A warm front moved eastward towards the Kentucky border counties during the day on September 9th, 2023. It then stalled during the afternoon and evening along the highest terrain just east of the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm front moved eastward towards the Kentucky border counties during the day on September 9th, 2023. It then stalled during the afternoon and evening along the highest terrain just east of the state. Showers and thunderstorms developed just ahead of this front and moved westward into eastern Kentucky. As the front stalled, the storms began back-building and training across some of the same areas. Bell County was the hardest hit in eastern Kentucky, receiving over 3.5 inches in a 2 hour time period. Multiple instances of flash flooding were reported as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 3:45 PM EST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2023 20Z sfc analysis shows a wavy boundary just off to the east of Kentucky. This is close enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly the southeast parts of the area late this afternoon into the evening. So far it seems that the storms have been more widely scattered and showing more progressiveness than those of yesterday. Otherwise, the lower stratus clouds have mostly cleared allowing the temperatures to spike and instability to climb. Currently, temperatures are running in the 75 to 80 degree range. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are up there in the mid to upper 60s - most places. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in generally decent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict heights rebounding over Kentucky initially tonight into Monday in advance of a large and deep trough diving into the Upper Midwest. This process will erase most of the lingering mid level energy over the state until Tuesday morning when heights start to fall again with the approach of that trough. Of note: the GFS and ECMWF are more aggressive than the NAM with a lead wave affecting the state just ahead of the main trough on Tuesday morning and this minor discrepancy will need to be monitored with later runs. The model/ensemble spreads are narrow enough to support using the blended NBM solution for the forecast grids with little adjustment needed. Sensible weather will feature a generally drier 36 to 48 hours on tap compared to the past days. This starts this evening as the convection likely comes to an end earlier than it did last night and affecting less of the area. We will see partial clearing through the night before stratus and fog develop as higher clouds allow. Dense fog - especially in the valleys could be a concern later tonight into Monday morning. Once the low clouds and fog clear out, Monday will be a dry and pleasant day with much more in the way of sunshine thanks to rising mid level heights and a passing area of sfc high pressure. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm on Monday afternoon and into the night but have kept the PoPs for this time period in the single digits. For tonight (and Monday night) expect, in addition to the fog, that a small ridge to valley temperature split will occur. The main adjustment to the NBM starting point was to include more of the CAMs ideas into the PoPs for this evening. Also added a touch of extra terrain distinction to the temperatures for tonight and Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 439 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2023 Our active weather for the long term period should all be early on. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, supported by a significant upper level trough with its heart moving eastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday. We're not looking for any substantial influx of additional moisture ahead of the system, but it should be strong enough to work with what's here to bring showers or thunderstorms to most of the area at some point Tuesday or Tuesday night. There is still some difference among models for the timing of the system, and this was handled by temporal broadness in the POP. If any rain lingers on Wednesday, it should be gone by evening and surface high pressure will be dropping southeast from the Great Lakes. This will bring us a much cooler and drier air mass. The high pressure will linger near our area into the weekend with this air mass, even though the bulk of the supporting upper level trough lifts out to the northeast. This should result in our coolest temperatures so far for the autumn season we are entering, However, the air mass will eventually start to modify and warm going into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2023 At issuance time, the aviation conditions were improving through eastern Kentucky as CIGs are slowly climbing and breaking up. However, heating has once again allowed for showers and thunderstorms to develop, creating localized brief times of IFR and worse conditions - mainly between 18Z and 00Z. Look for the the greatest concentration of convection to be south and southeast of the TAF sites. Convection should diminish thereafter, with some partial clearing possibly leading to a mixture of valley fog and stratus. A downward trend in categories during the latter part of the night was included in the TAFs, but may be needed beefed up further with future updates. Below airport min conditions cannot be ruled out for some of the terminals. CIGs then improve gradually on Monday morning. Outside of any storms, light winds prevail through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-112015- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 415 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Late this afternoon through tonight. Thunderstorms are possible into the evening, mainly in the far southeast Kentucky. A few storms could produce locally heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GREIF/HAL
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:24 UTC.
5 heavy rain, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The National Park Service YELK2 RAWS site at Cumberland Gap recorded 1.68 inches of rainfall in 1 hour.
A two hour rainfall total of 4 inches was recorded at the Cumberland Gap National Park Service RAWS - YELK2.
The MDLK2 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers observation site recorded a one hour rainfall total of 1.96 inches.
A two hour rainfall total of 3.60 inches was recorded at the MDLK2 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HADS gage.
The K1A6 AWOS site at the airport near Middlesboro recorded a one hour rainfall total of 1.74 inches.
Middlesboro Police Department reported that Cumberland Avenue was closed between 15th and 19th Streets due to flash flooding.
Middlesboro Police Department reported the closure of Highway 25E at Hardees due to flash flooding.
Middlesboro Police Department reported that North 15th Street was closed at Ashbury Avenue in the vicinity of Little Yellow Creek due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1139009, 1139023, 1139011, 1139024, 1139013, 1139018, 1139020, 1139022.