Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1141 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will become more of a southwest flow later
today and into tomorrow as an upper trough digs deeper down
California and to southern Nevada by tomorrow evening.  We will
still remain dry and breezy to windy today given the lee surface low
that has strengthened in easter CO. A shortwave will move across
Wyoming and Nebraska tonight leaving a weak back door cold front in
its wake.  The front is expected to move in from the northeast and
stall out somewhere in the southwest Panhandles.  Winds will turn
back southerly tomorrow with this larger system from the west
approaching.  As a result warm southerly flow will bring another day
of mild temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.  It is possible that
the northern Panhandles may not warm up above 60 due to the
lingering cooler air from the back door front.  However, upper 50s
are certainly expected with this system.  Surface low tomorrow will
be in northeast New Mexico and therefore much closer, so the breezy
winds will be more isolated to the southwest tomorrow, and by mid to
late afternoon the low is expected to track southeast over the area
making the winds even lighter.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Winter weather is forecast to make a return to the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Thursday into early Friday morning. Some
snowfall is possible for most of the area, with the highest chance
for accumulating snow in the northwestern combined Panhandles.
Increasing temperatures are expected going into this weekend with
highs in the 60s and 70s across the area.

A H500 trough will be located just to the west of the forecast
area at the start of the long term forecast period. This
positively tilted feature will continue to move east during the
daytime on Thursday. Closer to the surface, a cold front will move
south across the Plains and could be moving into the northern
areas by the beginning of this forecast period. The air mass
behind this cold front is not all that strong, with the H850
temperatures in the -3 to -6 C range. With this front not being
overly strong, current thinking is that the front will slow down
as the surface low moves across portions of the TX Plains on
Thursday. There is still some concern that the front could end up
a row of counties or two further south than currently forecast,
but there is still a few days to figure out if that scenario will
come to fruition. The aforementioned low will have moisture wrap
around the north and northwestern sides of this feature. With the
synoptic lift in place, precipitation is expected to develop
across the Panhandles. The type will be dependent upon the
positioning of the cold front, with snow favored north of the
front and rain to the south. With this system moving quickly
across the area, snow accumulations will be limited, with the best
chance for accumulating snow in the northwestern Panhandles.
Current NBM and DESI probabilities give the far northwestern part
of the CWA a 50 to 60 percent chance of receiving an inch of snow
from this system. Other areas will likely see a dusting to a half
inch of snow with the impacts being fairly limited. Some breezy
to gusty winds are expected behind the front in the evening on
Thursday into the early morning Friday. If any snow is falling
during this period, reduced visibilities are possible due to the
falling snow and winds. Precipitation should be east of the area
by the morning commute on Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will range from the 30s in the north to
60s in the south due to the cold front separating the warmer and
colder air masses. Warming temperatures are expected on Friday,
with some areas in the northwest potentially being a few degrees cooler
due to lingering snowpack from Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures
this weekend into early next week will increase into the 60s and
70s by Sunday. Westerly flow aloft will prevail through early next
week so breezy days are possible going into the new work week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

For the 06Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal
sites early in this forecast cycle. Periods of high level clouds
are anticipated. However, no precipitation is expected. Overall,
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA
through late Wednesday evening.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

West southwest winds will continue today with RH values in the 6 to
9 percent range, and winds in the 30 to 35 mph range.  RFTI's have
been coming in at widespread 6 to 7, and even some sites showing an
8.  Areas that were only expected to have RFTI's of 5 or 6 like
Lipscomb are currently coming in at 7. Fuels remain very dry and
conditions remain critical for the rest of the afternoon and evening
across the entire Panhandles.

Tomorrow we'll have some breezy winds in the southwest and dry
conditions again, but right not not near to the extent as today.
Will continue to hold the Fire Weather Watch for now as we may only
need a Fire Danger Statement with RFTI's 1 to 2 for the most part.
If winds come in stronger than we'll likely need to upgrade, but
will defer to the midnight shift for that decision.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  66  38  56 /   0   0   0  50
Beaver OK                  30  59  30  46 /   0   0   0  50
Boise City OK              25  58  28  39 /   0   0   0  80
Borger TX                  35  67  37  57 /   0   0   0  50
Boys Ranch TX              33  67  35  50 /   0   0   0  60
Canyon TX                  36  68  36  57 /   0   0   0  40
Clarendon TX               40  66  38  63 /   0   0   0  30
Dalhart TX                 26  62  29  44 /   0   0   0  70
Guymon OK                  28  60  30  44 /   0   0   0  60
Hereford TX                36  68  36  55 /   0   0   0  50
Lipscomb TX                33  60  33  50 /   0   0   0  40
Pampa TX                   35  64  37  57 /   0   0   0  40
Shamrock TX                39  65  36  62 /   0   0   0  30
Wellington TX              42  67  38  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for TXZ011-012-016>018-
     317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
822 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
822 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible in
the southwestern Panhandles on Wednesday.

Winter weather will be possible on Thursday, with possible
accumulating snow across portions of the Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon.