High Wind in Texas, March 2, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
200 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A 500 mb cyclone was located over the northern Chihuahua and
southern New Mexico as of 19Z, with a broad zone of moist,
isentropic ascent continuing to expand over the Permian Basin and
north-northeastward into the Rolling Plains, where high-based TCU
and ACCAS continue to develop along the pre-frontal surface trough
and orthogonally-positioned quasi-stationary front. At the surface,
a weak cyclone continues to become increasingly ill-defined across
the south-central South Plains as diabatic heating intensifies and
boundary-layer mixing deepens, with LIDAR data out of LBB indicating
the PBL depth exceeding 750 m and rising; and a better-defined
cyclone is centered to the south of the CWA near Big Spring. An
inverted, differential diabatic heating boundary is also present
along the western periphery of the weakening cyclone, evident on
both West Texas Mesonet and WSR-88D data; where a temperature
gradient of 10 degrees over 30 miles exists when crossing through
this east-west-oriented boundary. Temperatures on the north side of
this boundary are affected by the combination of cold air advection
from the weak, northerly winds; and as cirrus streaks continue to
advect northeastward towards the CWA as the closed cyclone aloft
nears.

Clear air scatterers detected by the KLBB WSR-88D also indicates a
localized area of convergence across the South Plains that becomes
increasingly divergent towards the edge of the Caprock Escarpment,
and this mass flux has resulted in the genesis of northeastward-
propagating billows on the north side of the aforementioned
boundary, indicating a stable boundary-layer profile compared to the
southern zones where shallow turrets beneath glaciating ACCAS in the
mid-levels exist. The South Plains will remain dry for the remainder
of the afternoon, as the bulk of the high-based convection to the
east of the edge of the Caprock Escarpment moves via advection with
the mean wind; and this convection will lose its surface-based
characteristics as it nears the Red River, with LCLs becoming rooted
above the boundary-layer where an even more-stable airmass exists
across southwestern Oklahoma. Therefore, severe-caliber hazards from
the scattered convection moving through the southeastern and eastern
Rolling Plains is expected to remain below severe limits. Though,
strong, gusty winds will be possible as the downdrafts associated
with the deepest cores penetrate through the Inverted-V PBL profile.

Further west, the eastward-advancing, Pacific cold front was located
across eastern New Mexico as per recent METAR data, with westerly
surface winds increasing to 20-35 mph in its wake. The largest
isallobaric response is expected to be south of the CWA as the core
of the 500 mb cyclone emerges over the northern Permian Basin, and
the Wind Advisory has been canceled for the Cochran County eastward
into Crosby County while being maintained for the southern row of
counties through 01Z this evening. Westerly surface winds will
diminish in speed after sunset while also shifting to the north
following the passage of a secondary cold front on the backside of
the departing mid/upper-level trough and the attendant cyclone.
Based on the current position of the 500 mb cyclone, the northern
periphery of largely difluent, mid-level flow will exist beneath the
left-exit region of a 140 kt high-level jet streak, facilitating
deformation bands to develop by sunset across the extreme southern
Texas Panhandle. The precipitation shield will sag southward towards
midnight, with the best coverage of rain showers and perhaps a
lightning strike or two across the Rolling Plains with lighter QPF
expected across the Caprock.

Due to the progressiveness of the mid/upper-level trough as it
attains a negative-tilt tonight, the deformation bands will
propagate quickly to the southeast with precipitation coming to an
end entirely across the Caprock near and after midnight. Therefore,
no mixed-phased precipitation is expected as the columns begin to
dry before becoming supersaturated with respect to ice and as
surface temperatures remain above freezing despite what would
normally be favorable profiles for wet-bulbing (i.e., mixed-phased
precipitation falling with surface temperatures above freezing).
Rain/thunderstorm chances will end entirely prior to sunrise
tomorrow, with strong NVA overspreading the CWA as mid/upper-level
flow attenuates to a near-zonal state atop a weak surface ridge.
This will give way to a pleasant Friday, with light, westerly winds;
a clear sky, and mild temperatures.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 156 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Quiet and uneventful weather remains the theme from Friday night
through at least early next week under zonal flow. Following a weak
and dry cold front edging south toward daybreak Saturday, breezy
downslope winds resume for Sunday and Monday with the former looking
the warmest. NBM's maxT and winds for Sunday are still lagging the
much warmer MEX and ECX numbers, so nudged these up closer to
CONSMOS given the pattern.

Things turn more interesting beginning Tuesday as a stronger cold
front dives south ahead of an expansive surface ridge anchored in
Nunavut. Opted to undercut the NBM's temps for Tue-Wed as this
surface ridge is only progged to deepen and build farther south per
global models and their ensembles. Clarity is much less regarding
the upper pattern by midweek as some models (GFS and CMC) favor
continued zonal flow with periods of moist isentropic ascent atop
the shallow cold dome, whereas the ECMWF shunts this ascent to our
east ahead of an upper trough tracking to our north. Such details
are too vague this far out, so will leave the NBM's low shower
chances intact from Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Strong, westerly winds will increase quickly this afternoon
following the passage of a Pacific cold front. Gusts up to 40 kt
will be possible for a few hours at KLBB, with gusts decreasing in
magnitude with north and northeastward extent towards KPVW and
KCDS. VSBY restrictions from BLDU are not anticipated at KLBB as
winds will gradually decelerate heading into the evening. Rain
showers will develop late this evening and into the overnight
hours along the backside of a departing upper-level disturbance,
and CIGs should remain VFR. No thunderstorms are expected to
affect the terminals, though the potential for convection exists
far to the south and southeast of the terminals this afternoon.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ033>036-
039>043.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ039>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
155 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

TXZ021>044-032000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
155 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CST today across the
far southern South Plains. West and southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts up to 45 mph will result in blowing dust and reduced
visibility at times.

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the South Plains and far southwest Rolling Plains today. A
Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the far southeast
Rolling Plains with gusty winds as the main threat. The chance for
any severe storms remains low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Very warm, dry and breezy conditions on Sunday will result in
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for much of the
region.