relative to the past few days. More widespread showers this morning and resultant widespread convective debris cloudiness have hung around and served to hold down temperatures near or just below convective temperatures. Nevertheless, given the weak DVPA and moist airmass in place, the 20-40% PoP for rather disorganized, pulse- style convection remains in place as isolated to widely scattered showers and storms push NNW across the area through early evening. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats, with flooding of urban/poor- drainage areas a possibility. We have received some reports of broad spinning of some cells along the coast, likely attributable to localized backing to the low-level flow. Decreasing clouds this evening with temperatures falling into the 70s. Another night with increasing clouds late. Areas of fog/low stratus is expected late this evening into the early morning hours of Monday. Time-lagged HRRR and NBM guidance showing potential for some spotty dense fog issues around sunrise Monday morning. Overnight lows in the 60s to near 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... The trough flattens a bit Monday in response to the approaching upper trough from the NW, with the upper flow becoming a bit faster and drier. This will serve to lower rain chances across the area, especially with even weaker forcing in light of the sfc front washing out with time across the area. We've maintained a 20% PoP for all but the far western piedmont counties under a partly sunny sky. Highs in the mid-upper 80s expected for most, highest temps will be across SE VA and NE NC. On Tuesday, previously referenced anomalously strong upper-level trough will dive S out of eastern Canada into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes, compelling a developing sfc wave of low pressure to take shape downstream over E MI into SE Ontario early Tue morning. The trailing attendant cold front sweeps across the mid-section of the country from the Ohio Valley into the central/southern Plains into east TX towards the Gulf Coast late Mon night into Tuesday, reaching the mid and deep south Tuesday afternoon into Tue night. The positively-tilted upper trough becomes more neutral with time Tue night and Wed. As such, while upper-level height falls occur ahead of the trough, expect precip chances later Tues afternoon to remain largely to our NW. That said, height falls and decent instability will likely compel some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to develop over the piedmont, and will keep 20-40% PoP in place, highest west of I-95. Compressional heating and a slight uptick in low-level thicknesses also portend a slightly warmer day Tue, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... Seasonably warm and muggy airmass will give way to markedly cooler and drier conditions for the late week period behind a crossing cold front. The front will likely be accompanied by showers and isolated thunderstorms, which pushes across the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wed night. The upper trough progresses east across the northeast Wednesday, with the surface front crossing the area Wednesday. Should note that the 12z/10 deterministic runs are slightly quicker with frontal timing, which would put a substantial dent in our severe potential on Wednesday if this were to pan out. Still some time to watch it, though, and have maintained late day/evening timing for now. Either way, given a relatively moist warm sector ahead of the front, the potential is there for a few tstms across the SE given decent wind fields aloft. Large spread in 25th and 75th percentile NBM guidance (6-10 degrees in spots across the east) nicely shows wide range in possible highs on Wed, dependent on actual frontal timing. More confident that highs stay in the 70s across the W/NW, but highs in the upper 80s to around 90 possible over southside Hampton Roads into NE NC if the later timing is realized, cooler low to mid 80s if front is a bit quicker. The front kicks offshore Wed night with markedly cooler conditions on the way for the end of the week, as cool high pressure builds in across the central and eastern US. Turning to Tropical Cyclone Lee, there remains some differences between the three major global models. Differences mainly pertain to the respective model handling of the upper-level pattern downstream of Hurricane Lee, along with future implications on its track. The 12z GFS has swung a bit westward and remains more progressive w/ the midweek upper-level trough. The remaining guidance (ECMWF and CMC) are each slower, forming a cut-off low to our N. The ECMWF eventually swings another trough to our N which pulls Lee to the NW, close to coastal New England and Canadian Maritimes. The model ensembles and their respective means are more confident that Lee stays well offshore, notably including the GEFS guidance which diverges from the GFS. Increasing rip currents are likely for the late week period. Depending on timing and the amount of any tightening of the surface pressure gradient, breezy NE winds will ramp up a bit late this week, with some minor to locally moderate coastal flood impacts possible. Continue to stay up to date with the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center regarding Lee. Either way, dry air is expected to surge into the FA behind the front for Thursday with highs in the mid/upper 70s-around 80 (highest SE) expected Thurs into next weekend. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s (perhaps cooler across the NW). Dew points will also be much lower so expect an pronounced increase in comfort levels outside. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... Isolated to widely showers and storms across area terminals once again this afternoon, with greatest coverage in the vicinity of the KRIC terminal. Additional shower/storms could lead to localized and short-lived MVFR to IFR restrictions. Otherwise, CIGs remain VFR across the terminals this afternoon. Showers diminish in areal coverage late this evening and overnight, with aviation guidance again trending toward additional MVFR/LCL IFR ground fog and/or stratus late, with the piedmont (KRIC) and lower eastern shore again favored. Outlook: Generally drier w/ only a slight chc for showers/storms Monday/Tuesday. A cold front approaches the area from the west Wednesday. Thursday appearing to be markedly cooler and drier post-frontal. && .MARINE... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... A diffuse frontal boundary is situated across inland portions of the area this aftn, with light (5-10 kt) easterly winds across most of the waters. Seas are ~2 ft, with ~1 ft waves. The boundary pushes off the coast Monday/Monday night and dissipates Tuesday. The wind will be variable at 5-10 kt through Tuesday. Winds become S then SW at 10-15 kt Tuesday night as the pressure gradient increases a bit ahead of an approaching (stronger) cold front. The front is progged to cross the waters Wed night, with decent CAA in its wake. Winds become N behind the front and increase to 15-20 kt by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee is forecast to track WNW well N of Puerto Rico early this week, and then turn more NW then N by Wednesday/Thursday. The gradient between Lee (likely well to our east by late this week) and high pressure to our northwest will likely result in N-NE of 15-25 kt (highest S) from Thu-Fri. As for waves/seas, NWPS guidance depicts long period swell with 14- 17s periods arriving as early as tonight, and this long period swell will likely continue throughout the week. The initial swell will generally be ~2ft tonight, then ~3ft by Mon aftn, with building seas likely (5-8ft nearshore/8-10ft offshore) by mid-late week. In addition, north-northeasterly 4-6s period wind waves will likely increase to 5-8 ft by Thu/Fri. The threat for rip currents will increase Monday, with a high risk of rip currents likely Tuesday through at least the remainder of the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAM/SW AVIATION...MAM/SW MARINE...ERI
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 417 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>100-509>525-110830- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 417 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning through this evening and will be capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to isolated instances of localized flooding, especially in flood prone or urban areas. In addition, frequent lightning and gusty winds are also possible in any stronger storms that form. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023
VAZ079-080-102100-
Dinwiddie VA-Brunswick VA-
416 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DINWIDDIE AND
NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McKenney, moving east at 15 mph. This storm has been exhibiting
weak, broad rotation.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
McKenney around 420 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Center Star, Burgess,
Cherry Hill, Rawlings, Rocky Run, Warfield, Wharfs Store, and
Butterworth.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3708 7781 3715 7749 3691 7756 3688 7761
3689 7765 3690 7765 3689 7766 3690 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 270DEG 11KT 3694 7776
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MillerThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:16 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was reported on Hudgins Farm Road. Water was about one foot deep.
Rainfall total of 2.00 inches was reported in 50 minutes, and 2.97 inches of rain was reported in 2 hours 30 minutes.
All lanes were closed on Route 607 in King William County in the vicinity of Upshaw Road due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140344, 1140348, 1140346.