The drought intensified across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland during the month of March and remained about the same intensity elsewhere.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The drought intensified across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland during the month of March and remained about the same intensity elsewhere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:49 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1049 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Dewpoints will steadily increase across the southeast half of the area overnight, as dewpoints rise into the 50s and 60s. Stratus will also overspread this same area. Overnight lows will be warmer than what we have experienced the last few mornings, with most locations dropping into the 50s and are far southeast counties only reaching the lower 60s. West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft through the next 24 hours. Models are indicating a disturbance in this flow tracking across the region Wednesday morning. This may result in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the Concho Valley east into the Heartland. Most of this activity should be east of the area by the afternoon hours. Highs on Wednesday will again be well above seasonal normals, but a little extra cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly cooler than what we are expecting today. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...Cold front Thursday will lead to the possibility of isolated thunderstorms, strong winds, and critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon... A strong mid-level low will be moving from southern California eastward at the start of the period. Southwesterly winds aloft will set up as a result and will allow Pacific moisture to be ushered into our area at upper levels. Some upper level disturbances will move through Wednesday night, providing weak lift across our area. This could result in a few showers, but the rain should be primarily to our east, where moisture and instability are higher. A few of the high res models are showing isolated thunderstorms forming in our southeastern counties late Wednesday night, just east of the dry line across our area. They could produce some light rain amounts and lightning. If they do develop, they should move out to the northeast by early Thursday. Thursday will be the most important day weather-wise for this time period. The mid-level low mentioned above will be moving just north of our area Thursday afternoon and evening. A surface low will develop ahead of the mid level low in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle area. This low will drag a Pacific cold front through our area Thursday afternoon into the evening. Prior to the front, low level winds will be from the south/southeast allowing gulf moisture to increase humidities near the surface for our southeastern and eastern counties. As for the possibility of precipitation, the greatest chances for higher rain amounts and severe weather are to our east. However, the SPC does have the eastern Big Country and Heartland regions under a marginal risk for severe weather. We could see thunderstorms begin to develop in our eastern counties where the instability is greater, but models are still in disagreement on precipitation location and amounts for our area. Behind the front on Thursday, strong winds at 850mb (~60kts) and 500mb(~100kts) could mix down, causing very windy conditions in the afternoon and evening. We will likely see strong winds with sustained speeds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts of 55 mph possible. These winds, along with low RH values behind the front, could lead to dangerous fire weather conditions Thursday (see more in the fire weather discussion). After the system moves through, temperatures will be slightly cooler for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures right around normal. We should begin to warm up again on Sunday as a high pressure starts to force some weak ridging to our south. Winds will be weaken after Thursday and we should remain dry for the rest of the extended period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 VFR conditions currently present at all sites. Winds will remain light and variable through the remainder of the overnight hours. Some low clouds will begin to work their way north and west into the KJCT terminal in the next few hours. This cloud cover will expand into the KSOA and KBBD terminals by early morning. Confidence has increased in ceilings dropping to IFR for a few hours so have included IFR groupings for our southern 3 terminals. KSJT will likely see a brief drop to MVFR before quickly lifting back to VFR. All other sites should lift to VFR by mid to late morning. Winds at our southern terminals will begin to pick up by early afternoon with the introduction of some sub-20kt gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening... The main concern is the potential for critical fire weather conditions across all of West Central Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A cold front will track across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, while RH values drop to 15 to 25 percent by early afternoon. As the front moves through, winds will become west and increase to 25 to 40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph. This in combination with RH values below 20 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions. Winds will eventually begin to decrease by late evening, but remain between 15 and 25 mph through the early morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon and night, mainly across our eastern counties and across the Big Country. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau, as minimum RH values fall to 10 to 15 percent, but 20 foot winds generally remain below 15 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are again possible on Friday, mainly across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 52 77 56 78 / 10 10 0 40 San Angelo 53 80 55 79 / 10 0 0 20 Junction 60 88 59 84 / 10 0 20 30 Brownwood 55 79 58 80 / 30 30 10 60 Sweetwater 53 76 54 73 / 10 0 0 20 Ozona 55 83 56 77 / 0 0 10 10 Brady 60 83 61 81 / 20 10 10 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher- Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...50
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 142 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-011945- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 142 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight into Tuesday, mainly across the Concho Valley and Heartland. The main concern will be dangerous lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A fire weather watch is in effect Thursday afternoon and evening for all of West Central Texas...for very strong west to northwest winds and low humidity values. In addition, motorists should use extra caution, and be alert to sudden winds gusts, especially north to south roadways. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northwest Hill Country Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across our eastern counties and the Big Country, Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The main concerns will be dangerous lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Haskell County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Fisher County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Jones County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Shackelford County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated extreme drought conditions across Nolan County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Taylor County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Callahan County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Sterling County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Coke County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Runnels County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Brown County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across McCulloch County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across San Saba County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Sutton County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe/extreme drought conditions across Menard County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Mason County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Kimble County during the month of March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088226, 1088227, 1088228, 1088229, 1088230, 1088231, 1088232, 1088233, 1088234, 1088235, 1088236, 1088237, 1088238, 1088239, 1088241, 1088242, 1088243.