NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 11:36 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 11:36 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Latest surface observations across Deep South Texas already show
heat indices (HI) climbing above 100F for most locations late
this morning. Comparing with observations from about this time
yesterday morning, HI's are about a degree or two warmer on
average. With that said, decided to issue out a Heat Advisory for
all of Deep South Texas, with the exception of the Barrier
Island, between 1 PM and 7 PM CDT again today. Models indicate
some dry air mixing in across Zapata, northern Starr, and Jim Hogg
Counties after noon, which may inhibit HI rising above 110F.
Nevertheless, impacts will still be the same.
It is extremely important to keep yourself cool and hydrated this
week, especially if working outdoors for a prolonged period of
time. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible.
67-Mejia
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
We'll start by looking back on Monday, not for the purpose of
"Monday morning quarterbacking," but rather to enter into the
official record what occurred and what did not occur.
Forecast highs were as follows: BRO 94, PIL 93, HRL 97, MFE 98, TXW
97, EBG 98, APY 103, HBV 100, and BKS 102. Observed highs were as
follows: BRO 95, PIL 94, HRL 95, MFE 98, TXW 99, EBG 98, APY 103,
HBV 101, and BKS 102. The forecast highs were the result of starting
with NBM guidance and adjusting downwards based upon the previous
few days of observations, so when compared with actual observed high
temperatures, forecaster intervention shows value.
At 125 PM CDT Monday, a Heat Advisory was issued for all of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley except the island portions of
Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. This followed a 325 AM CDT
Monday Special Weather Statement where heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees were expected for the afternoon hours of Monday. The
criteria for a Heat Advisory for WFO BRO is heat indices of greater
than or equal to 111 degrees sustained for greater than or equal to
two consecutive hours. Looking at observed heat indices for the
above mentioned sites, the Heat Advisory appears to have verified
for only Hidalgo County and Brooks County. Again, this is not an
attempt to "Monday morning quarterback," but rather an attempt to
figure out where we are in order to know where we're going.
So, what does all of this mean for the short term forecast period
(Tuesday and Wednesday)? CONSShort was once again the model of
choice for dewpoint temperatures. Meanwhile, for high temperatures,
NBM was the starting point, and adjusting downwards of several
degrees was performed, especially over the central and western
portions of the BRO CWFA, where (likely) unrealistic highs were
progged by the NBM (APY 110-111, HBV 104-106, BKS 105-107, MFE 102-
104). The combination of the forecast ambient air temperatures and
forecast atmospheric moisture yields heat index values generally in
the range of 106 to 110 degrees for the afternoon hours of the
period, with isolated pockets of heat indices of 111 to 112 degrees.
Thus, will once again issue a Special Weather Statement for expected
heat index values today.
Finally, why has there been a disconnect between NBM's scorching
high temperatures and actual observed values over the past several
days? One reason could be the position of the 500 mb ridge, which is
progged by model guidance to remain centered over northeast Mexico
through at least the next 48 hours. Past exceptional heat events
were the result of a mid-level high centered more over the Four
Corners area of the United States. Another reason could be soil
moisture. On March 28, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated Extreme
Drought within Zapata County, Jim Hogg County, Brooks County, most
of Kenedy County, and the western portion of Starr County, with the
remainder of the BRO CWFA (Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties)
generally in Severe Drought. As of June 6, no drought exists
anywhere within the BRO CWFA, the likely result of multiple
mesoscale convective systems producing scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, many strong to severe. A portion of the solar
insolation is possibly being diverted for the evaporation of this
abundant soil moisture instead of being used 100 percent for heating
the air column, which would occur if soils were parched, such as in
a drought situation. How long the soil moisture will be a factor
remains to be seen in the coming days, especially since the 141 PM
CDT Monday Temperature and Precipitation Summary for Deep South
Texas lists .38 inches of evaporation for Brownsville, .36 inches
for Falcon Dam, .27 inches for McCook, .40 inches for Rio Grande
City, and .15 inches for Weslaco.
The bottom line? It's hot, and with the position of the above
mentioned 500 mb ridge possibly shifting more north and west over
time, the heat will be maintained, if not increased. Combined with
steadily drying soils and no significant precipitation likely with
the ridge hanging around, the likelihood of a widespread Heat
Advisory, and possibly Excessive Heat Warning, will increase with
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
The 500mb ridge settles across Deep South Texas by the weekend and
holds into next week, with surface high pressure across the Gulf.
This bumps heights toward 595 dam and will allow temperatures to
gain a few degrees, near record highs, through the remainder of
the long term period. So far this week, highs have underachieved
by a few degrees, but as the ridge builds stronger and the
overnight heat continues, there should be little to stop the
triple digit heat from taking over. Expect Heat Indices to top out
near 110-115 and locally higher every afternoon, driving Heat
Advisories through the period, although model guidance has not
been handling dewpoints very well either. Have trimmed dewpoints a
little lower.
Fire weather may become more of an issue over the weekend or into
early next week, with RH values along and west of US281 dropping
below 30 percent and potentially into the teens across Zapata
County, with 20 foot winds becoming breezy each afternoon. Still
feel most areas will fall below any fire weather criteria, but
current guidance now leans towards Fire Danger Statements
potentially Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
MVFR ceilings over BRO will gradually lift and dissolve to VFR
sometime around 18-1830z. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of the afternoon. Widespread MVFR
ceilings are expected to return early this evening, after sunset,
and persist through mid-morning Wednesday. South/southeast winds
will be gusty this afternoon (gusts between 25-30 knots), even
gustier Wednesday afternoon with frequent gusts near 30 knots late
in the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Now through Wednesday...Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly
under 4.5 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An
enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will
produce moderate to breezy winds and generally moderate seas along
the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Small Craft Exercise
Caution is likely, especially for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of
Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore, and a Small
Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out for this area on Wednesday.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Southeasterly winds will maintain
Small Craft Caution conditions each afternoon into early evening
across the bay and nearshore waters, shifting further offshore
each night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed into Thursday and
again Monday, but at this time, it does not seem to be a slam dunk
SCA event.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 101 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 76 106 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 87 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 77 92 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...67-Mejia