Despite the anomalous ridge of high pressure, a couple of scattered thunderstorms form and move across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, bringing damaging winds to Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Despite the anomalous ridge of high pressure, a couple of scattered thunderstorms form and move across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, bringing damaging winds to Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 2:16 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Key Messages: 1. Continued hot and muggy conditions Saturday, with near Heat Advisory criteria. 2. Higher chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon, especially across northeast TN and southwest VA. A few isolated showers and storms may be ongoing this evening, mainly along the high terrain of the Appalachians, but should dissipate with loss of day time heating. Any areas that saw isolated showers and storms throughout the day today will likely see fog tonight. Saturday, another hot and muggy day in store with Heat Index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s, just below Heat Advisory criteria of 105 deg F. The ridge begins to flatten tomorrow in response to an upper level trough to our north. Some weak 500mb vorticity within the trough base may help to set off showers and storms tomorrow afternoon to our north. If this occurs, then convection would likely drift down across northeast TN and southwest VA during the afternoon/early evening hours. Confidence in coverage is low though as CAMs arne't in good agreement. Otherwise, slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and storms elsewhere due to the lowered heights. However, NAM soundings show a weak mid-level cap in place through the day which may help to suppress convection. With little to no shear in place, the main threats with tomorrow's storms will be isolated damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The wind threat is due to dry air in the mid levels. The heavy rainfall threat is due to above normal PWs of 1.75 to near 1.9 inches, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Key Messages: 1. Chances for thunderstorm activity on Sunday, with drying conditions forecast for next week. However, the pattern supports MCS activity so don't be surprised if rain chances go up with time. Discussion: Through much of the extended period, the region will remain within northwest flow aloft with an area of low pressure across Hudson Bay, and a dominate ridge anchored over the four-corners and plains. The main question through the long term period will be how the strength of these two systems play out. With the persistent northwest flow expected, temperatures will likely be cooler than what we've experienced the past several days, and this is certainly being modeled with the 850mb thermal ridge remaining across the plains. Saturday night through Sunday presents the best chances at precipitation with a couple of upper level disturbances moving across a moist and humid airmass. Monday through midweek, surface high pressure moves into the Ohio valley while surface flow veers toward the north advecting a drier airmass. The drier airmass will likely limit convection during the day, with the exception of the higher terrain locations. In this pattern, MCS activity could propagate across portions of the area, although determining that at this range is highly uncertain. The forecast will carry a dry forecast for now Monday through Wednesday. Increasing southerly boundary layer flow Thursday and Friday will result in increasing moisture and the return of slightly higher chances of convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is a very low chance that an isolated storm may impact one of the terminals this afternoon and early evening, but too low to even mention VCTS in TAFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 96 74 95 / 10 20 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 94 72 91 / 10 30 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 73 94 72 91 / 10 30 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 69 86 / 20 50 60 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM... AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 326 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-291930- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 326 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 /226 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Hot temperatures and increasing humidity will result in heat index values around 100 for most of the Valley through late this afternoon. Please continue to practice heat safety. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Very hot conditions will continue Saturday with temperatures far into the 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees across the central and southern Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon hours with isolated damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not needed at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
354 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023
VAZ006-282030-
Russell VA-
354 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Russell
County through 430 PM EDT...
At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davenport, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Cleveland Va, Honaker, Dye and Rosedale.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3704 8182 3696 8178 3695 8182 3692 8185
3690 8227 3700 8229 3700 8227 3699 8226
3704 8217 3704 8212 3705 8211 3704 8208
3705 8204 3707 8202 3712 8201 3713 8193
3714 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 259DEG 20KT 3703 8213
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BWThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:20 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread trees were blown down county wide by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several reports of trees blown down by severe winds near Castlewood.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1110879, 1110880.