Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 13 to 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Regional radar data indicates stronger storms moving through the
ARKLATEX vcty along a stalled bndry, where buoyancy and moisture are
much more prominent along the Srn periphery. Meanwhile, the
remainder of the FA remains mostly dry as of early Tues afternoon,
w/ scattered to broken Cu noted in most regions via vissat imgry.
Thru the remainder of the day, Chcs for scattered thunderstorms wl
remain prevalent across the S/Wrn and Srn periphery of AR as the
aforementioned stalled bndry wl continue to serve as a focal pt for
new storm development. Thru the overnight hours, covg of
precip/storms may expand N/wrd into Cntrl AR into the later
overnight/early morning hrs of Wed, depending on the development of
upstream storms/convection near the OK/KS border vcty. Severe
potential w/ storms over the next 24 hrs is expected to stay
somewhat isolated, w/ Ocsnl strong to severe storms capable of hail,
and strong to damaging winds. Heavy rainfall is also lkly to
accompany these storms, w/ the greatest confidence of higher QPF
residing over Srn AR, where training potential exists...some areas
could see upwards of one inch or more of rainfall thru Wed morning.

Wed thru Thurs, mean Wrly H500 flow wl reside over the Mid-South as
a cutoff upper low meanders over the Great Lakes/Midwest Region.
Most H500 guidance indicates several small perturbations maneuvering
thru the mean flow, and in conjunction w/ the stalled sfc bndry over
the ARKLATEX, daily rain/storm chances are set to persist thru the
remainder of the short term PD. Temps and sfc moisture/humidity wl
begin to moderate upwards by late in the PD, and particularly
heading into the long term, so enjoy the less oppressive condns
while they last folks!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

To begin the period, a frontal boundary is expected to move into the
state early in the period and stall out across the state. This will
promote the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the state. Severe weather chances will remain isolated with gusty
winds and hail the main hazards associated with these storms.

In regards to QPF amounts...it really just depends where storms
develop. However, through the period, QPF amounts up to inch will be
possible...although higher amounts will be for areas who see
multiple rounds of heavy rain. Many locations may only see up to
half and inch through the period. The heaviest and more widespread
rainfall is expected Saturday night as another cold front moves into
the state.

Warm temperatures and higher heat index values are expected through
the long term as the humidity returns to the state. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat
index values in the mid 90s to near 105 degrees possible. The
highest heat index values will be across portions of southern
Arkansas. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid
60s to mid 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

VFR conds were noted around the FA as of Tues afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA activity has dwindled over the area, w/ more prominent
TSRA noted in the ARKLATEX border vcty moving from WNW to ESE.
Otherwise, SCT to BKN low-clouds remain, but CIGs should stay at
VFR levels thru Tues evening. Lower CIGs may hold over Srn half of
the state overnight in closer proximity to the stationary front.
Additional round of SHRA/TSRA is expected Tues night with the
passage of an upper level disturbance. Greatest PoP chances
through the overnight PD will be over the Srn half of the state.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  86  64  88 /  40  50  20  20
Camden AR         66  85  67  88 /  90  50  60  20
Harrison AR       62  82  62  86 /  40  20  20  10
Hot Springs AR    66  85  66  91 /  70  50  40  20
Little Rock   AR  69  87  70  91 /  70  50  40  20
Monticello AR     68  88  69  89 /  90  50  70  30
Mount Ida AR      63  85  64  91 /  70  40  40  10
Mountain Home AR  61  83  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
Newport AR        67  85  67  87 /  30  50  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     67  86  68  88 /  80  50  60  30
Russellville AR   66  86  66  89 /  70  40  30  10
Searcy AR         66  85  67  89 /  60  50  30  20
Stuttgart AR      69  85  69  88 /  70  60  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...233
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...72

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-141915-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again later
Tuesday night. A few storms could become strong to severe with
large hail the primary hazard. The threat for large hail is mainly
over southwestern and southern portions of Arkansas. Locally heavy
rainfall could also be seen with stronger storms moving repeatedly
over the southern portions of the forecast area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be chances of thunderstorms each day. In general,
storms that become severe will be spotty, and hit and miss
downpours could result in localized flash flooding. A more organized
severe weather event is possible on Saturday as a new cold front
arrives from the Plains. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
main concerns.

By the weekend, temperatures will be well above average, and heat
index value will likely top 100 degrees mainly from Little Rock
southward.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

72/233