Scattered thunderstorms resulted in heavy rain and flash flooding across southeast Virginia on June 25.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms resulted in heavy rain and flash flooding across southeast Virginia on June 25.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 2:27 PM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Upper-level low pressure continues to slowly weaken this evening and finally moves off the coast tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will diminish early this evening through the overnight. A cold front will bring the threat of widespread thunderstorms with potential for strong to severe storms late Monday into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... Latest analysis reveals weakening upper low pushing offshore of the northeast/New England coast at midday. To the west, an upper low was in place NW of the Chicago area, and will continue toward the western Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, low pressure continues to slide offshore of the northeast coast, with a surface trough in place along the immediate coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected this afternoon focused mainly along the coastal/pre-frontal trough. PoPs are 30-40%, highest over Hampton Roads and south to the Albemarle Sound with additional interaction from afternoon seabreezes. Otherwise, remaining moderately humid and seasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F. Considering weak shear, expect any showers and storms that develop during the late afternoon and evening should dissipate with loss of heating this evening. However, there may be a few showers that survive from upstream convection ahead of the cold front that push into the area overnight. Would expect that most stay dry overnight, with a muggy, warm night expected. Lows mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... Forecast confidence continues to increase with respect to potential for showers and thunderstorms moving across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Previously referenced upper low over the upper midwest will be digging southeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, eventually becoming neg tilted over the Ohio Valley late tonight. Models continue to show a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere across the area tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will quickly climb well into the 80s, with a few readings around 90 possible. These readings, in tandem with dew points in the lower 70s will bring heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees. This is normally not very notable in late June across the lower Mid- Atlantic, but given the cool summer we've had to date, it is at least worth mentioning. However, of more pressing importance is that the building heat and humidity will also bring about increasingly unstable conditions tomorrow afternoon. We are becoming increasingly wary of an EML plume, forecast to lift NE across the area tomorrow afternoon. Steepening lapse rates will be in the 6.5 - 7.5 deg C/Km range tomorrow afternoon, and with increasing Td values, MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/KG are also expected. SPC has increased the severe storm threat to an Enhanced Risk over the entire area. Risks include (1) large hail due to steepening mid- level lapse rates, adequate deep layered shear, and plentiful instability in the hail-growth zone, (2) damaging winds due to dry air aloft and steep low-level lapse rates that may aid in accelerating downdrafts (DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and (3) frequent to continuous lightning with W-SW winds aloft and -10 to -30 deg C CAPE values ~1000-1500 J/kg across the region. Kinematics favor a more discrete storm mode initially tomorrow afternoon, with a more cold pool dominant/linear storm mode after 00z/Tue (8pm). SPC has outlined areas along and west of the I-95 corridor for a greater threat of large hail (diameter ~2 inches). The large hail threat coincides with the more discrete supercell potential in the afternoon and early evening. As the line becomes more linear and cold pool dominant, expect strong winds become the more widespread threat into the balance of the event Mon from I-95 to the coast. Most likely timing remains from mid to late Mon afternoon after 2 PM into late Monday evening. Since the airmass will be relatively moist with PWAT values at 1.50-2.00". While steering flow will keep storms moving, recent rains will make for areas with a very low tolerance for repeated heavy rains, mainly the urban and typically poor drainage areas. WPC continues to show a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Some isolated location may receive up to 3" of rainfall with rain rates at 1-2 inches per hour. In terms of mitigating factors that could prevent strong to severe storms from transpiring, we will need to monitor upstream mesoscale convection system (MCS) activity over the OH River Valley. While we could see a few showers that cross the area late tonight into monday morning, there is limited potential that clouds could hang around longer to delay destabilitation. Secondarily, while the EML could substantially enhance updraft strength it could also present a capping inversion that could briefly delay convective onset. Nevertheless, well-performing machine learning pages from both CSU and NCAR neural network, as well as HREF/SPC probs continue to hold steady or even ratchet parameters (probs of SVR winds/strong vertical velocities) upward slightly...and each point toward an impactful event for our region. Highs warm in the low 90s (maybe mid 90s in central VA urban corridors) before any afternoon convection. Convection should drop off after 10pm inland, by 2am east, with clearing thereafter. Lows Mon night will remain mild in the upper 60s-low 70s. The trough will remain over the region on Tuesday, with a broad area of low pressure extending south into the area. Expect additional convection fires Tuesday afternoon, likely focused along the frontal boundary. No severe storms are expected at this time, with slow- moving heavy rainers most favored with PWs remaining AOA 1.5 to 1.75 (125% or so of normal). High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Another slow moving upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mid- Atlantic for the second half of the week ahead. The strong ridge over the southern Plains and northern Mexico will try to expand NE as the stationary trough weakens, but looks to stay SW of the area. However, this will result in an NW upper-level flow over the region and will provide adequate instability for renewed afternoon convection each day in the period. Confidence regarding coverage of precip remains difficult at best at this time range. Latest GEFS shows best chances Fri/Sat as the ridge builds closer the region, but expect this will likely change as we get closer. Afternoon high temperatures will steadily climb each day from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... VFR with SCT afternoon CU field over area terminals to begin the 18z TAF period. S-SW winds 5-10kt (becoming NE at ORF later in the aftn with the sea-breeze). Iso-Sct aftn showers/tstms could produce brief flight restrictions in heavy rain. Otherwise, predominate VFR conditions tonight through early Mon afternoon. Outlook: Widespread showers and storms return to the region Monday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe tstms possible after 18z Mon through 00-04z/Tue with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible. Unsettled conditions continue on Tue/Wed, as an upper trough lingers over the area, with a chc of primarily aftn/evening showers/tstms. Drier conditions return by Thursday as the trough pushes offshore. && .MARINE... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... Sea breezes are dominating this afternoon with onshore flow near the coast. Over the coastal waters the winds are gradually turning southerly in response to the weak lee trough developing inland. Expect southerly winds across the entire coastal waters and bay/rivers this evening, then gradually increase late tonight into Monday as the cold front currently over the Ohio Valley approaches. Winds increase Monday and it still looks like there is the potential for a period of low-end SCAs from Mon aftn-Mon night (due to SSW winds of 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt) as low pressure tracks well to our north and the cold front slowly approaches from the west. Will not issue any SCA headlines with the overnight package as it is a low-end 3rd/4th period (potential) event. In addition, widespread tstms are expected late Monday aftn into late Monday evening. These storms may consolidate into a line as they approach/track across the waters. The most likely timing for strong to severe storms over the waters is from 21-04z/5 PM-midnight. SMWs will be needed and gusts in excess of 50 kt are possible. Seas build to 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N by late Monday, and are expected to remain in that range through Tuesday. Waves on the Bay will build to 2-3 ft during this time. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt on Tue. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Wed-Fri as that weak cold front finally crosses the waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...CP/MAM LONG TERM...CP/MAM AVIATION...AJZ/CP MARINE...ERI/MRD
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098- 523>525-262015- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford- Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans- Eastern Currituck-Gloucester-Mathews-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 409 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday...mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible. The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed on Monday evening. MDZ025-VAZ099-100-262015- Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton- 409 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday...mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible. The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Monday evening. VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522-262015- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Greensville-Sussex-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 409 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is an enhanced risk for severe weather Monday. Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible after 2 pm Monday afternoon, with the threat for strong to severe storms continuing into Monday evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed on Monday. 05
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
VAZ083-085-518-520-252030-
New Kent VA-Middlesex VA-Eastern King William VA-
Eastern King and Queen VA-
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Middlesex, southeastern King and Queen, northeastern New Kent and
southeastern King William Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Little Plymouth, or near West Point, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Shacklefords around 420 PM EDT.
Church View around 430 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Mattaponi, Eltham,
Warner, Mascot, Velma, Romancoke, Plum Point, Gressit and Clancie.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3760 7664 3760 7665 3754 7666 3753 7667
3750 7665 3748 7665 3746 7666 3749 7681
3752 7686 3765 7686 3769 7664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 272DEG 9KT 3760 7678
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ZimmermanSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
NCZ014>016-VAZ096-097-252030-
Pasquotank NC-Camden NC-Gates NC-Suffolk VA-Chesapeake VA-
404 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Camden,
northwestern Pasquotank, and northeastern Gates Counties, the
southwestern City of Chesapeake and the southeastern City of Suffolk
through 430 PM EDT...
At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sunbury, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Corapeake around 420 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Horseshoe, Lynchs
Corner, Savage, Acorn Hill, Nurney, Hazelton and Saunders.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3641 7668 3663 7673 3672 7646 3641 7637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 248DEG 14KT 3648 7663
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
WraySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
VAZ089-093-252030-
Isle of Wight VA-Surry VA-
406 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Isle of
Wight and southeastern Surry Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Isle Of Wight, or 9 miles west of Smithfield, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Isle Of Wight around 420 PM EDT.
Smithfield around 425 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Pons, Longview, Benns
Church, Wills Corner, Bethel Church, Delk Crossroads, Lawson, Central
Hill, Whitley and Comet.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3687 7683 3688 7682 3688 7683 3691 7683
3693 7684 3705 7684 3709 7657 3708 7656
3688 7658 3683 7664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 271DEG 16KT 3697 7679
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ZimmermanSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
429 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
VAZ093-096-524-525-252100-
Isle of Wight VA-Hampton/Poquoson VA-Newport News VA-Suffolk VA-
429 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Isle of
Wight , the northeastern City of Suffolk, the City of Hampton and the
southern City of Newport News through 500 PM EDT...
At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crittenden, or near Smithfield, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Crittenden and Driver around 440 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Carrollton, Longview,
Benns Church, Huntersville, Wills Corner, Bethel Church, Hilton
Village, Chuckatuck, Lawson and Hobson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3687 7671 3704 7674 3705 7672 3709 7643
3709 7641 3710 7638 3692 7637 3692 7639
3690 7639 3690 7641 3688 7641 3684 7644
3681 7646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 273DEG 20KT 3690 7658
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
ZimmermanSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
449 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
VAZ095-097-098-252115-
Norfolk/Portsmouth VA-Chesapeake VA-Virginia Beach VA-
449 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of , the City of
Norfolk, the central City of Chesapeake, the City of Portsmouth and
the City of Virginia Beach through 515 PM EDT...
At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Princess Anne to Bowers Hill. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Regent University and Princess Anne around 455 PM EDT.
Kempsville around 500 PM EDT.
Churchland around 505 PM EDT.
Downtown Portsmouth around 510 PM EDT.
Virginia Beach, Old Dominion University, Downtown Norfolk, Norfolk
State University, Ocean View, Portsmouth, Ghent, Norfolk NAS and
Norview around 515 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include South Norfolk, Rudee
Heights, Portlock, Mount Pleasant, Princess Anne Plaza, Herberts
Corner, Oceana NAS, Macons Corner, Pungo and Greenbrier.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3667 7605 3672 7647 3680 7646 3683 7645
3698 7632 3695 7610 3695 7595 3693 7594
3690 7594 3680 7592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 209DEG 19KT 3673 7609 3678 7644
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
WraySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
530 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
NCZ017-102-252215-
Eastern Currituck NC-Western Currituck NC-
530 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Currituck County through 615 PM EDT...
At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Currituck, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibilty and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Currituck around 540 PM EDT.
Knotts Island around 600 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Barco, Snowden,
Waterlily, Gregory, Sligo, Maple and Shawboro.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3636 7611 3639 7615 3640 7616 3645 7616
3655 7601 3655 7587 3641 7579 3635 7609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 243DEG 18KT 3643 7607
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
WrayThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:52 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The westbound left shoulder, left lane, left center lane, and right center lane were closed due to standing water on interstate 264.
Tatemstown Road was reported to be underwater.
Midtown tunnel was flooded due to heavy rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1112558, 1112568, 1112574.