A mid atmospheric disturbance moved across an unstable air mass across NY which led to scattered thunderstorms moving across the area with one storm producing isolated damage in VT.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A mid atmospheric disturbance moved across an unstable air mass across NY which led to scattered thunderstorms moving across the area with one storm producing isolated damage in VT.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 12:35 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this afternoon and evening tied to a strong upper level low and ample daytime heating. A few severe wind gusts are possible in the stronger storms, with small hail and only brief heavy rain expected. Chances of thunderstorms decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday, but conditions trend muggy with a chance of excessive heat late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 132 PM EDT Monday...Have added severe wording to the forecast as we are now under a severe thunderstorm watch. Adjusted forecast to reflect current trends. Previous discussion follows. Previous Discussion... We continue to ramp up our thunderstorm chances for today as ingredients look to come together for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. Have added small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain wording to thunderstorms today, with scattered storms easily capable of those hazards. Storm mode will mainly be discrete, ordinary cells with some multi cell clusters given limited deep layer shear and surface boundaries. Greatest coverage of these storms will likely be between 2 PM and 5 PM, but additional strong thunderstorms are possible during the evening hours as mid-level lapse rates remain favorable for lingering instability. Greatest probabilities of severe wind gusts (in excess of 58 mph) will be in our region relative to areas further south, as greatest overlap of favorable instability and shear will coincide with peak heating. A lower but non-zero risk exists for large hail, with slightly greatest odds being across our southern zones. An elevated mixed layer will cross the region, helping boost thickness of the hail growth zone. Effective bulk shear will initially be limited to around 20 knots before increasing during the afternoon hours to at or above 30 knots, supporting this hail risk when combined with pockets of MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and relatively low freezing levels near 10,000 feet. Will also be concerned with potential downbursts with steep low level lapse rates/inverted V soundings. Mixing depth ahead of convection looks rather impressive, all the way up to the freezing level. Conditions should gradually quiet down tonight as the trough flattens out and some negative potential vorticity advection moves overhead. With better convergence to our south and east, organized thunderstorms are more likely east of our region on Tuesday. However, with the trough axis still to our west, still have lingering, shower and thunderstorm chances, especially in northern areas, through much of the remainder of the period. Any thunderstorms on Tuesday will be more of a pulse-type, isolated stronger type of storm. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s; however, dew points should trend lower tomorrow as low level winds shift westerly, dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s during the afternoon for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 412 AM EDT Monday...Looks like a mostly dry period with brief ridging building in. Highs generally top out in the 80s on Wednesday, with the best chance of upper 80s in the Champlain Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 412 AM EDT Monday...Temperatures rise to near 90 heading into the latter half of the work week as upper ridging builds into our area. Confidence is still low on how hot it gets as shortwave energy may be embedded in the overall ridging. Regardless of whether we hit 90F in actual temperatures, max heat index values should still top out in the low to mid 90s because dew points could approach 70F. Heat headlines might eventually be needed but for now, we have highlighted the slight risk for excessive heat late week in the HWO and Graphical HWO. It will not be all that unusual as late July is climatologically the warmest time of the year for North Country. Heading towards Saturday, some of the long range models like the GFS such as the GFS are advertising a rather sharp drop in dew points into the upper 30s to lower 40s. That would be indicative of a sharp cold front with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. However, mid range models differ greatly with regards to the timing of the cold front and in some cases, whether the cold front clears the region at all. While we do lose the Greenland block which allows the disturbances to become more progressive (i.e. reduces the likelihood of widespread hydrologic concerns), our region remains under the influence of the upper low near Hudson Bay. While certainly possible, the odds of a more drastic change to a more continental polar (cP) air mass are not particularly high this week. The other potential issue to bear watching is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke from western Canada because of the more favorable jet pattern. At this time, it looks like the smoke should generally remain aloft, leading to potential hazy skies around mid week. Confidence in smoke modeling is low at the mid range time frame, so have omitted any mention of smoke in the forecast for now. It is also worth noting that the CPC is now advertising a 50 to 60 percent chance of below normal temperatures across much of New England in their latest 8 to 14 day outlook, which is just outside the forecast period. Nonetheless, there is quite a bit of variation among models which is normal for 7 days out. So largely stuck to blended guidance for the long term forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Scattered, loosely organized thunderstorms will move through the airspace this afternoon between 18Z and 00Z, with at least an hour or two of VCTS indicated. A direct hit is most likely at SLK and PBG where storms are most likely to be numerous. Stronger storms may have large hail and damaging wind gusts, but probabilities are too low to indicate in TAF. Aside from any thunderstorm wind gusts, winds should trend calm towards 00Z, supporting another round of fog at MPV and potentially at SLK, especially if rainfall is appreciable. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 136 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-251745- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor- Eastern Windsor- 136 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Excessive heat is possible in the Thursday through Friday timeframe. Maximum heat index values may rise into the low to mid 90s in valley locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1158 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
NYZ034-241700-
Western Essex NY-
1158 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Essex
County through 100 PM EDT...
At 1158 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Indian Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Newcomb, Vanderwhacker Mountain, and Tahawus.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4381 7408 4381 7412 4383 7415 4382 7419
4381 7421 4392 7433 4394 7431 4397 7426
4399 7426 4413 7411 4388 7382 4380 7405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 230DEG 20KT 4385 7428
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ClaySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1241 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
NYZ030-031-241745-
Southern Franklin NY-Western Clinton NY-
1241 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Clinton
and northeastern Franklin Counties through 145 PM EDT...
At 1241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Debar Mountain, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Debar Mountain, Bryants Mill, Duane Center, Owls Head, Chasm Falls,
and Wolf Pond.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4458 7425 4467 7434 4491 7411 4463 7395
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 237DEG 10KT 4467 7423
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ClaySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1251 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
NYZ027-029-030-241745-
Northern Franklin NY-Southeastern St. Lawrence NY-
Southern Franklin NY-
1251 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Franklin and east central St. Lawrence Counties through 145 PM EDT...
At 1251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Ozonia, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lake Ozonia, Madawaska, Dickinson, Santa Clara, St. Regis Falls,
Azure Mountain, and Dickinson Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4438 7464 4452 7481 4476 7456 4451 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 229DEG 10KT 4451 7465
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ClayPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM Hail 3 WNW Schroon Lake 43.84N 73.78W
07/24/2023 E1.25 inch Essex NY Trained Spotter
Hoffman Road
&&
Event Number BTV2302110
NEILESSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
NYZ027-030-031-241830-
Northern Franklin NY-Southern Franklin NY-Western Clinton NY-
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Clinton
and northeastern Franklin Counties through 230 PM EDT...
At 148 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bryants Mill, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Malone, Burke, Debar Mountain, Merrill, Bryants Mill, Chateaugay,
Lyon Mountain, Earlville, Chazy Lake, Whippleville, Duane Center,
Burke Center, Ellenburg Mountain, Harrigan, Ellenburg Center, Owls
Head, Chasm Falls, Standish, Brainardsville, and Wolf Pond.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern New York.
&&
LAT...LON 4469 7374 4459 7422 4477 7442 4500 7406
4500 7400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 243DEG 24KT 4470 7419
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ClayPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg North Hudson 43.95N 73.73W
07/24/2023 Essex NY Law Enforcement
Trees down.
&&
Event Number BTV2302111
BANACOSThe Burlington radar (KCXX), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:27 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees downed by thunderstorm winds on Jersey road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1126057.