Tornadoes and Hail in Arkansas, June 25 to 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

CDFNT was located acrs NW AR early this aftn, with main push of
drier air still lagging further to the NW. Ahead of the fntl bndry,
early aftn temps have quickly warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s,
with corresponding heat indices ranging fm 105 to 113 acrs the
advisory area.

The potential for strong/svr storms acrs much of the FA wl be the
focus in the near term. CAM guidance has contd to indc convective
initiation acrs N AR and within the last hour a few returns have
shown up on radar. The activity eventually working acrs central and
southern AR tngt.

The LZK 12Z sounding showed SBCAPE near 2000 J/KG and a MUCAPE just
over 3200 J/KG. Expect our 20Z special raob here wl show even more
unstable conds. Overall convective trends rmn similar, with large
hail being the main threat initially with any assocd supercells that
form. Eventually, this activity is progged to grow upscale into an
MCS that wl propagate quickly to the SE and bring with it the
potential for widespread damaging winds. The activity wl eventually
diminish later tngt as it works into far Srn AR.

The aforementioned fntl bndry wl be pushed into southern AR by early
Mon assocd with the decaying convection. Trended lower with
dewpoints Mon aftn compared to guidance. Readings by Mon aftn wl be
in the 50s acrs N AR, 60s in central sections and 70s south. The
resulting fcst heat indices Mon aftn wl rmn below advisory criteria
over all but a few far southern counties. Have opted to hold off on
any new headlines attm. Summertime conds wl prevail thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

By Wed, a beefy upper ridge will continue expanding Ewrd with the
ridge axis directly over AR by Thurs/Fri. Embedded within the
broader ridge will be a 594+ dam closed upper cyclone stretching
from AR Swrd to the Gulf, and with H500 progs of that nature,
significant heat remains likely with air temps near/exceeding 100 F
for at least a few consecutive days mid/late week.

Unfortunately, coinciding with these rising temps will be a Nwrd
surge of moisture with dewpoint temps in the 70s F likely over much
of the area and especially across Ern AR (values may reach 80 F in
the MS River Delta). This will drive heat indices well into advisory
criteria with some locations likely seeing heat index nearing -- or
in some cases, exceeding -- 115 F on Thurs, even after blending fcst
temps down some to account for ongoing warm bias in the NBM data.

Nighttime lows in the 70s and 80s F and high relative humidity
values will prevent any sensible recovery from daytime heat stress
with dangerous conditions persisting overnight Wed thru Sat.
Excessive heat headlines may be necessary across some portions of
the area with more widespread concern on Thurs.

Rain will be scant thru much of the period as upper disturbances are
routed around the Nrn periphery of upper ridging. The one exception
to this will be Wed as a fast-moving wave rides SEwrd along the
leading edge of the NEwrd building upper ridge. Given the mesoscale-
driven nature of summer convective complexes, confidence in seeing
appreciable precip is low, but some potential exists and that could
lead to slightly lower temps compared to the current fcst.

By the upcoming weekend, upper ridging will be suppressed as upper
troughing moves across the Midwest and pushes a summer cold front in
from the N. In addition to some abatement of heat/humidity, more
widespread precip is expected by Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

CDFNT was situated acrs NW AR, just to the south of KHRO and KBPK.
Convection is expected to fire in the vcnty of this bndry later
this aftn. The activity is progged to organize into an MCS as it
pushes into central and southern AR into this evening. Have tweaked
timing just a bit, with mainly MVFR/some IFR conds expected with
storms. Biggest impact wl be the gusty winds, with tempo groups
mentioned gusts of 40 to 45 kts included for the south half of the
FA. Activity wl diminish later tngt, with some lingering rain chcs
for south AR early Mon. Outside of convection, VFR conds wl prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  94  65  94 /  30   0   0  10
Camden AR         73  93  74  96 /  60  30  20  10
Harrison AR       64  89  63  91 /  10   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    73  93  72  96 /  70  10  20  10
Little Rock   AR  74  94  73  96 /  60  10  10  10
Monticello AR     73  93  75  96 /  70  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      71  93  69  95 /  70  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR  66  90  63  92 /  10   0   0  10
Newport AR        69  93  67  93 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     73  93  73  94 /  80  10  20  10
Russellville AR   71  94  69  95 /  40   0  10  10
Searcy AR         70  93  68  94 /  50   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      73  92  71  94 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
240 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-261000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
240 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening as a front drops further into the state. Very large hail
and widespread damaging winds will be the primary threats. A brief
tornado may also be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices will remain above 105 degrees for a large portion of
the state into early this evening. Only north central into
northwest Arkansas may remain below the 105 degree heat index
mark.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A break from the excessive heat will be seen Monday and Tuesday.
Hot and humid conditions will return later next week, primarily
Wednesday through Friday of next week. Heat index values will warm
over 105, possibly over 110 at times, as well as afternoon high
temperatures at or above 100 for many areas.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening across much
of Arkansas.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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