A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) shifting across the Southeast United States encountered an environment displaying modest instability and shear, leading to severe thunderstorms across southeast Georgia.
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The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) shifting across the Southeast United States encountered an environment displaying modest instability and shear, leading to severe thunderstorms across southeast Georgia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 3:34 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 434 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front could linger across the region through much of the week before shifting offshore or dissipating this weekend. A cold front should then approach the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 in effect until 10 PM... A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for counties along and south of Interstate 16 until 10 PM. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. Today: Latest water vapor revealed a vertically stacked low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon. At 850 MB, a cold front extends east from the vertically stacked low and then south and west across central South Carolina. Another weak low was analyzed at 850 MB near the TX/ NM border. This area extending down towards the DFW Metroplex forms a weak triple point where multiple rounds of convection initiated this morning. The remnant convection from this morning has formed an MCV that is responsible for the renewed convective development across Alabama this afternoon. The MCV will then approach the GA coast this evening and is forecast to initiate convection this evening. The evolution and northern extent of the convection is what is most uncertain today. The 13.12z KCHS sounding did reveal a substantial CAP in place around 750 MB (with a temperature around 12 degrees C). Taking a look at ACARS soundings, KSAV and KCHS both still show capping in place. The MCV will likely be able to erode and modify the CAP across the southern zones, while capping to the north will remain in place. Convection will then move into our GA zones around 4 to 5 PM and approach Savannah between 5 and 7 PM. The primary convective window looks to be from 6 to 10 PM. Towards the City of Charleston, most of the afternoon and evening looks dry as the capping remains in place. Severe Weather Potential: Any storms that form will have the potential to become severe this evening. Bulk shear values are forecast to be around 30 to 40 kts with MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Lapse rates above the low level inversion are fairly steep though and would support some storms becoming severe. Hodographs are also fairly straight in the lowest 6 KM with some splitting cells possible. This would mean that severe hail and strong/ damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats. This rather unidirectional low level flow is further supported by the VAD profile viewer on the SPC site. Overnight: Convection from this evening will come to an end with another batch of convection diving southeast from Texas. Confidence on whether the convection will hold together or not is very low. For now, will show showers and thunderstorms rapidly weakening as they approach the area. Expect low temperatures mostly in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday: A closed low pressure in the mid-levels will reside over the Great Lakes, with generally broad troughing over the forecast area to start the morning. As the day progresses a shortwave trough and associated vorticity maxima will ripple through the southeastern states, ejecting off the East Coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. At the surface a stationary front will remain draped across the Deep South and extending into the forecast area from west to east. Wednesday's forecast will be a challenging one. Some models have hinted that there will be some convection ongoing in the morning hours, which could have impacts for how much convection is able to fire off in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to upper 80s across the region, with dew points in the low to mid 70s. In the afternoon convective parameters are very favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm formation. ML CAPE values are forecast to be upwards of 2000 J/kg with shear values on the order of 40-45 knots. Additionally, model soundings show low level lapse rates around 7.8 C/km and DCAPE values around 1300 J/kg. Therefore there will be a risk for both damaging wind gusts as well as large hail. While the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will extend across the entire forecast area, the main threat area will be across southeastern GA to extreme southern SC, where dew points will likely remain slightly elevated in the lower to mid 70s. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked roughly the entire forecast area in a Slight Risk for Wednesday. Additionally PWAT values are forecast to increase to around 1.7-1.8" across the forecast area, with the highest values across southeastern GA. Therefore there will be a threat of heavy rainfall with the showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked southeastern SC in a Marginal Risk and southeastern GA in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Thursday: The mid-level closed low will progress eastward, positioning itself near northern ME before ejecting further northeast by Thursday night. In the wake of the mid-level low, an additional low will form over the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough will eject off the East Coast in the early morning hours while an additional shortwave ripples through Thursday afternoon. The weak stationary front will still be positioned within the vicinity of the forecast area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible. While convective parameters will once again be favorable, the upper level forcing isn't as strong as previous days. Heavy rainfall will again be possible as PWATs remain elevated. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked southeastern GA and extreme southeastern SC in a Marginal Risk, with a Slight Risk across extreme southeastern GA for Excessive Rainfall. Temperatures Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday: The aforementioned mid-level low over the Great Lakes will swing through NY and into New England on Friday, with broad troughing over the forecast area. Lacking in upper level forcing, precipitation coverage will be much less than previous days, with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from previous days, owing to additional sunshine. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid-level closed low will eject off the New England coast this weekend. Another mid-level low will form over the Great Plains and progress eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Generally the forecast area will remain in the southern periphery of broad upper level troughing through the period. This pattern will support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain right around normal with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... All TAF sites are currently VFR with winds out of the west and a surface cold front situated from a KCHS to KSAV to KRVJ line. Convection initiated upstream near KDFW this morning with the MCV now initiating convection across southern AL. This remnant MCV will continue to push east/ southeast this afternoon and approach the GA coastline this evening. Out ahead of the MCV, convection will continue to initiate. KCHS/ KJZI: Significant capping around 700 MB coupled with the MCV being well south of the Charleston terminals has cast significant doubt on the convective threat further north this afternoon. For now, have added a VCSH into the TAFs to account for weakening or dissipating convection as a potential outflow heads north. There is still a chance of thunder at these terminals, but the chances have come down since the 12z issuance from this morning. Another batch of convection will be approaching the area and rapidly decaying Wednesday morning. Confidence is again low here on coverage and even general occurrence. KSAV: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the region this afternoon and affect the Savannah terminal mainly between 6 and 10 PM. Convection will not be continuous through this period, but will likely come in the form of several thunderstorms near or at the terminal. There will be a chance for gusty winds and significantly reduced visibilities in any of the stronger storms. Another batch of convection will be approaching the area and rapidly decaying Wednesday morning. Confidence is again low here on coverage and even general occurrence. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at all terminals Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter a typical summertime pattern will setup and occasional flight restrictions will be possible with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Southwest flow will prevail today with wind speeds mostly topping out around 15 knots. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet. This evening, convection will then spread over the waters and produce frequent lightning, and locally strong wind gusts (possibly in excess of 35 knots). Special Marine Warnings will likely be needed for portions of the waters to account for these strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Outside of thunderstorms, seas should mostly be 2-3 feet. Wednesday through Saturday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the marine waters on Wednesday and Thursday as a stationary front lingers in the vicinity of the forecast area. Models are hinting at a local enhancement of the pressure gradient across the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Wind gusts could reach around 25 knots across the 20-60nm offshore GA waters during this time. A short-lived Small Craft Advisory could be required. Thereafter conditions are expected to remain below Advisory levels across the waters. Seas should average 2 to 4 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...CPM LONG TERM...CPM AVIATION...CPM/Haines MARINE...BSH/CPM/Haines
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 411 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 GAZ114>119-137>141-142015- Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham- Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh- Coastal McIntosh- 411 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Severe Thunderstorms: An unstable airmass will be present across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia into the middle of the week. Expect numerous thunderstorms Wednesday, some of which could become strong to severe during afternoon into evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024. GAZ087-088-099>101-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-142015- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Allendale-Hampton- Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Inland Jasper-Beaufort- Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-Tidal Berkeley- 411 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Severe Thunderstorms: An unstable airmass will be present across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia into the middle of the week. Expect numerous thunderstorms Wednesday, some of which could become strong to severe during afternoon into evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024. AMZ330-350-352-374-142015- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- 411 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Severe Thunderstorms: An unstable airmass will be present across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia into the middle of the week. Expect numerous thunderstorms Wednesday, some of which could become strong/severe during afternoon into evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time. AMZ354-142015- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 411 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Severe Thunderstorms: An unstable airmass will be present across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia into the middle of the week. Expect numerous thunderstorms Wednesday, some of which could become strong/severe during afternoon into evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
544 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
GAZ114-137-132215-
Tattnall-Long-
544 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LONG AND TATTNALL
COUNTIES...
At 544 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northeast
of Surrency to Odum, and moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar Indicated.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects.
Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Ludowici and Donald.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3192 8178 3165 8173 3165 8180 3167 8185
3171 8188 3173 8191 3175 8191 3176 8195
3179 8195 3178 8198 3182 8202 3181 8203
3183 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 262DEG 28KT 3181 8205 3168 8203
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPHThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:51 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 911 Call Center reported a tree down and across power lines on Kicklighter Street and a tree down along Beards Creek Church Road.
A Long County emergency manager reported a tree down on Lanier Road.
A 911 call center relayed a report of a tree down on a car along E B Cooper Highway and a downed tree on power lines which caused live wires to fall onto a residential home along the 300 Block of Screven Fork Road. Emergency management also reported a tree down on a mobile home in Spring Creek.
A 911 call center relayed a report of a large tree branch down on a car on Talmadge Road near Busbee Road.
A 911 call center reported numerous downed power lines in and around the town of Walthourville.
A 911 call center reported numerous trees down in the Richmond Hill area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1112729, 1112736, 1112731, 1112730, 1112733, 1112735.